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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
- Thread starter Crowded Mind
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Maybe they are preparing a storage yard for cars at the end of this quarter so they don't go over the 200K US deliveries before July 1? I predicted in another thread that they would start Model 3 deliveries to Canada early to shunt production to another market as a tactic of delay and at the end of Q2 they would stock pile cars until July 1 and sell like mad starting day 1 of Q3 as they cross the 200K threshold.
The Gigafactory grounds are the largest piece of unused acreage Tesla owns and can police stored cars from vandalism.
I'm not sure it's going to be the GF, but I do predict Tesla will be stockpiling cars in one or more locations around the US near the end of this quarter to push out the 200K sales mark to July 1.
I'm babbling and on topic for a change...
The Gigafactory grounds are the largest piece of unused acreage Tesla owns and can police stored cars from vandalism.
I'm not sure it's going to be the GF, but I do predict Tesla will be stockpiling cars in one or more locations around the US near the end of this quarter to push out the 200K sales mark to July 1.
I'm babbling and on topic for a change...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That might incur a lot of unnecessary expense loading, transporting, unloading at the gf, then doing it all again for their actual intended destination.
I would not like to see stockpiling, because of the detrimental effect on cash flow and the likely negative spin on "news" articles. I don't mind as much if they stockpile on ships to other places, so long as there's no VW-like photo of a desert full of new Teslas. Even this will still hurt cashflow a bit, because of the longer lead time, but I trust them to have run the numbers to decide whether it is worth it or not.
K_Dizzle
Member
Is this where we make predictions? I predict that when the model Y is inevitably delayed we will be talking about Tesla bankruptcy once again.
okay, I’ll toss in here a prediction,
Qtrly production update and/or Elon tweet in the next day or so congratulating entire Tesla team for producing 2,500 (or more) TM3s in the past week and reaffirming, & explicitly announcing greater confidence in, 5K target for end of Q3.
full disclosure, having fun here, this call is definitely affected by the fact that this is exactly what I’d like Elon to tweet.
Qtrly production update and/or Elon tweet in the next day or so congratulating entire Tesla team for producing 2,500 (or more) TM3s in the past week and reaffirming, & explicitly announcing greater confidence in, 5K target for end of Q3.
full disclosure, having fun here, this call is definitely affected by the fact that this is exactly what I’d like Elon to tweet.
Same day I posted that. In hindsight, the mention of vehicle production seems like an embellishment that person may have added, but I could see semi assembly at GF1, assuming painted body parts would be painted at Fremont then perhaps shipped to GF1 on the return trip for the trucks that deliver completed battery packs to Fremont.
Semi production likely won't take that much space actually - they're relatively simple machines and production volume will be significantly lower than cars, especially for the first year or two. I wouldn't be surprised if the initial semi line is mostly manual assembly.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Here's a bold one ... Tesla will announce plans for another factory in the Bay Area 
Tesla is reportedly interested in a huge parcel of land in Oakland
Tesla is reportedly interested in a huge parcel of land in Oakland
It would be a hit for Q2, but on the backside they would have a fire sale the rest of the year as people scramble to get their car before the incentive starts to decline. It won't help Model 3 sales as demand is still exceeding supply, but I suspect Model S sales are a bit down and will likely go down more when Model 3 production hits its stride.
There are a lot of places that haven't stopped talking about Tesla bankruptcy. On some other threads there is talk about how the stock price going down is related to Model 3 production issues and Tesla will go bankrupt any day now. People ignore the fact the entire stock market is down this year.
Interesting about Tesla looking at land in Oakland, I would think Bay Area real estate would be too expensive.
EM will announce GF 3, 4 and 5 right after positive cash flow. GF 3 and 4 will be both in China with a distance of one Semi charge to each others. GF 3 is half way build and starts operation Q1'19.
GF 3&4 are designed to produce 4 mio cars per year together within 3 years + crazy amount of TE. Huge numbers!
The way Tesla will find the capital for this will surprise everyone. China wants this and this is the key.
GF5 is US based and desiged for 2 mio cars. Ramp will be much slower than GF3&4.
GF 3&4 are designed to produce 4 mio cars per year together within 3 years + crazy amount of TE. Huge numbers!
The way Tesla will find the capital for this will surprise everyone. China wants this and this is the key.
GF5 is US based and desiged for 2 mio cars. Ramp will be much slower than GF3&4.
With what Elon is alluding in terms of largest shorts in history, I have a hypothesis that there will be a head fake.
Most of the focus has been on the SEXY Semi products, not a lot of discussion on Energy.
With the success of Australia, there are so many potential giga-projects for Tesla. Elon alluded to a recent 1 GW reward in the earnings call.
Further, Saudi Arabai has announced a $200B solar project end of March and the prince himself has stated he drove a Tesla and says it's the future. With his visit to Silicon Valley he must have visited Musk. There is a good probability of Tesla being involved.
Thoughts?
Most of the focus has been on the SEXY Semi products, not a lot of discussion on Energy.
With the success of Australia, there are so many potential giga-projects for Tesla. Elon alluded to a recent 1 GW reward in the earnings call.
Further, Saudi Arabai has announced a $200B solar project end of March and the prince himself has stated he drove a Tesla and says it's the future. With his visit to Silicon Valley he must have visited Musk. There is a good probability of Tesla being involved.
Thoughts?
The 1 GW reference was intriguing and has not been discussed much on this forum or in the media. There are a number of possibilities. Saudi (Softbank) certainly could be tied to the reference as well as China. Although a tie-in with a California utility is the most likely scenario, IMO.
I would like to think Elon is actively pursuing a number of opportunities in both China and the energy front (especially Saudi).
Another quirk of the call that I have not seen discussed was the call out of Robin Ren as Elon seemed to highlight the fact that Robin was born in China. I won't read much into it other than things in China are starting to move again, but it was interesting.
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Kudo to @FredLambert for getting this out.
Tesla teases a potential giant new record-breaking 1 GWh energy storage project to be announced soon
The enormous 200 GW Saudi solar project is definitely crying out for a very large storage installation -- it seems as good a bet as any for the GWh-level storage project Elon referred to on the call.
As for the "short burn," I personally think that most likely refers to Model 3 profitability/cash flow but there could be other factors at play as well.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
What power-to-energy ratio would you use to estimate the the size of storage needed, given what we know about the 200 GW project?
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