Price of Supercharging in the future?

[Vines]

What do others think of the price of supercharging over the next 5 or 10 years. How much do you think it will increase? This question was triggered by the $5k rebate question for P3D, and which was more valuable. Free supercharging for life, or $5k now?

Here in the bay area its currently $0.26/kWh to supercharge. I'll assume for a moment that the Teslas charging are getting 250 wh/mi, though some will get better or worse than that.

So the cost to drive a Tesla at 250 wh/mi on the supercharger network in California is approximately $0.065 per mile

A 30 mpg ICE, with fuel costs at $3.30/gallon would cost $0.11 per mile.

I personally think it will certainly increase, and probably stay something like 50% or so of the cost of a similar ICE energy dollar per mile.

1. As Tesla becomes more popular, there will be more need for superchargers, that is certainly a given, especially here in the bay area.

2. Neither DOT nor states are getting any taxes for the electrics running on the road. I predict there to be a surcharge to supercharging before 5 years, a tax of sorts on electric power used to charge cars. Not sure whether this tax would be covered under the "Free Supercharging" and paid for by Tesla, or picked up by the end user. I'll bet Tesla will fight hard for the the latter.

3. Currently the cost of a Tesla supercharged mile is a lot less than a ICE mile, granted it does take longer to refuel them. As the supercharger network expand, this will be an issue less and less. High end malls and shopping destinations will more and more cater to Tesla as the clientele is found to be well off, and interested in high quality goods and services.

I'm thinking that supercharging services will cost something like $0.35-0.45 /kWh in 5 years.

 

[brkaus]

I home charge, so supercharging is worth little to me.

Regarding your tax comment, I think they will need a different approach. They would want to cover all electric car use home or destination charged. And they would not broadly tax electric use. So either a flat registration fee or a mileage based registration fee would be more likely.

IMHO

 

[bomquito]

Keep in mind that supercharging stations are designed for "on the road" purposes only. Charging at home or where you park is so much more convenient to me.

 

[tecis]

I'm thinking that supercharging services will cost something like $0.35-0.45 /kWh in 5 years.

flat most, down likely. More solar power installed, batteries to offset grid imbalances becoming much cheaper.

I would not be surprised to see 0.20 USD/kwH in the bay area over 5 years.

 

[renambot]

Keep in mind that supercharging stations are designed for "on the road" purposes only. Charging at home or where you park is so much more convenient to me.

Not exclusively. With urban chargers, depending on your city, you can make it work. In Chicago, between Meijer, Marianos and Target (I think soon), you can do a lot of groceries and charge.
Even yesterday, I saw 2 Xs charging on Volta's free stations.

Luc

 

[insaneoctane]

• Even if you are getting 250 Wh/mile it's going to cost you ~300 Wh/mile from the wall to replenish that due to losses and efficiencies. May want to include extra 20% in your calculations.
• California has already fixed securing their portion of the missing fuel tax by adding a new yearly registration fee for EVs that approximates equivalent yearly fuel tax revenue
• Tesla has the ability to control electricity costs at superchargers via PV and batteries
• I do suspect that the Fed will want to recoup their missing fuel tax revenue

I don't think costs will go down unfortunately. I think planning for a 3% to 8% yearly increase in supercharger costs is appropriate.

 

[Atari2600]

Keep in mind that supercharging stations are designed for "on the road" purposes only. Charging at home or where you park is so much more convenient to me.

My work sometimes takes me to sites over 100 miles from my house. They used to have free chargers on site but after I ordered my 3 they now charge around $.70 per kwh so supercharging is cheaper for me. Wish I had bought a performance early on. When home yes home charging is great.

 

[tecis]

They used to have free chargers on site but after I ordered my 3 they now charge around $.70 per kwh so supercharging is cheaper for me.

great business move by them.

 

[mhan00]

My work sometimes takes me to sites over 100 miles from my house. They used to have free chargers on site but after I ordered my 3 they now charge around $.70 per kwh so supercharging is cheaper for me. Wish I had bought a performance early on. When home yes home charging is great.

$0.70 per kWh? That’s nuts pretty much anywhere in the continental US. How much of a premium is that over your local residential electricity prices?

 

[Vines]

I home charge, so supercharging is worth little to me.

Regarding your tax comment, I think they will need a different approach. They would want to cover all electric car use home or destination charged. And they would not broadly tax electric use. So either a flat registration fee or a mileage based registration fee would be more likely.

IMHO

Good point about the mileage based tax, though I could see some additional tax to "On the Road" type chargers, especially fast chargers.
Also good point that California had already increased registration fees for EVs, I had forgotten that.
Who knows what the future laws will hold. Regardless, the price of electricity will increase, and especially once electric cars are more mainstream.

As far as whether free charging makes business sense, it depends on what your business is. Green companies want to attract green employees and reward them for following the company vision. Free EV charging is a great way to get that for almost nothing. Commercial power is extremely cheap for the most part, something like $0.07 would not surprise me. Maybe they could even take a tax break or write off for this perk, who knows. I think for most tech or green companies, it allows them to attract better people by giving them more compensation that does not show up on the payroll. The perk costs them little, gets hidden in a monthly cost, and only effects a specific type of worker.

Any business wanting a low cost perk with high perceived value and a real world effect could make this choice to give out free charging and do very well for themselves. The money they might make from a $0.70/kWh is tiny in comparison to the rewards.

 

[Atari2600]

$0.70 per kWh? That’s nuts pretty much anywhere in the continental US. How much of a premium is that over your local residential electricity prices?

Home is $0.09 per kWh and that is any time. So it's really cheap.

 

[mhan00]

Home is $0.09 per kWh and that is any time. So it's really cheap.

Holy crap. Does your office just not want anyone to charge, period? I could understand a small margin, maybe even double or triple the cost per kWh to account for any demand charges they might face, depending on how many chargers they have. But SEVEN TIMES the residential rate is just nuts. Unless their demand charges are just nuts or they’re on some strange plan which has them crossing several tiers so they’re paying crazy rates per kWh, they’re just gouging their own employees.

 

[Vines]

I wonder if this is an issue with utility demand charges, or an issue with a penny wise and pound foolish management.

If its demand charges even a small power pack could work out to a huge reduction in the bill. PM me, we will be happy to quote one if near the bay area

 

[tecis]

I wonder if this is an issue with utility demand charges, or an issue with a penny wise and pound foolish management.

The second.

 

[Vines]

As an employee in high demand I'd have less reason to stay there in that case, maybe I'm not the kind of employee they want anyway, maybe a win-win. Profit is not something you expect you expect your employees to directly generate with their dollars. That's like charging for parking at the company lot.

 

[SSonnentag]

Taxing tires is the most "fair" way of getting road taxes out of EVs that I've been able to come up with.

Some quick math:

California gas tax is 40.7 cents/gallon. Using 30 mph, that comes to a tax rate of 1.36 cents/mile.
Alaska gas tax is 12.25 cents/gallon or 0.41 cents/mile.

So tack on an additional $31 for each tire to cover lost fuel tax revenue in Alaska, or $102/tire in California. All other states fall somewhere near the $65/tire mark.

(calculated using 30,000 miles of useful tire life.)


PS If you're in Pennsylvania, its time to oust somebody, 58.2 cents/gallon tax! Enjoy your $145/tire premium.

 

[Twiglett]

It’s a slippery slope for the many states that only allow utilities to sell electricity. Hence the per minute pricing for so many states.
That can’t tax it by power if they don’t allow some to sell by power.
Even harder is taxing home charging. Most governments haven’t got their heads around the fact that EVs even exist.

 

[iaflyer]

Michigan now charges an additional "EV Tax" at registration time:

"But while EV owners may think they are escaping the worst of these new fees, in order to compensate for lost gas tax revenue, the bill also introduces various fees for hybrid and electric vehicles. Owners of hybrid cars can expect to pay an additional annual registration fee between $30 and $100, and a $17 “gasoline tax.” People with fully electric cars are getting hit even harder: owners of non-hybrid electric vehicles will be charged between $100 and $200, in addition to an even higher “gasoline tax” of $35. That’s potentially an additional $235, on top of the now $120 state-wide registration fee, for owning an all-electric car." Michigan EV owners: register now or get hit with an extra $100-$200 registration fee and $35 “gas tax”

 

[MXWing]

Accounting profit is 75,000 miles of supercharging.

Economic profit for me is 125,000 miles of supercharging.

Supercharging cost would really like to go up like 4X to make it “worth it” for keeping the option over 5000 upfront you can do whatever you wish with.

 

[SSonnentag]

Michigan now charges an additional "EV Tax" at registration time:

"But while EV owners may think they are escaping the worst of these new fees, in order to compensate for lost gas tax revenue, the bill also introduces various fees for hybrid and electric vehicles. Owners of hybrid cars can expect to pay an additional annual registration fee between $30 and $100, and a $17 “gasoline tax.” People with fully electric cars are getting hit even harder: owners of non-hybrid electric vehicles will be charged between $100 and $200, in addition to an even higher “gasoline tax” of $35. That’s potentially an additional $235, on top of the now $120 state-wide registration fee, for owning an all-electric car." Michigan EV owners: register now or get hit with an extra $100-$200 registration fee and $35 “gas tax”

Yeah, this sort of thing is most likely what will happen everywhere. It brings in more money per vehicle than even the gas tax would, and its super simple for the states to implement. I don't like these arbitrary fees because they don't account for how much the vehicles make use of the roads. At least the gas tax does that. Someone driving 5,000 miles/year should not pay the same road taxes as someone who drives 50,000 miles/year.