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That is an excellent point.
Tesla Motors has stated that the Model 3 is there to outperform a car like the Audi A4, which in its TDI version has an excellent range (and reliability) - even for the pre-cheating versions.
As an experiment I once drove a 1.9l Audi A4 TDI the 1200 km from Munich to Copenhagen (via E-45/20) without stopping for fuel (or indeed without stopping at all). At a barely tolerable 115 km/h I spent about 64 liter diesel (5.3 l / 100 km), using lights, stereo and A/C.
Assuming 20kWh / 100 km for a Tesla, it would take a 240 kWh battery to cover the same distance on a single charge.
If the pace of advancements in battery technology can be kept at an annual 6%, a 240 kWh battery upgrade should be available for the Model S/X in 15 years (assuming the 100 kWh battery comes out this year).
In 20 years it would be 320 kWh.
I would totally pay for both. For the ICEs that remain in 20 years that scenario would indeed be thoroughly embarrassing.
Ok, so yesterday morning it passed the 250k mark. Elon will update again on Wed evening. Want to make a guess where things stand Wednesday by Elon's next update? Just for chuckles. I am guessing 309k
Bimbels
GoldMember
He was supposed to update us last night but he forgot. I guess he's busy.
Yep but at this point, I'm just curious to see what a week holds. 250k by 10am or so in the morning Saturday. CLprenz was amazingly correct and had a better guess of it than Elon and team.
Make a guess as to where it will be Wednesday, just for fun. I am guessing 309k.
For folks curious about what this means for the world. The inflection point may be nigh. When electric cars reach comparable price points to ICEs. This analysis was very very good. Just looked at the big picture and says, well it looks like the 2020s will be the decade when electric cars take start having a huge impact on oil demand and use.
Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis
Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis
Bimbels
GoldMember
Ok, you are cheating like my kids when they were 6, getting in two guesses! But I guess you deserve two. If they go to 276 by Saturday evening then I'm probably going to be a bit low.
Yep, slowing down now. There just has to be a point where they'll flat line but it might be another few days. Still, that is 276k people writing checks that will likely take them off market for 18 months if nothing else. Cadillac, Lexus, BMW, Merc, Audi, Acura all have to be a bit unhappy with where things sit.
Bimbels
GoldMember
in the small lux market there are about 420k car sales a year, half of that is bmw 3 and merc c series stuff. Much of that is leased. Another 8 models account for the rest of it, also much of it leased.
300k car sales unit loss would gut that segment. So, the question would be are the Tesla 3 buyers small lux buyers or Prius drivers looking to upgrade? Regardless, this is mostly going to hurt some snotty self righteous germans that make GM blush.
300k car sales unit loss would gut that segment. So, the question would be are the Tesla 3 buyers small lux buyers or Prius drivers looking to upgrade? Regardless, this is mostly going to hurt some snotty self righteous germans that make GM blush.
I think the reservations will level off. If you don't have one reserved by now, you certainly won't get the tax credit, and you won't see a car for at least 2 years. The Tesla fan boys and girls, (like me), have more than likely gotten their res in.
I believe it will pinch the other manufacturers, but it won't erase them.
I believe it will pinch the other manufacturers, but it won't erase them.
The question is, how many of these are U.S. Sales compared to world wide sales.
Tesla isn't making a dent into any of the other manufacturers entry luxury car sales, not yet. Some of these people just got into a lease and will be out of it by the time the 3 hits the scene. Some will go into a lease waiting on the 3 and some will just drop the 3 once they find out it'll be 2025 by the time they have their 3.
Tesla isn't making a dent into any of the other manufacturers entry luxury car sales, not yet. Some of these people just got into a lease and will be out of it by the time the 3 hits the scene. Some will go into a lease waiting on the 3 and some will just drop the 3 once they find out it'll be 2025 by the time they have their 3.
Out of curiosity...what do you drive now? I'm a dad with a Honda Odyssey that will be about 200k when an 3 is available for me.
Well the S has hit the higher end car market, substantially, people tout the fact that it outsold all other high end models. Fact is that meant that people with 100k to drop on a car are not stepping into a Mercedes E or BMW 7 or Audi 8, or a Lexus LS. Leases are much lower than purchases. They took roughly 20% of the market segment and for a segment with year on year growth of almost 10% that's huge inroads and cuts deeply into profits. If they do the same in the SUV space with X... and do the same with low end lux then in the US they'll have gutted all the growth from the market. China being in a slump doesn't help of course. Neither does the decline in the mideast income base. All together it will be challenging times for Toyota, BMW, Merc and the liars.
I'm a mom with a 2005 Toyota Highlander. Plan on saving it for the daughter, who should get her driver's license next year (summer). Don't know what I will do between her getting her license and me getting my Tesla. We may have to share the car for a while.
As a note, I love the S and X, but they are too pricey for me. I have been considering a Volt, but, I think 2 drive trains sound complicated, and, there is no AWD option, which I need in Colorado.
Thank you so much, very curious. You know maybe we should conduct a poll and survey folks to find out what they're replacing. That's really key. So, one odyssey and one highlander- both a little below the M3 pricing depending on the options.
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