Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Looks like an overblown story as I have a friend in MA with solar and powerwall and the Utility did not need to pull power from his battery. Interestingly, the all time NEISO peak demand occurred in 2006 and efficiencies since then have kept the peak below that level. What’s more NEISO is anticipating that conversion to heat pumps for home heating in the winter is going to be the biggest driver/ issue of new load, more so than EV’s.

Just a warning of tight supply. If you look at available v demand there wasn't much of a gap. That brings on some of the little-used capacity like oil spe

What about people who can't charge at home? They may charge at work (likely during the daytime) or wherever (e.g. public). At my work, we have better attendance Tuesdays thru Thursday and we have several dozen J1772 handles (each on a 40 amp circuit) + 10 Tesla wall connectors (5 100 amp feeds with a load sharing config of 2 WCs per 100 amp circuit). All of those are in use eventually at some point on each of those days.

But, our power consumption is really low compared to many Tesla Supercharger sites.

That's true now, except most of the vehicles are ICEVs so they are placing virtually no load on the grid ever. There will be a tiny load for short period of time when they pump gasoline.

Here in CA, when Flex Alert: energy conservation tips, save energy on high demand days in California are called on hot days (this is before we reach stage 1 or above emergency), assuming you're even aware of any of this, What is a Flex Alert? says what you should do. Someone DC FCing at even 50 kW blows the the conservation efforts of several houses with central AC or MANY houses without (raises hand).

You actually need to opt in to receive flex alerts and maybe your power company might notify you, if you're opted into something. Or, you might hear about it on TV or radio... most other folks I suspect are blissfully unaware

BTW, you can look at pages 1 and 3 of https://www.caiso.com/documents/grid-emergencies-history-report-1998-present.pdf for CA flex alert/alert and emergency history. Ignore years 2000 and 2001 when I was out of the state. Those were due to the Enron scandal.

People who can't charge at home and who charge at work would already be charging during the day habitually and would be part of the regular demand. Their demand would be highest in winter.

There's a forecast of 6GW more of PV over the next 10 years, which marries up well with the shape of daytime charging.

But again, if there's significant sales of BEVs, I'd expect it skewed towards people who can charge at home and also to push the property market economics towards adding charging ar MDUs. (Especially with a shift to NACS, which could make deployment easier).

I mentioned the offset of home v road for the potential case of high travel on hot days. You shouldn't have both peak residential demand and peak vehicle demand.

 

[SalisburySam]

There's a forecast of 6GW more of PV over the next 10 years…

While nice, assuming these PV farms do not destroy forests (they likely will), 6GW pales in comparison to the 4tWh consumed in the US in 2022 escalating at about 1% per year. Just the annual escalation is 40gWh. If we’re serious, we have to be much, much more aggressive without destroying needed and essential earthly resources.

Source.

 

[winfield100]

the statistical review of world energy is just released
they took over from BP Statistical review
there is a pdf and and excel spreadsheet

Home

The Energy Institute is, as of 2023, the home of the Statistical Review of World Energy, published previously for more than 70 years by bp. The Statistical Review analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year. It has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the...

www.energyinst.org

 

[TheLastDon]

I think what will eventually happen is the vast majority of people simply won't own cars. They will just summon a self driving Tesla to pick them up as needed for a small fee. You already see this with some people with Uber/Lyft. I know people who have completely given up their cars to live like that.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

While nice, assuming these PV farms do not destroy forests (they likely will), 6GW pales in comparison to the 4tWh consumed in the US in 2022 escalating at about 1% per year. Just the annual escalation is 40gWh. If we’re serious, we have to be much, much more aggressive without destroying needed and essential earthly resources.

Source.

That's 6GW in New England. Just pointing out that PV is very useful for offsetting daytime EV demand.

 

[FastEddieB]

That's true now, except most of the vehicles are ICEVs so they are placing virtually no load on the grid ever. There will be a tiny load for short period of time when they pump gasoline.

Plus the overhead of keeping a huge number of gas stations operational.

Even fairly remote Interstate exits often have multiple gas stations servicing them. In a mostly electric future, the need for these will be drastically reduced. They may try to press on as “convenience stores”, but I think it’s likely that we’ll gradually see more and more shuttered gas stations. While some may convert to charging stations, with most charging at home most of the time, there won’t be a need for nearly as many gas stations, which itself should reduce the load on the grid to some extent.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Plus the overhead of keeping a huge number of gas stations operational.

Even fairly remote Interstate exits often have multiple gas stations servicing them. In a mostly electric future, the need for these will be drastically reduced. They may try to press on as “convenience stores”, but I think it’s likely that we’ll gradually see more and more shuttered gas stations. While some may convert to charging stations, with most charging at home most of the time, there won’t be a need for nearly as many gas stations, which itself should reduce the load on the grid to some extent.

EV charging is _much_ slower.
You'd almost certainly need more DCFCs than gas pumps.
Even being generous, I think you'd need at least 95% of miles home or destination charging to have time-at-DCFC to be less than time-at-pump.
But you'd want the DCFC to be more concentrated on highways.

 

[henderrj]

EV charging is _much_ slower.
You'd almost certainly need more DCFCs than gas pumps.
Even being generous, I think you'd need at least 95% of miles home or destination charging to have time-at-DCFC to be less than time-at-pump.
But you'd want the DCFC to be more concentrated on highways.

Have you only owned old evs? My 2014 was indeed quite slow. As it happens, I kind of liked it. I like the longer breaks. But they did sometimes get tedious. Our 2018 is fast enough that I often am not finished with what I'm doing when it's done charging. And the current crop of EVS is faster yet. But even then, you'd have to travel an awful lot to get close to needing as many charge stops as people currently do gas station stops.

As to total time spent at a gas station or charging per year. I did a seminar recently and asked all the gas users how often they go to a station for fuel. They agreed it was a minimum of once a week. Calculating the drive time and everything else they pretty much all agreed it probably was 10 minutes per stop, maybe more. 10 minutes * 52. Pushing 10 hours of putting gas in the vehicle per year. As opposed to 10 seconds per evening to plug in plus, maybe 10 charge stops all year for most people. Do the math!

Except for apartment dwellers and others who do not have overnight or work-based charging, total time spent charging is less than total time spent getting gas into a vehicle. Cut the number of vehicles by even 20%, and the number of gas stations will drop at least that percentage. Probably more. It's simple economics. You're way off here. Sorry.

 

[henderrj]

Have you only owned old evs? My 2014 was indeed quite slow. As it happens, I kind of liked it. I like the longer breaks. But they did sometimes get tedious. Our 2018 is fast enough that I often am not finished with what I'm doing when it's done charging. And the current crop of EVS is faster yet. But even then, you'd have to travel an awful lot to get close to needing as many charge stops as people currently do gas station stops.

As to total time spent at a gas station or charging per year. I did a seminar recently and asked all the gas users how often they go to a station for fuel. They agreed it was a minimum of once a week. Calculating the drive time and everything else they pretty much all agreed it probably was 10 minutes per stop, maybe more. 10 minutes * 52. Pushing 10 hours of putting gas in the vehicle per year. As opposed to 10 seconds per evening to plug in plus, maybe 10 charge stops all year for most people. Do the math!

Except for apartment dwellers and others who do not have overnight or work-based charging, total time spent charging is less than total time spent getting gas into a vehicle. Cut the number of vehicles by even 20%, and the number of gas stations will drop at least that percentage. Probably more. It's simple economics. You're way off here. Sorry.

I'm curious, #h2ofun, with what do you disagree? I'd like to know the specific issue you have with that post. If that's all right.

 

[David_Cary]

My Model Y is a year old around 7/1.
I am at 86% home; 14% other. 0% supercharging.
The other is mostly our second home but may involve some random other charging - ie never anything that involved waiting. More like a free charger that I happened to hop on.

My wife's 3 was 12% and 9% supercharging in 2022 and 2023. I had a S70 at that time so we took her car for all supercharging trips so I think it is fair to call that roughly 5% of our family charging. So we are roughly 5% for 2022/2023 with 2024 being 0% to date for both cars.

We never ever wait for level 2 somewhere. Yes - we have charged overnight on a trip at level 2 but it didn't involve waiting with the car.

So in my real world experience, 5% of charging is fast charging and while waiting. And I am pretty good at this so it is averages well above 100kw. I suspect that 5% is about 2-3 hours total annually and that is being really generous and counting drive time to charger. I can think of a few meals eaten during this time. So that 5% takes 2.5 hours compared to roughly 8 hours for getting gas per year in this "average" driver comparison. So I really think you could be at 10% supercharging and still be quicker than ICE - in this "per year" comparison.

Average person - 2 oil changes per year at 45 min a pop. Another 1.5 hours. And think of the poor sap who does "every 3 months". Yes - you can get an oil change faster but my memory - including a small amount of drive time, waiting in line to check in and pay - 45 min is fair. Again, poor sap that goes to a dealer (not usually as converniently located) and usually slower, it could be a lot more.

I am on a trip. Rental car. Just drove almost 30 min round trip for gas. But - that is partly lack of knowledge of area. And we had spotty cell phone coverage so it was a one-off. I am not quite ready to rent an EV on vacation in rural areas that I don't know. But I am getting close since this would have been a non issue with an EV.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Have you only owned old evs? My 2014 was indeed quite slow. As it happens, I kind of liked it. I like the longer breaks. But they did sometimes get tedious. Our 2018 is fast enough that I often am not finished with what I'm doing when it's done charging. And the current crop of EVS is faster yet. But even then, you'd have to travel an awful lot to get close to needing as many charge stops as people currently do gas station stops.

As to total time spent at a gas station or charging per year. I did a seminar recently and asked all the gas users how often they go to a station for fuel. They agreed it was a minimum of once a week. Calculating the drive time and everything else they pretty much all agreed it probably was 10 minutes per stop, maybe more. 10 minutes * 52. Pushing 10 hours of putting gas in the vehicle per year. As opposed to 10 seconds per evening to plug in plus, maybe 10 charge stops all year for most people. Do the math!

Except for apartment dwellers and others who do not have overnight or work-based charging, total time spent charging is less than total time spent getting gas into a vehicle. Cut the number of vehicles by even 20%, and the number of gas stations will drop at least that percentage. Probably more. It's simple economics. You're way off here. Sorry.

I was making an observation about the _number of DCFCs_.

Just do the math on <time at DCFC> = <miles at DCFC> / <miles per minute at DCFC> compared to <time at gas pumps> = <miles at gas pumps> / <miles per minute at gas pump>. Put in reasonable estimates and you'll see that unless you have an extremely high percentage of miles from other charging you'll end up with more DCFCs.

So, to serve everybody you'll have fewer visits with the same number or more DCFCs. (Total refueling time is irrelevant to the refueling station operators).
How will those be distributed? Where will they be located?

Ironically, it's become more common for chargers to be located at gas stations because they are conveniently located next to highways.

But as far as the impact of a reduction in gasoline vehicles goes, how direct is the correlation to number of gas stations?
Gas station profit depends largely on the convenience stores, and I see plenty of people who just get gas (I'm one of them), and plenty of people who just visit the convenience store. The impact on profit depends significantly on how much they lose because of people who had combined stops who are no longer stopping at the convenience store. Will they still visit because the gas station is a convenient stop on their route? Or no longer visit because it was a bit inconvenient? Or now go to a different gas station more that they avoided because of expensive gas?

If they allow companies to install chargers (which is increasing), how does that change things? People are going to take the same highway trips, but are forced to stop more and for longer. Will they have a higher convenience store spend?

I don't think the impact is obvious.

 

[h2ofun]

I'm curious, #h2ofun, with what do you disagree? I'd like to know the specific issue you have with that post. If that's all right.

I smiled with your charging. One can always play with numbers.

Here is my test. We both show up to my house, you with your EV, and me with my minivan. We have 8 people and luggage to drive
450 miles to disneyland. Lets see who gets there first with everything.

If one has money to buy and wants a toy, I love my Tesla. But I would never ever recommend an EV as an only car, just like it makes no sense in Calif to get solar panels anymore, let alone buy powerwalls.

Take away the writeoff's, and let the market determine the winner. This forcing folks to a technology never works.

 

[FastEddieB]

This forcing folks to a technology never works.

LED lightbulbs?

 

[chinney]

I smiled with your charging. One can always play with numbers.

Here is my test. We both show up to my house, you with your EV, and me with my minivan. We have 8 people and luggage to drive
450 miles to disneyland. Lets see who gets there first with everything.

If one has money to buy and wants a toy, I love my Tesla. But I would never ever recommend an EV as an only car, just like it makes no sense in Calif to get solar panels anymore, let alone buy powerwalls.

Take away the writeoff's, and let the market determine the winner. This forcing folks to a technology never works.

Our Model 3 is our only car. We use it for local trips, business trips and vacations. No issues. It is not a "toy".

 

[henderrj]

I was making an observation about the _number of DCFCs_.

Just do the math on <time at DCFC> = <miles at DCFC> / <miles per minute at DCFC> compared to <time at gas pumps> = <miles at gas pumps> / <miles per minute at gas pump>. Put in reasonable estimates and you'll see that unless you have an extremely high percentage of miles from other charging you'll end up with more DCFCs.

So, to serve everybody you'll have fewer visits with the same number or more DCFCs. (Total refueling time is irrelevant to the refueling station operators).
How will those be distributed? Where will they be located?

Ironically, it's become more common for chargers to be located at gas stations because they are conveniently located next to highways.

But as far as the impact of a reduction in gasoline vehicles goes, how direct is the correlation to number of gas stations?
Gas station profit depends largely on the convenience stores, and I see plenty of people who just get gas (I'm one of them), and plenty of people who just visit the convenience store. The impact on profit depends significantly on how much they lose because of people who had combined stops who are no longer stopping at the convenience store. Will they still visit because the gas station is a convenient stop on their route? Or no longer visit because it was a bit inconvenient? Or now go to a different gas station more that they avoided because of expensive gas?

If they allow companies to install chargers (which is increasing), how does that change things? People are going to take the same highway trips, but are forced to stop more and for longer. Will they have a higher convenience store spend?

I don't think the impact is obvious.

Good point on the convenience store thing. They still need to be there for that purpose. And I think you're right, they'll put chargers there. They'll be happy for the extra time anybody spends! More time to shop.

As to the effect for the individual user, I think you're missing my point. I don't use DC fast chargers except on trips. Pretty much no one does, unless they can't charge it home or work. That is to say, I make a 3,000-mi trip from where we live up to the northwest. Stop 10-12 times on the way for charging. Four or five of those are at night at the hotel, so I don't wait at all, just as at home. The point here is that for most people with garages it's much less time intensive annually to charge cars than it is to put gas in them. And, I did forget about the oil change things. Thanks #David_Cary

 

[henderrj]

I smiled with your charging. One can always play with numbers.

Here is my test. We both show up to my house, you with your EV, and me with my minivan. We have 8 people and luggage to drive
450 miles to disneyland. Lets see who gets there first with everything.

If one has money to buy and wants a toy, I love my Tesla. But I would never ever recommend an EV as an only car, just like it makes no sense in Calif to get solar panels anymore, let alone buy powerwalls.

Take away the writeoff's, and let the market determine the winner. This forcing folks to a technology never works.

I definitely agree with your last sentence!

However, we've gone down to one car, our model x. I, for one, cannot understand anyone wanting to own an ice vehicle as their only vehicle! You can always rent one of those gas guzzlers.

As to the time for making a trip, that is a good point. There is a little bit more time spent then. But, are you not on vacation! Do you really want to rush around all the time? And, since it saves you many hours over an entire year of your day-to-day life, isn't that still superior? I guess that's my point.

We have no problems at all on trips. And, getting there fastest is not always the best thing! We rather love the more relaxed pace nowadays. (though this car charges much faster than my old s did. In fact I sometimes have to hurry to get back to it before I start getting idle fees.)

I'd have to agree with you in one of the things though as well. All cars are really toys. Do we honestly need one? I just think it's worth having the one that I want! And besides, I can't stand the smelly garage. The hot exhaust and engine, the stench of gas, the oil. Not interested at all. I like my nice clean garage with my electric vehicles. Well, vehicle nowadays.

 

[nwdiver]

This forcing folks to a technology never works.

Seat belts?

 

[winfield100]

I smiled with your charging. One can always play with numbers.

Here is my test. We both show up to my house, you with your EV, and me with my minivan. We have 8 people and luggage to drive
450 miles to disneyland. Lets see who gets there first with everything.

If one has money to buy and wants a toy, I love my Tesla. But I would never ever recommend an EV as an only car, just like it makes no sense in Calif to get solar panels anymore, let alone buy powerwalls.

Take away the writeoff's, and let the market determine the winner. This forcing folks to a technology never works.

We on the other hand a married couple, retired 2016, have had a single vehicle for last 20 years.
completely sufficient

Take our MYLR from SW Floriduh to Key West, Floriduh, (800+ miles) Asheville, North Carolina, Buffalo, New York, (3,500+ miles) Aberdeen, Maryland, (3,500+ miles) Washington DC. (2,500+ miles) North Carolina (2,000+ miles)

manufacture 140% of electricity I use at home. MYLR is not a toy, it's best car I have ever owned, but, whatever.

Market =>IS<= deciding, MPGe is way over 100 vs fossil fooled vehicles\cleaner way less cost
Market is saying ROI way better on EV's, especially Tesla's' and SuperCharger network

(plus the old gas stations usually have leaking underground tanks that need expensive remediations)

lets see who does 2,500 - 4,000 mile trips far more relaxed
(some peoples lives are a series of crises that never occur)

cheers

 

[winfield100]

I definitely agree with your last sentence!

However, we've gone down to one car, our model x. I, for one, cannot understand anyone wanting to own an ice vehicle as their only vehicle! You can always rent one of those gas guzzlers.

As to the time for making a trip, that is a good point. There is a little bit more time spent then. But, are you not on vacation! Do you really want to rush around all the time? And, since it saves you many hours over an entire year of your day-to-day life, isn't that still superior? I guess that's my point.

We have no problems at all on trips. And, getting there fastest is not always the best thing! We rather love the more relaxed pace nowadays. (though this car charges much faster than my old s did. In fact I sometimes have to hurry to get back to it before I start getting idle fees.)

I'd have to agree with you in one of the things though as well. All cars are really toys. Do we honestly need one? I just think it's worth having the one that I want! And besides, I can't stand the smelly garage. The hot exhaust and engine, the stench of gas, the oil. Not interested at all. I like my nice clean garage with my electric vehicles. Well, vehicle nowadays.

love the 250kw / >1,000mile/hr charging (which does taper so on to next one)

 

[winfield100]

Seat belts?

saved our lives when we were rear ended at stop lights, twice