So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER, but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.
Here is my math (very high level) using workingdays.us to calculate business days for California. Assuming they produced 15k cars in Q4 (their goal was to clear the channel and sell 2k cars produced earlier), they should have exited 2015 at 234 cars/business day.
- Knowing the X ramp will only reach the top by the end of Q1, I took the same rate for January, totaling 4446.
- For February I took an average jump from 200ish to 400ish X per week, which brings us to 40 cars more per day, so 274 times 19 days = 5206.
- For March I added another 40 Xes per day and we have 22 business days, so that's 6908.
- For the rest of the year I went with their 1700 car average per week, which should allow for the Summer shutdown and unexpected events. 340 cars per day times 191 work days left = 64940.
- Grand total: 4446 + 5206 + 6908 + 64940 = 81500 cars produced.
Just to state the obvious, that would be a 63% growth YoY. I still believe the X will eventually have a higher demand than the S, so production capabilities permitting, this may get higher in the end.
PS: Even if they had 1800 cars per week (360 per day) coming off the lines for the entire year from day 1, with 251 work days, that's 90k cars. This does not take holidays and stand downs into account, nor does it calculate with the Model X ramp in Q1. So unless sometime during the year they decide to ramp overall production higher than previously announced, 90k is kind of a theoretical production limit.
