Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[dgpcolorado]

You do know that there's a problem getting recycling up and running due to the lack of batteries to recycle, right? LOL

V2G use would likely be <10kW rate, low enough to be negligible to the battery which is drained at 20+kW on the highway with spikes to 50-75kW. With battery that is good for 300k-1M miles, using it for V2G might mean the battery actually is worn in 10-15 years.

People are buying Tesla PowerWalls to get $2/kWh in CA. The per kWh price of EV is much lower than home battery so you can get in on VPP-like program with a much smaller investment that is also 'upgradable' every time you get a new EV.

Well, Powerwalls have always been very expensive for what you get but that hardly means that abusing a car battery is a good idea. I think that the V2G idea seems better to those who are so wealthy that they can afford a new car every few years and don't care what happens to the old one, since it is under warranty. For those of us who typically keep cars for at least a decade or two, avoiding replacing a battery is a big deal.

I think it remains to be seen if EV batteries will last 300k to 1 million miles, as you suggest. Almost none of the original Tesla car batteries make it much past 200k miles, if that far, from user reports I've seen.

I'm down more than twenty percent (to 163 RM) in 138k miles over eight years and am concerned about getting stranded if one of my modules craps out on a road trip, because that often drastically limits charging and range, according to those who've had it happen. Even if it happened at home I'd have to have a flatbed tow to get to the service center 300 miles away, and wait for weeks while a rebuilt battery pack was ordered. I've toyed with getting a battery upgrade at 057 in North Carolina but how long would a $15k rebuilt pack with used cells be expected to last? It isn't as if even Tesla rebuilds packs for old cars with new cells, so far as I know.

Perhaps you are right about the newer packs and they really will go 300k miles. For now, I remain skeptical. When you get over 300k miles on an original battery, please let us all know!

 

[eevee-fan]

Well, Powerwalls have always been very expensive for what you get but that hardly means that abusing a car battery is a good idea. I think that the V2G idea seems better to those who are so wealthy that they can afford a new car every few years and don't care what happens to the old one, since it is under warranty. For those of us who typically keep cars for at least a decade or two, avoiding replacing a battery is a big deal.

I think it remains to be seen if EV batteries will last 300k to 1 million miles, as you suggest. Almost none of the original Tesla car batteries make it much past 200k miles, if that far, from user reports I've seen.

I'm down more than twenty percent (to 163 RM) in 138k miles over eight years and am concerned about getting stranded if one of my modules craps out on a road trip, because that often drastically limits charging and range, according to those who've had it happen. Even if it happened at home I'd have to have a flatbed tow to get to the service center 300 miles away, and wait for weeks while a rebuilt battery pack was ordered. I've toyed with getting a battery upgrade at 057 in North Carolina but how long would a $15k rebuilt pack with used cells be expected to last? It isn't as if even Tesla rebuilds packs for old cars with new cells, so far as I know.

Perhaps you are right about the newer packs and they really will go 300k miles. For now, I remain skeptical. When you get over 300k miles on an original battery, please let us all know!

tesla new 1 million mile battery at DuckDuckGo

DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.

duckduckgo.com

Well, it's good to be skeptical if you're one to hold on to a car for a decade or longer. But when it comes time to replace, you might want to hold on to the old EV and leave it in the garage providing V2G services... you'd get more money doing that rather than trading in.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Well, Powerwalls have always been very expensive for what you get but that hardly means that abusing a car battery is a good idea. I think that the V2G idea seems better to those who are so wealthy that they can afford a new car every few years and don't care what happens to the old one, since it is under warranty. For those of us who typically keep cars for at least a decade or two, avoiding replacing a battery is a big deal.

I think it remains to be seen if EV batteries will last 300k to 1 million miles, as you suggest. Almost none of the original Tesla car batteries make it much past 200k miles, if that far, from user reports I've seen.

I'm down more than twenty percent (to 163 RM) in 138k miles over eight years and am concerned about getting stranded if one of my modules craps out on a road trip, because that often drastically limits charging and range, according to those who've had it happen. Even if it happened at home I'd have to have a flatbed tow to get to the service center 300 miles away, and wait for weeks while a rebuilt battery pack was ordered. I've toyed with getting a battery upgrade at 057 in North Carolina but how long would a $15k rebuilt pack with used cells be expected to last? It isn't as if even Tesla rebuilds packs for old cars with new cells, so far as I know.

Perhaps you are right about the newer packs and they really will go 300k miles. For now, I remain skeptical. When you get over 300k miles on an original battery, please let us all know!

You have an S60, which suffers a harder life than those who have larger batteries. I have a Nissan Leaf and am an active participant in the Leaf forums. Smaller batteries simply get charged/discharged more widely and more often, which is the worst thing you can do to them. Larger batteries get cycled less often and more shallow, so they simply will last longer. Leaf owners are seeing this play out with the new 40kwh batteries as well (lasting much more than 50% longer despite still NOT having any thermal management).

The fact that your 60kwh model S went 138k miles with only 20% degradation is a testament to Tesla's battery management. But more importantly, you can't extrapolate your experience with the small pack to those who have the larger packs. There are model S/X that have gone well over 200k miles without needing a battery replacement, but they were all with the larger battery packs. Same with the model 3 (Tesla Model 3 Review After 200,000 Miles).

Lastly, wk057 does good work. If you had to, then go with him for that upgrade, but I think downgrading the S60 to a model 3 LR would be financially better.

 

[dgpcolorado]

You have an S60, which suffers a harder life than those who have larger batteries. I have a Nissan Leaf and am an active participant in the Leaf forums. Smaller batteries simply get charged/discharged more widely and more often, which is the worst thing you can do to them. Larger batteries get cycled less often and more shallow, so they simply will last longer. Leaf owners are seeing this play out with the new 40kwh batteries as well (lasting much more than 50% longer despite still NOT having any thermal management).

The fact that your 60kwh model S went 138k miles with only 20% degradation is a testament to Tesla's battery management. But more importantly, you can't extrapolate your experience with the small pack to those who have the larger packs. There are model S/X that have gone well over 200k miles without needing a battery replacement, but they were all with the larger battery packs. Same with the model 3 (Tesla Model 3 Review After 200,000 Miles).

Lastly, wk057 does good work. If you had to, then go with him for that upgrade, but I think downgrading the S60 to a model 3 LR would be financially better.

Not that I could afford one, but a Model 3 is impractical because of the trunk, versus the liftback in the S. I can sleep in the S on long road trips and have done so dozens of times, usually while plugged into an RV pedestal at a campground.

The Model Y is more practical but they are ridiculously expensive. I'm also reluctant to give up FUSC, since I get a lot of use out of it. (I've put more than 131k miles on my used S, the majority on long road trips, at a fuel cost of zero.)

Yes, my LEAF battery degraded a lot more quickly than the S. But Tesla batteries that make it to 200k miles seem uncommon; have any made it to 300k? Nevermind the million miles hype!

Years ago we hoped that we could put a new battery in an old car when the time came, since that's more environmentally responsible than recycling a car when the battery wears out. But Tesla changes things so quickly that new batteries (and other parts, such as MCUs) don't fit in older cars. Planned obsolescence? Seems wasteful to me.

I kept my pre-LEAF car for twenty-five years and 330k miles; it was quite cost-effective. I had planned to keep it longer until I hit a deer!

 

[SR22pilot]

Not that I could afford one, but a Model 3 is impractical because of the trunk, versus the liftback in the S. I can sleep in the S on long road trips and have done so dozens of times, usually while plugged into an RV pedestal at a campground.

The Model Y is more practical but they are ridiculously expensive. I'm also reluctant to give up FUSC, since I get a lot of use out of it. (I've put more than 131k miles on my used S, the majority on long road trips, at a fuel cost of zero.)

Yes, my LEAF battery degraded a lot more quickly than the S. But Tesla batteries that make it to 200k miles seem uncommon; have any made it to 300k? Nevermind the million miles hype!

Years ago we hoped that we could put a new battery in an old car when the time came, since that's more environmentally responsible than recycling a car when the battery wears out. But Tesla changes things so quickly that new batteries (and other parts, such as MCUs) don't fit in older cars. Planned obsolescence? Seems wasteful to me.

I kept my pre-LEAF car for twenty-five years and 330k miles; it was quite cost-effective. I had planned to keep it longer until I hit a deer!

Yes batteries have made it to 200K and even 300K if I remember correctly. You do have to be careful because in some cases the battery was replaced along the way. However, I believe there are cases where it wasn’t.

 

[outdoors]

Well, Powerwalls have always been very expensive for what you get but that hardly means that abusing a car battery is a good idea. I think that the V2G idea seems better to those who are so wealthy that they can afford a new car every few years and don't care what happens to the old one, since it is under warranty.

Yes, Powerwalls are very expensive. Too expensive for my budget. Went a different route as in a fully off grid setting.

V2H/G (but negative on the G I have no G) Without VTH I will have to buy propane. Local DCFC and L2 will allow me to bypass that and add a big battery bank(V) for tougher weeks in Jan/Feb. My local electric provider is 100% Hydro. I will pay for when I can't run solar.

Not sure this about wealth, but flexibility. I also plan on holding cars for decades. My mileage each year prohibits anything other. 52k YTD. The year is young.

 

[RubberToe]

Long article in the LA Times today about the Transwest Express DC transmission line from Wyoming to California. It may not be behind a paywall. The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre wind farms will feed it, and the green hydrogen project in Utah to burn natural gas and hydrogen mix is also discussed. All mentioned projects are described in Wikipedia. Total capacity of 3GW.

This power line could save California — and forever change the American West

The billionaire who owns the Coachella music festival is preparing to build the nation’s largest wind farm — and a 730-mile power line. Not everyone is on board.

www.latimes.com

RT

 

[RubberToe]

You do know that there's a problem getting recycling up and running due to the lack of batteries to recycle, right? LOL

V2G use would likely be <10kW rate, low enough to be negligible to the battery which is drained at 20+kW on the highway with spikes to 50-75kW. With battery that is good for 300k-1M miles, using it for V2G might mean the battery actually is worn in 10-15 years.

People are buying Tesla PowerWalls to get $2/kWh in CA. The per kWh price of EV is much lower than home battery so you can get in on VPP-like program with a much smaller investment that is also 'upgradable' every time you get a new EV.

Lots of Powerwall users jumping on the $2kWh incentive:

Tesla's Virtual Power Plant Tracker — Lastbulb

See how many homes are participating in Tesla Solar's virtual power plant beta program in California and how many MW of electricity they can access on their customers' Powerwalls.

www.lastbulb.com

 

[mspohr]

Long article in the LA Times today about the Transwest Express DC transmission line from Wyoming to California. It may not be behind a paywall. The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre wind farms will feed it, and the green hydrogen project in Utah to burn natural gas and hydrogen mix is also discussed. All mentioned projects are described in Wikipedia. Total capacity of 3GW.

This power line could save California — and forever change the American West

The billionaire who owns the Coachella music festival is preparing to build the nation’s largest wind farm — and a 730-mile power line. Not everyone is on board.

www.latimes.com

RT

Just drove through SE Idaho. It is swarming with windmills and we passed multiple trucks carrying new windmill blades so they are adding more.
(The trucks with windmill blades and the blades themselves are incredible. They are huge.)

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Not that I could afford one, but a Model 3 is impractical because of the trunk, versus the liftback in the S. I can sleep in the S on long road trips and have done so dozens of times, usually while plugged into an RV pedestal at a campground.

The Model Y is more practical but they are ridiculously expensive. I'm also reluctant to give up FUSC, since I get a lot of use out of it. (I've put more than 131k miles on my used S, the majority on long road trips, at a fuel cost of zero.)

Yes, my LEAF battery degraded a lot more quickly than the S. But Tesla batteries that make it to 200k miles seem uncommon; have any made it to 300k? Nevermind the million miles hype!

Years ago we hoped that we could put a new battery in an old car when the time came, since that's more environmentally responsible than recycling a car when the battery wears out. But Tesla changes things so quickly that new batteries (and other parts, such as MCUs) don't fit in older cars. Planned obsolescence? Seems wasteful to me.

I kept my pre-LEAF car for twenty-five years and 330k miles; it was quite cost-effective. I had planned to keep it longer until I hit a deer!

300k miles, yes. A German driver (Hansjorg Gemmingen) who had one of the early pack failures. His loaner pack had gone over 300k miles before being replaced with a third pack that had gone over 300k miles before he replaced the car with a lucid.

Another Canadian driver, lovepianoblack (Twitter handle), has gone over 310k miles on his original model 3 battery.

Will YOU see 300k miles in your S60? I doubt it, since your battery gets cycled too much for the same miles. And your battery pre-dates Musk's announced goal of a million-mile car. The 2014's we're when Tesla was simply trying to get the message across that EV's can be driven across state lines.

If you're firm on keeping the S60, then take wk057 on his offer, as you'll get more range AND cycle the battery less, thus more likely to see 300k miles from a single pack.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Here Are the Challenges Ahead for California’s Ban on Gas Cars

...Officials at the California Air Resources Board, the agency overseeing the new rule, have said they reserve the right to amend the targets if the market doesn’t evolve in the way they hope. In a report in April, agency staffers wrote that “consumer challenges” could prove a significant hurdle, noting that many people are wary of the high costs of electric vehicles, the availability of charging and unfamiliarity with the technology...

Mr. Segal said legal challenges to that waiver were sure to follow. If successful, those challenges could bolster the arguments of attorneys general from Republican states who have filed a separate, broader lawsuit opposing California’s decades-long ability to set its own pollution rules, he said.

He said opponents of California’s new rule could have a strong case to challenge an E.P.A. waiver. That’s because obtaining a waiver is rooted in the argument that California faces unique environmental consequences from smog and other traditional pollutants not found elsewhere. Yet state leaders have explicitly said the car mandate is about tackling the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change — yet climate change isn’t unique to California....

 

[dgpcolorado]

...52k YTD. The year is young.

Yikes! I thought I was high at 21k miles a year!

 

[eevee-fan]

Solar canopy over canals, not just CA!

 

[Dave EV]

Solar canopy over canals, not just CA!

I love seeing solar installed in places where the real estate would otherwise be unused, adding value to the install.

Rooftop, parking lot on now water canal installs are the best!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Solar canopy over canals, not just CA!

Asia goes for floating panels because of pressure on land use.
In Western countries people stop solar panels because they don't like how they look.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I realize Hawai'i is a speck on the global scene but:

Hawaii Closes Its Last Coal-Fired Power Plant

 

[eevee-fan]

I realize Hawai'i is a speck on the global scene but:

Hawaii Closes Its Last Coal-Fired Power Plant

Actually, it used to be thought that a small grid would be harder to balance and get off fossil fuel, this is great news.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Actually, it used to be thought that a small grid would be harder to balance and get off fossil fuel, this is great news.

It was hard in the sense of expensive to go 100%. The cost of going to a high percentage has fallen substantially for anywhere with good renewable resources.

Closing the coal plant means more oil use for now, which is a negative, as coal was still a significant part of generation, but shutting it allows them to stop handling coal.

 

[Dave EV]

It was hard in the sense of expensive to go 100%. The cost of going to a high percentage has fallen substantially for anywhere with good renewable resources.

Closing the coal plant means more oil use for now, which is a negative, as coal was still a significant part of generation, but shutting it allows them to stop handling coal.

Yeah, petroleum power plants are about the same as coal in terms of emissions per kWh, it appears, so the main win is eliminating the dependence on coal.

Still, coal did not appear to be a large portion of Hawaii's electricity generation - about 14% in May according to the EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

I would imagine that petroleum plants are easier to spin up/down in response to available renewables, but it's clear that more batteries and solar will be the way forward in Hawaii. I know they have long been dealing with high amounts of solar on the grid during daylight hours which has slowed down the deployment of solar there.

 

[eevee-fan]