Electric Power Monthly! A day late because vacation.
November edition, for capacity changes and generation September 2020.
It finally happened. Coal rolling 12 month generation fell below that of nuclear.
After a relatively good August, September saw coal generation return to the previous pattern of decline.
Coal capacity was reduced by 650MW in September 2020, to 222,390.6MW. Forecast capacity reductions are unchanged at -4,785.4MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share dropped another 0.30% to 19.42%, a drop of 5.26% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. September 2020 generation was 68.4TWh compared to 85.9TWh in 2019, and rolling 12 month generation falling to 788.5TWh compared to 1,030.4TWh a year ago.
Nuclear capacity reduced by 601.4MW in September 2020, to 96,519.5MW. Planned capacity reductions increased by 2,300MW to -3,317.9MW. The increase is due to the planned closure of Exelon's plan in Byron, IL in September 2021. (In November 2021, Excelon's remaining Dresden, IL plant will also be closed, reducing nuclear generation capacity by another 1,797MW).
Nuclear generation was down in August 2020 (69.0TWh v 71.9TWh), with rolling generation at 798.5TWh compared with 803.8TWh to July 2019.
Coal generation in September is generally one of the low high months, as demand is falling from the summer peak. That September generation is now lower than the annual April lows from 2018 and earlier shows how much generation has dropped.
Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 241.9TWh in 12 months. Coal generation during that period was 9.6TWh less than nuclear. While we could expect an uptick in capacity factors compared to last year's mild winter, coal capacity reduced over 11GW in the past 12 months, and over 6GW year to date, with another 3GW of closures planned for 2020Q4. With nuclear reductions being much less, and none planned for 2020Q4, it's possible that rolling nuclear generation will remain above that of coal through the next 12 months.
Coal generation capacity factors fell to 43.6%, down from 51.6% in September 2020, and much lower than 55.3% in 2018.
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month | 223,040.6 | -650.0 | 222,390.6 | -0.29% |
| YTD | 228,657.4 | -6,266.8 | 222,390.6 | -2.74% |
| Rolling | 233,847.0 | -11,456.4 | 222,390.6 | -4.90% |
| Plan +12mo | -5,435.4 | 0.0 | -4,785.4 | -2.15% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month Capacity | 235,012.7 | -12,622.1 | 222,390.6 | -5.37% |
| Month Factor | 51.6% | -8.0% | 43.6% | -15.50% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 49.9% | -9.5% | 40.4% | -19.02% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|
| 2019 | 85,918 | 750,049 | 1,030,450 | 23.70% | 23.58% | 24.68% |
| 2020 | 68,396 | 573,646 | 788,553 | 20.24% | 18.63% | 19.42% |
| Difference | -17,522 | -176,403 | -241,897 | -3.46% | -4.96% | -5.26% |
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month | 97,120.9 | -601.4 | 96,519.5 | -0.62% |
| YTD | 98,119.0 | -1,599.5 | 96,519.5 | -1.63% |
| Rolling | 98,119.0 | -1,599.5 | 96,519.5 | -1.63% |
| Plan +12mo | -1,619.3 | -2,300.0 | -3,317.9 | -3.44% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month Capacity | 98,106.1 | -1,586.6 | 96,519.5 | -1.62% |
| Month Factor | 92.8% | 1.8% | 94.6% | 1.94% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 92.6% | 0.5% | 93.1% | 0.49% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|
| 2019 | 65,892 | 610,178 | 805,186 | 18.18% | 19.18% | 19.28% |
| 2020 | 65,727 | 598,925 | 798,157 | 19.45% | 19.45% | 19.65% |
| Difference | -165 | -11,253 | -7,029 | 1.27% | 0.26% | 0.37% |
