Price drop on car - Resetting the price on FSD - Anyone else feeling this is highly disingenuous on Tesla's part?

[ewoodrick]

At the risk of beating a dead horse, no sense paying $15k for FSD when HW3 can't be upgraded and FSDb arguably performs so poorly.

What does buying FSD and HW4 have to do with each other? Elon has indicated that HW3 WILL DO FSD when released.
If you want to assume that FSD release is years, away, that's then years of driving with FSD beta (which is pretty awesome from my years of experience with it) that you'll get.

 

[ewoodrick]

It could happen, hence the plan is to place the order before Elon starts speaking on investor day . Worst case, we end up having to cancel again and lose another deposit. But, considering the steep drop in prices on inventory Model X vehicles (I think it is about 10-12K for our configuration), I think Tesla is beginning to clean out HW3 inventory to get ready for HW4 vehicles. All of the inventory vehicles are listed as 'Demo' vehicles, but have <50 miles on odometer.

Since the Cybertruck was indicated as the first vehicle with HW4, it's pretty safe that you won't be seeing it on any S3XY refreshes anytime soon.

 

[2101Guy]

What does buying FSD and HW4 have to do with each other? Elon has indicated that HW3 WILL DO FSD when released.
If you want to assume that FSD release is years, away, that's then years of driving with FSD beta (which is pretty awesome from my years of experience with it) that you'll get.

Define what "do fsd" means in your world?

 

[2101Guy]

It could happen, hence the plan is to place the order before Elon starts speaking on investor day . Worst case, we end up having to cancel again and lose another deposit. But, considering the steep drop in prices on inventory Model X vehicles (I think it is about 10-12K for our configuration), I think Tesla is beginning to clean out HW3 inventory to get ready for HW4 vehicles. All of the inventory vehicles are listed as 'Demo' vehicles, but have <50 miles on odometer.

Question: Understood on your desire to have FSD, but from a financial aspect, why not subscribe instead of "buying" it?

 

[GSP]

@EV forever - If I was in your shoes, I also would have cancelled and reordered in order to get HW4. Seems like a smart move, and I really hope it works out for you.

Good Luck,

GSP

 

[kabin]

What does buying FSD and HW4 have to do with each other? Elon has indicated that HW3 WILL DO FSD when released.
If you want to assume that FSD release is years, away, that's then years of driving with FSD beta (which is pretty awesome from my years of experience with it) that you'll get.

Our definitions of awesome are so different there's no sense discussing the rest.

 

[ewoodrick]

Define what "do fsd" means in your world?

Pay the full upfront money, tell the car to navigate somewhere, double click the right stalk and provide torque to the steering wheel while paying attention. The car then drives from point A to point B over surface streets or Interstates.

Full FSD as opposed to FSD beta does not require torque to the steering wheel or pay attention to the road.

There is a promise from Elon that the Model 3 will be upgraded to support FSD. HW3 is still expected to fully support it.

 

[ewoodrick]

Our definitions of awesome are so different there's no sense discussing the rest.

Interesting that you don't believe that being able to drive 40 miles from point A to point B unassisted (but not unwatched) by a driver isn't awesome.
I did that trip last weekend.

 

[aataskin]

Hi All,

Thanks for all your replies and great discussion, it really helped us think through these issues.

For now, we have cancelled our order and plan to wait till March 1st to place a new order for the same configuration with FSD (yes, we will be paying the 15K for it). We will only take delivery if the car has HW4 included with it. @mylapore I agree with you completely, we would gladly pay the 3K extra for the new hardware. Since the car is already damn expensive, another 3K is not that big a deal.

All indications are that HW4 release is imminent and it will be done first in Model X. For those of you interested in which indications I am referring to here, please look through Twitter feeds from @Teslascope and @greentheonly. It is mostly just rumors and speculation, but after following the company for 10 years, we know that this is how it typically starts.


Not sure if I am feeding a troll below, but the cars are a technological marvel as far as we are concerned. We have seen huge improvements since our Model 3 in early 2018 till the most recent Model Y. Further, even the 2018 Model 3 is a better car now than it was when we first bought it - the regular software update just keep improving the car's functionality. Lack of USS in the most recent Model Y wasn't a surprise, and we do miss the beeps while parking - but that is no big deal. The tone of messages quoted below and the fact that poster only joined TMC couple of weeks back suggests to me either a troll or carebear - I usually do not respond to these, but decided to make an exception this time. I want to make it perfectly clear, WE ABSOLUTELY LOVE OUR TESLAs and no other car comes even close to their technological superiority.

I believe it's thanks to guys like you that Tesla can get away with replacing essential technology like radar or USS with empty promises. After following the company for 10 years do you not realize that your HW4 car will come with most of the functionality disabled until a later day when they may figure out how to use the new cameras? And that such a day will never come?

 

[ewoodrick]

USS is going to get fixed, just chill. USS isn't required, cars have been made for 100 years without it.

RADAR is not essential technology. My 40 mile unassisted drive the other day was an example of it.

And I absolutely know that most of the HW4 technology won't be used to begin with, just like my HW3 wasn't used for a while. And it's still not maxed out.

The beginnings of HW4 started just as HW3 started shipping. That's the way technology works. It's just a normal upgrade path.

But the day will come.

 

[ewoodrick]

I believe it's thanks to guys like you that Tesla can get away with replacing essential technology like radar or USS with empty promises. After following the company for 10 years do you not realize that your HW4 car will come with most of the functionality disabled until a later day when they may figure out how to use the new cameras? And that such a day will never come?

How did I travel with FSD unassisted for 40 miles on the current software stack if RADAR is required?

 

[DanCar]

Thread summary: A fool and his money soon part.

 

[eli_]

Supply chain issues aside, Tesla largely gets to choose the time where it rolls out new hardware. They could just as easily turn the dials and only ship USS-less, or radar-less, or HW4 cars when the software is complete at the time the car is in the factory. And users won't see any disruption in available features, they can go from their 2018 to their 2023 Tesla and everything keeps working uninterrupted. It could cost them more, and produce more waste, it would make them less agile, but they could CHOOSE to make changes this way and improve the experience for their customers. So they are doing some calculus where they add in the loss of customer's goodwill compared to the cost of continuing to ship additional parts for awhile longer until the firmware teams are ready. And you can see which thing wins out every time.

 

[aataskin]

USS is going to get fixed, just chill. USS isn't required, cars have been made for 100 years without it.

RADAR is not essential technology. My 40 mile unassisted drive the other day was an example of it.

And I absolutely know that most of the HW4 technology won't be used to begin with, just like my HW3 wasn't used for a while. And it's still not maxed out.

The beginnings of HW4 started just as HW3 started shipping. That's the way technology works. It's just a normal upgrade path.

But the day will come.

No, it's not normal to remove functionality before you even have a working prototype. And yes, the day will come. Six years and counting. All I am saying is as long as Tesla customers will continue to buy into empty promises they will be sold just that, empty promises. If everybody agreed to hold off and wait for something that actually works it would be already here. Or it wouldn't because it's impossible (Andrej Karpathy's exit hints at just that, the guy of that talent wouldn't quit if he saw the light) but in that case nobody would be charged for it. Musk is lucky to have you guys.

 

[aataskin]

How did I travel with FSD unassisted for 40 miles on the current software stack if RADAR is required?

Endangering everybody on the road including yourself?

 

[ewoodrick]

Endangering everybody on the road including yourself?

Nope, no birds were shot, no accidents occurred, no nasty looks from passerbys, no horns were blown. And my passenger didn't really realize that I had it on.

I'm not saying that it is this way all the time, but this was an example that it can be this way some of the time. You are not guaranteed to die if you turn it on.

Most of the time people freak out if the car does something that they wouldn't do. Same type of thing occurs when driving with other people. Same thing happens when teaching kids how to drive. I've found that in most cases, all you have to do is just give it a chance and it will quickly recover itself.

There's one section of road near me, where the main road goes straight but both mine and my wife's car invariably turns on the turn signal and tries to turn left. Sure, I can panic and override it. But I also know that if I let it do it, it just wiggles the car a little bit and then turns off the signal. There was bridge construction next to it and I think that the road geometry doesn't exactly line up and the car tries to compensate. But there are many situations where if you just let the car drive and not override it, it will end up doing the right thing.
My reaction times are a lot faster than my wife's. I'll often let the car do it's thing for longer than she does. She then learns that she can indeed trust it. She still keeps her hand on the wheel and the hands turn as the wheel does. I stopped that a long time ago and mine is usually only holding the bottom right of the wheel and I let the wheel slip through my hands when it turns.

FSD takes getting used to. I've had my Model 3 for 5 years and lived through the incremental upgrades and have gotten used to how the car drives. I can generally predict where the car is going to have issues and either override or most commonly press the accelerator so that the ride is nice and comfortable.

I really wish that Tesla would have a staged "Learning how to exist with FSD" experience. As so many people are going from complete self-driving to the FSD beta experience, it can be overwhelming when you are expecting perfection. Even when FSD is released, there will still be LOTS of complaints just because the car doesn't drive the way they do.

It's been interesting listening to the complaints over the years, one of the best is that the car doesn't move to the left of the left lane when passing trucks, because that's the way "I do it". Just because you do it doesn't mean that it's the right way. The right way is to stay in the middle of the lane. If you are in the middle lane and drift to the left when passing a truck, you encroach on the car in the far left lane.

 

[aataskin]

Nope, no birds were shot, no accidents occurred, no nasty looks from passerbys, no horns were blown. And my passenger didn't really realize that I had it on.

I'm not saying that it is this way all the time, but this was an example that it can be this way some of the time. You are not guaranteed to die if you turn it on.

Most of the time people freak out if the car does something that they wouldn't do. Same type of thing occurs when driving with other people. Same thing happens when teaching kids how to drive. I've found that in most cases, all you have to do is just give it a chance and it will quickly recover itself.

There's one section of road near me, where the main road goes straight but both mine and my wife's car invariably turns on the turn signal and tries to turn left. Sure, I can panic and override it. But I also know that if I let it do it, it just wiggles the car a little bit and then turns off the signal. There was bridge construction next to it and I think that the road geometry doesn't exactly line up and the car tries to compensate. But there are many situations where if you just let the car drive and not override it, it will end up doing the right thing.
My reaction times are a lot faster than my wife's. I'll often let the car do it's thing for longer than she does. She then learns that she can indeed trust it. She still keeps her hand on the wheel and the hands turn as the wheel does. I stopped that a long time ago and mine is usually only holding the bottom right of the wheel and I let the wheel slip through my hands when it turns.

FSD takes getting used to. I've had my Model 3 for 5 years and lived through the incremental upgrades and have gotten used to how the car drives. I can generally predict where the car is going to have issues and either override or most commonly press the accelerator so that the ride is nice and comfortable.

I really wish that Tesla would have a staged "Learning how to exist with FSD" experience. As so many people are going from complete self-driving to the FSD beta experience, it can be overwhelming when you are expecting perfection. Even when FSD is released, there will still be LOTS of complaints just because the car doesn't drive the way they do.

It's been interesting listening to the complaints over the years, one of the best is that the car doesn't move to the left of the left lane when passing trucks, because that's the way "I do it". Just because you do it doesn't mean that it's the right way. The right way is to stay in the middle of the lane. If you are in the middle lane and drift to the left when passing a truck, you encroach on the car in the far left lane.

I wrote this in another thread, so will just copy from there. The two cars that I know of which have already _achieved_ L3 self-driving status both have Ultrasonic Sensors.
See this for Mercedes: Here’s What A Level 3 Self Driving 2024 Mercedes-Benz S-Class And EQS Can Really Do
and this for the Baidu self-driving taxi (this one has 12 USS): Baidu unveils new self-driving taxi in China
They both have radars as well, the one from Baidu has Lidar, and the one from Mercedes even has a microphone to listen for the emergency vehicles. None of them chose to discard all this useful technology in order to rely just on cameras simply because it kind of sounds like it might work. Tesla also started with radar and USS but didn't quite get as far as those other guys. And now we are basically betting that they will get there with just the cameras and hopefully an HD radar.

I would say, go back to USS, at least give me some help parking this thing in London, and I will place my order the same day. If you will later figure out how to get to L3 with just the cameras, it's great, it's an added bonus. My bet is this won't happen, but I'll be happy if it does. But don't strip the car of everything and tell me that everything is alright and will work. It didn't for the guys who seem to know what they are doing.

 

[2101Guy]

I wrote this in another thread, so will just copy from there. The two cars that I know of which have already _achieved_ L3 self-driving status both have Ultrasonic Sensors.
See this for Mercedes: Here’s What A Level 3 Self Driving 2024 Mercedes-Benz S-Class And EQS Can Really Do
and this for the Baidu self-driving taxi (this one has 12 USS): Baidu unveils new self-driving taxi in China
They both have radars as well, the one from Baidu has Lidar, and the one from Mercedes even has a microphone to listen for the emergency vehicles. None of them chose to discard all this useful technology in order to rely just on cameras simply because it kind of sounds like it might work. Tesla also started with radar and USS but didn't quite get as far as those other guys. And now we are basically betting that they will get there with just the cameras and hopefully an HD radar.

I would say, go back to USS, at least give me some help parking this thing in London, and I will place my order the same day. If you will later figure out how to get to L3 with just the cameras, it's great, it's an added bonus. My bet is this won't happen, but I'll be happy if it does. But don't strip the car of everything and tell me that everything is alright and will work. It didn't for the guys who seem to know what they are doing.

Yep. OR…OR….how about making the vision thingy work FIRST…and THEN take away USS sensors. Novel idea.

 

[ewoodrick]

The two cars that I know of which have already _achieved_ L3 self-driving status both have Ultrasonic Sensors.
See this for Mercedes: Here’s What A Level 3 Self Driving 2024 Mercedes-Benz S-Class And EQS Can Really Do
and this for the Baidu self-driving taxi (this one has 12 USS): Baidu unveils new self-driving taxi in China

Not familiar with the details of the Baidu, but pretty sure that the Mercedes is limited to under 40 mph. And I believe only on specific roads.

A number of companies have gone down the path of hyper-accurate maps and I personally think that it is a huge mistake. That really makes it hard to handle even the simplest of corner cases, such as construction zone reroute, which Tesla seems to be doing a fairly good job at these days.

And should I remind you that Level 3 has "human override is still required"

And yes, we do have a number of autonomous, limited area solutions in the US. But as I believe Elon has said, driving on known streets is easy, driving across the US is hard.

 

[AlexP]

Hello OP,

My understanding is that as long as you order the same model within a certain timeframe you don't lose your deposit. You may want to check with your Sales Advisor.