TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Prediction Competition for 2016

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Jan 3, 2016.

?

Combined total of global deliveries of Model S and Model X in 2016?

This poll will close on Jan 1, 2017 at 2:48 PM.
  1. Less than 60,000

    1.7%
  2. 60,000 - 62,499

    1.7%
  3. 62,500 - 64,999

    0.8%
  4. 65,000 - 67,499

    2.5%
  5. 67,500 - 69,999

    3.3%
  6. 70,000 - 72,499

    5.8%
  7. 72,500 - 74,999

    8.3%
  8. 75,000 - 77,499

    15.8%
  9. 77,500 - 79,999

    17.5%
  10. 80,000 - 82,499

    15.0%
  11. 82,500 - 84,999

    9.2%
  12. 85,000 - 87,499

    6.7%
  13. 87,500 - 89,999

    5.0%
  14. 90,000 - 92,499

    2.5%
  15. 92,500 or more

    4.2%
  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    For 2016 competition I would like to suggest that we get to predict a separate global total number of Tesla Model S deliveries, AND a separate global total number of Tesla Model X deliveries.

    How to do that?

    How about two separate competitions?

    And each competition will have it's own thread, so that nothing will get mixed up.

    Two separate results, and (probably) two separate winners.

    After all, there are two different vehicles now, whereas in 2015 we already knew that there would be very few Tesla Model X deliveries (not more than 1,000).
     
  2. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
    I'm not sure why there are so many people want to convince themselves and novices that demand is not an issue for Tesla. Demand certainly is growing but that's not Tesla investors can be satisfied. We need demand growth exceeding expectation, guidance without sacrificing margin. Otherwise, we should not debate if 50580 met on reduced low end of guidance instead of how much Tesla can beat 55K even w/o model X. Here is my earlier reply to papafox wrt. demand constraint reasonings http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/40244-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements-2015?p=1239789&viewfull=1#post1239789. I'll stop replying here. People always like to choose what they want to believe and I have no obiligation to convince them.

    For 2016, the 17K model S quarterly demand like Q4 is not sustainable. But model X backlog will mitigate the demand issues. So for the Q1/Q2/Q3, TSLA SP is mainly driven by model X production rate.

     
  3. Lump

    Lump Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2013
    Messages:
    2,099
    Location:
    So. Cal.
    Favorite thread on TMC :wink:, hopefully more people will participate in 2016 so we can track their predictions.

    Hopefully in the future Tesla will meet some of their goals, from 2014 second quarter shareholder letter.

     
  4. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    In February we will know how many deliveries of S/X vehicles they will guide for 2016. What are your first rough thoughts about that?
     
  5. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,219
    Location:
    Denali Highway, Alaska
    #5 AudubonB, Jan 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2016
    It's close to the time to put to bed the 2015 thread; here is the one for 2016. The above five posts I have extracted from the 2015 thread. Good luck and happy prognosticating to all.

    My strong inclination is not to create separate threads for Models S, X and 3 but I certainly cannot stop those from showing up. This thread will serve for Tesla Motors's entire output.
     
  6. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    407
    Location:
    Lehigh Valley PA
    My prediction:

    -84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
    -55,330 Model S
    -28,743 Model X
     
  7. Larken

    Larken Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Sweden
    I agree with this, at least that was the rules for the two previous years of the competition that I set back then. Of course that can change, but I think we should keep it as it makes it more fun to have one winner "take it all".

    In any case, the deadline for casting/modifying the vote is one week after the Q1 conference call, so no need to hurry. I'll remind everyone to vote in good time.

    My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    I didn't know I had started this thread.

    I would like it if there would be a poll on top of this thread as well, just like the poll on top of the Q4 2015 prediction thread.
     
  9. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,219
    Location:
    Denali Highway, Alaska
    I started it earlier today, then pulled the relevant posts from 2015 into it. Since they preceded by age my post, they showed up first. I think anyone can place a poll on it; if not, start a poll-thread on its own and I'll merge the poll into this one.
     
  10. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2013
    Messages:
    462
    Location:
    Denmark
    I will go "all-in" with a very conservative estimate:

    93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

    51,200 Model S
    42,227 Model X

    Let's see what will come of this :)
     
  11. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2013
    Messages:
    270
    Location:
    Detroit, MI
    49,211 Model S
    22,010 Model X
    71,221 Total
     
  12. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,347
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    My belief is that if a company were ever setup to grow production fantastically quickly, it's Tesla. New product in Model X with high identified demand, and high theoretical demand, that is ready to go now (there will undoubtedly be another quarter of ramping logistics, but we're past the "when will it first be available" milestone), alongside of an existing high demand product. I believe that in 2017 there will be more X than S deliveries, with crossover happening sometime in 2016 (said another way - I expect that demand for the luxury SUV segment is higher than demand for the sedan segment).

    But that's separate.

    In my mind, whether somebody buys an S or X is irrelevant to Tesla, or it will be in a quarter or three when X production is ramped up.


    So I don't know the mix in 2016. My belief is that it could be huge, and I'll be disappointed at anything under 75,000 (50% growth off of the ~50k 2015 delivery number).

    My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number). Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.
     
  13. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    OK

    I have just added a poll on top of this thread.

    Please post your precise prediction for combined total of global deliveries of Model S and Model X in 2016.

    Your prediction can be adjusted anytime before Tesla announces deliveries (January 2nd 2017?).

    Feel free to specify annual Model S deliveries and annual Model X deliveries, but winner will be determined based on combined total of global deliveries of Model S and Model X in 2016.

    In the poll, please indicate the range that your prediction falls within.

    This poll will close on 2017-01-01 at 11:48 PM Be advised that this is a public poll: other users can see the choice(s) you selected.

    Thank you for your participation in this thread.

    Cheers
     
  14. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2014
    Messages:
    377
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Haha, I like your wording, Benz :)

    Shouldn't the poll close a week after Q1 earnings?
     
  15. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    2,518
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    My prediction:

    Model S: 42,000

    Model X: 42,500

    Model 3: 1 Prototype

    Total: 84,501

    Since people have been waiting for the Model X so long, it would make sense that Tesla would push a little harder in that direction. So I predict more X's than S's. Also, once the reviews start flooding in and they are spectacular then sales will see a spike just like we saw back in the early days of the S.
     
  16. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2015
    Messages:
    1,039
    Location:
    Midwest
    55,700 s
    25,100 x
     
  17. dc_h

    dc_h Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2015
    Messages:
    456
    Location:
    Naperville, IL
    82501 total
    46000 S
    36501 X
     
  18. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,219
    Location:
    Denali Highway, Alaska
    First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777
     
  19. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2012
    Messages:
    1,708
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    75,870
    44,000 Model S
    31,870 Model X
     
  20. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,538
    Location:
    Kongsberg, Norway
    50,920 Model S
    26,201 Model X
    77,121 total
     

Share This Page