Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[StapleGun]

Tesla Semi as an autonomous RV w/ free, automatic, and rapid supercharging.

Once I can afford an autonomous electric RV, I will retire and live out the rest of my days getting chauffeured across America in a first class cabin for pennies.

As for predictions tonight, I think no models other than the Semi will be shown. I do not think prices will be revealed, and I think Elon will mostly focus on the commercial partners and planned routes for the first couple of fleets.

Not specific enough? Ok, I think they will unveil a solution for fully charging the semi at a loading dock in less than the time it takes to unload the average truck.

 

[AudubonB]

I predict it's not going to start on time.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I predict it's not going to start on time.

The best predictions are always in hindsight.

 

[StapleGun]

As for predictions tonight, I think no models other than the Semi will be shown. I do not think prices will be revealed, and I think Elon will mostly focus on the commercial partners and planned routes for the first couple of fleets.

Not specific enough? Ok, I think they will unveil a solution for fully charging the semi at a loading dock in less than the time it takes to unload the average truck.

Completely wrong on all counts. And I love it.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I predict that there will be a new EV cannonball run record in 2020!
I also predict at least one of the run attempts will be 46hrs or less!

too obvious to count? Well I thought to put it down first!!

 

[vgrinshpun]

I have predicted that Semi will have 4 drive units and emphasized that it will allow anti-jack knifing measures, which, as far as safety is concerned is really "next level" - back in the beginning of September:

Could also show up on Semi. Semi's will likely use 4 drive units from M3, so if half axles are independent, torque vectoring could be easily incorporated. I think that it is a good chance that it will be, and is one of the reasons for Elon's reference to the "seriously next level". Just to make clear, I have no information on use of torque vectoring in Tesla Semi, it is my speculation at this point.

The practical use for torque vectoring is improvement of stability, foul weather traction, including anti jack-knifing measures. If true, this would be absolutely fantastic advantage over the ICE Semi's, "seriously next level" indeed.

 

[JRP3]

I question the ability of the tractor motors to prevent jackknifing, which happens when the back end of the trailer overtakes the tractor.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I question the ability of the tractor motors to prevent jackknifing, which happens when the back end of the trailer overtakes the tractor.

What exactly do you see problematic?

 

[JRP3]

Jackknifing occurs when the tractor slows down at a greater rate than the trailer and the trailer wheels lose traction and overtake the tractor. I'm not clear on how independent control of the tractor wheels can prevent this.

 

[vgrinshpun]

By keeping tractor in aligned with trailer using torque vectoring. Here is full quote from Tesla Semi Pres Kit:

Jackknifing is prevented due to the Semi's onboard sensors that detect instability and react with positive or negative torque to each wheel while independently actuating all brakes.

 

[JRP3]

By keeping tractor in aligned with trailer using torque vectoring.

Which would seem to mean if the trailer starts getting sideways then the tractor gets sideways as well. So technically avoiding jackknifing but maybe not a desirable result.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I do not see it that way. I think you are missing that it is dynamic process. Adjusting torque dynamically with latency of milliseconds is much more effective in preventing jack knifing, essentially avoiding instability and maintaining control, than any other method. I think you are referring to extreme case when traction on the tractor wheels is not enough to slow down trailer, but traction control of tractor (not ABS based) is engaged continuously. So corrective action will be taken well in advance.

 

[Quick2Judge]

From July 22...

200 KWH battery by end of 2022 ( this will be the ultimate ICE killer) at barely more weight and size than current batteries.

...Add some Tesla time for the roadster roll out and we are almost there.

 

[JRP3]

A former truck driver has similar thoughts to mine about jackknifing:

"Jackknifing is impossible."

This is a lie, unless the Tesla Semi and Tesla trailer can counteract physics and human error. My Freightliner weighed about 18,000 pounds, the reefer trailer added about another 16,000 pounds. That left enough for about a 46,000-pound load. When stuffed to the gills, I had 62,000 pounds ready to push me around or come around. If, either through physics or human error, the drive wheels or the trailer break loose too far, the Tesla Semi won't stop the jackknife.

This ex-trucker has some questions about the Tesla Semi

 

[vgrinshpun]

A former truck driver has similar thoughts to mine about jackknifing:



This ex-trucker has some questions about the Tesla Semi

What exactly are you trying to say, that there will be corner cases when it does not work (I never claimed the opposite), or that it will not work under most of circumstances?

 

[JRP3]

Jackknifing is rare, so I'd say any jackknife event is a corner case, but Elon claimed it would be impossible to jackknife the truck. I question that statement.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Jackknifing is rare, so I'd say any jackknife event is a corner case, but Elon claimed it would be impossible to jackknife the truck. I question that statement.

Now I understand your objection, but it is apparently to what Elon said, not to what I posted, which was:

The practical use for torque vectoring is improvement of stability, foul weather traction, including anti jack-knifing measures. If true, this would be absolutely fantastic advantage over the ICE Semi's, "seriously next level" indeed.

 

[wdolson]

I would be careful if I was Elon claiming it was impossible to jack knife the truck. I would also be careful about the nuclear glass claim. It would be safer to say they have been unable to jack knife the truck in testing and the glass is strong enough that it should never break in regular use. The glass can't be better than the glass on armored trucks or limousines and those won't stop a large caliber round like a 0.50 caliber rifle bullet.

The truck and new Roadster are both ultra-impressive without overselling anything.

 

[JRP3]

Now I understand your objection, but it is apparently to what Elon said, not to what I posted, which was:

True, torque vectoring should help to some degree, but I think Elon oversold it, as he sometimes does.

 

[electracity]

I came here for the predictions. I leave disappointed.