Price of Supercharging in the future?

[SSonnentag]

That makes no electrical sense. One of the big advantages of EV's is they can charge at night when the demand for power is lower. By having them charge during the day in peak times there will be need for more and more power plants to supply this peak demand. If the entire growing EV market did this, soon there would be a major need for many new power plants to be constructed.

Actually all those EV's should be a source of power for the grid in peak times. Give a big discount for night charging and use a percentage of this power when needed by the rid and the EV's are parked at work. That's a win-win case and an positive environmental impact.

How do you want to power these new plants? Coal, Nuclear power, Natural gas? Currently over 1/2 of California's power is from carbon fuel burning. reducing that demand could allow some of these to close.

Unless there is a lot of solar power generation on site, then it would make sense to use the power where and when it is being generated.

 

[iaflyer]

Free work EV chargers will not continue. I have yet to see an employer install a free gas pump in their parking lot. Once EV adoption increases the economics do not make sense.

Now with incentives and low numbers of EV's it works. Once there are 10% of the cars that are EV's what do you do? All a few EV charging stations will do is create conflict.

No gas pumps, but I have worked for places that provided free subway passes. Or free parking at work. EV charging is just another version of that in my opinion. In my city, the city owned pay parking structures provide free EV charging.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Another thought I've had is that road deterioration is directly proportional to the weight of a vehicle traveling on the roadway. Its probably more like the weight of the vehicle divided by the contact patch area, but that's getting a bit into the weeds. So a tiny eco car (Mitsubishi Mirage at ~2,000 lb) should pay less road tax than a bulky SUV (Lexus LX at ~6,000 lb).

I've read it's fourth power of the axle weight relative to the load-bearing weight of the road.

The Mirage can probably get the full rated range out of a set of tires too, while the heavy SUV will be lucky to get 1/3 of the rated miles per set of tires. So my tire tax proposal works out fairly using the weight benchmark as well.

I would suggest that tire wear is a much more complex issue than lighter vehicle = less wear.

To me it's the same trap as fuel tax: it's a proxy based on some vague notion of a correlation suggested for simplicity of collection instead of accuracy.

The starting point should not be simplicity. The starting point should be accuracy, and you work backwards from there.

 

[adaptabl]

Unless there is a lot of solar power generation on site, then it would make sense to use the power where and when it is being generated.

Actually if that's the case it should be feed back to the grid to reduce demand on power plants that burn carbon fuels. Then charge the cars at night with the excess power production of the grid. The ideal electrical grid should have a constant equal demand for power usage at all times of day. EV's could do a lot to help in this goal if managed responsibly.

 

[adaptabl]

No gas pumps, but I have worked for places that provided free subway passes. Or free parking at work. EV charging is just another version of that in my opinion. In my city, the city owned pay parking structures provide free EV charging.

What happens when/if EV adoption reaches 10%, 25%, 50% or 100%? It will not be sustainable to do this at higher levels. When do you stop? Maybe just don't start in the first place or charge enough that only those who need to, use the chargers.

 

[Need]

If you are able to put in solar, do it, and your home charging goes to zero dollars after a few years.

It is no longer "zero" here with NEM 2.0. SCE got smart and charge a non-bypassable fee for any usage after sun went down even if you generate enough electricity during the day to cover the night. Even though my net bill is in the negative, still have to pay about $30 a month in fees because I am charging at night. Funny thing is that if I charge during the day, my bill will actually be lowered in the winter when I am not using the AC.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Problem with California gas/road taxes is that they have not spent much of the collected money on new and repairing of the existing roads and bridges.

Most of the money has been spent on bicycle lanes, bus lanes, toll roads and expensive HOV lanes. Hundreds of millions have been diverted to the plans and construction of the passenger train in the desert connecting LA to SF. It is a boondoggle that has increased 3 fold in costs since approved. It could have been done much less expensively and faster by supporting a Hyperloop. Mostly a make work project for the unions.

Trucks do most of the damage to the highways. You can tell by driving on the right lane. It is usually all beaten up, while the faster car lanes are much smoother. EVs do little damage to neither the traffic lanes nor the environment.

 

[adaptabl]

Problem with California gas/road taxes is that they have not spent much of the collected money on new and repairing of the existing roads and bridges.

Most of the money has been spent on bicycle lanes, bus lanes, toll roads and expensive HOV lanes. Hundreds of millions have been diverted to the plans and construction of the passenger train in the desert connecting LA to SF. It is a boondoggle that has increased 3 fold in costs since approved. It could have been done much less expensively and faster by supporting a Hyperloop. Mostly a make work project for the unions.

Trucks do most of the damage to the highways. You can tell by driving on the right lane. It is usually all beaten up, while the faster car lanes are much smoother. EVs do little damage to neither the traffic lanes nor the environment.

Move to Michigan. Nothing is spent on the roads I don't think the taxes are spent on any other road project at all. I drove from Michigan to Florida and back in the spring. No problems in any other state. Reach Michigan and it was like driving in Beirut on I75.

 

[Eno Deb]

I did in passing conversation w/one of our facilities folks installing more Tesla wall connectors asked "Chargepoint CT-4000 stations are over $6000 each, right?" Answer was yes. (Was implied it was a dual handle unit, since that's all we have and it wouldn't make sense to install a single handle EVSE.)

Chargepoint has a lease plan which makes the chargers pretty cheap particularly for businesses (for tax reasons). Many states also offer government incentives for workplace charging.

My employer (a Fortune 500 company in Silicon Valley) has a large number of Chargepoint chargers installed on campus. Charging isn't free, but drivers are only charged the actual bulk electricity rate the company gets, which is significantly lower than the residential rates here. I feel this is a good model.

 

[Vines]

I'd say one of the big advantages of EV is they can be charged everywhere at anytime. I'd have no issue with smart grid control over my EV charging during the day to keep the grid stable. As I get to work at 5-6 Am my vehicle is charged well before the big afternoon peak when the AC usually load up around here, my load isn't as bad as if I plugged in at 2pm.

Solar power plus energy storage works out very well for this instance, as years go on there will be more and more storage available, especially during the day. Today that looks like Tesla powerwall, tomorrow maybe bi-directional smart grid EV batteries.

I agree, the wave of the future is a bi-directional power flow to and from a massive fleet of electric cars. This helps with the storage need from a large scale PV deployment, and also stabilizes the grid with hundreds of megawatts of storage available from hundreds of thousands of EV. Deploying both Solar PV and Bi-Directional EV would be exceptional for the growth of renewable sustainable power. Of course not everyone will charge during the day, just like not everyone will charge at night.

 

[SigNC]

That makes no electrical sense. One of the big advantages of EV's is they can charge at night when the demand for power is lower. By having them charge during the day in peak times there will be need for more and more power plants to supply this peak demand. If the entire growing EV market did this, soon there would be a major need for many new power plants to be constructed.

Actually all those EV's should be a source of power for the grid in peak times. Give a big discount for night charging and use a percentage of this power when needed by the rid and the EV's are parked at work. That's a win-win case and an positive environmental impact.

How do you want to power these new plants? Coal, Nuclear power, Natural gas? Currently a large part of California's power is from carbon fuel burning. reducing that demand could allow some of these to close.

If you account for growing photoelectric this may not be the case in the future. In fact I could see a scenario where the grid is flooded with so much solar power during the day that it would be much easier on the grid if EVs took it during the day so they wouldn't have to find a place to get rid of it.

 

[SigNC]

Move to Michigan. Nothing is spent on the roads I don't think the taxes are spent on any other road project at all. I drove from Michigan to Florida and back in the spring. No problems in any other state. Reach Michigan and it was like driving in Beirut on I75.

I was in ohio a few years back and was talking to somebody about driving up to see the ford museum. They warned me about the roads and I just assumed they were making a light hearted joke. Nope, potholes in michigan felt like they could swallow your car. Roads were worse than south carolina and that's saying a lot.

 

[Vines]

If you account for growing photoelectric this may not be the case in the future. In fact I could see a scenario where the grid is flooded with so much solar power during the day that it would be much easier on the grid if EVs took it during the day so they wouldn't have to find a place to get rid of it.

^^Bingo

Additionally a portion of our PV customers are buying enough Powerwalls to offset their entire energy usage. To date we have installed about 2.5 mWh worth of storage capacity between about 75 homes The PV gets produced during the day, and charges the batteries, which discharge each night for the normal house loads. Nest, we will all drive our batteries around with us and replacement costs will be low enough that the extra charge/discharge cycles aren't an issue.

 

[Eno Deb]

Airports should do similar. Install 5-20 and/or possibly something 240v (6-20?) in a row of spots. Reserve charging spot online, print at home, and put on your dashboard. It would be in addition to the parking fee. No permit on the dash, then tow it away. Something like $15/visit + $2 per day to pull a number out of my...

No need for fancy communicating $6k boxes that will never recoup cost. Can replace a lot of warn outlets for that price.

I think NEMA outlets are generally a bad idea. The require each driver to bring their own EVSE, and the outlets will eventually wear out. If a turn key solution like Chargepoint isn't desired, just get a cheap Clipper Creek or similar with a J1772 plug.

 

[bomquito]

How about a Tesla wall instead of a Clipper Creek or J1772 plug?

At work, after getting the approval from our VP, I've applied for the corporate program through Tesla and got 2 of them for free. You can actually get up to 4 of them for free. Then we installed it ourselves at work (our maintenance guy is a licensed electrician). I've been charging at 48A for free since.

I think NEMA outlets are generally a bad idea. The require each driver to bring their own EVSE, and the outlets will eventually wear out. If a turn key solution like Chargepoint isn't desired, just get a cheap Clipper Creek or similar with a J1772 plug.

 

[Eno Deb]

How about a Tesla wall instead of a Clipper Creek or J1772 plug?

At work, after getting the approval from our VP, I've applied for the corporate program through Tesla and got 2 of them for free.

That's nice for us of course, but workplace chargers shouldn't be exclusive to Tesla vehicles (in fact, other EVs such as Leafs etc. have more need for workplace charging due to their shorter range).

You can actually get up to 4 of them for free. Then we installed it ourselves at work (our maintenance guy is a licensed electrician). I've been charging at 48A for free since.

That's fine for small installations, but our company doesn't want to employ service technicians to install, configure and maintain the dozens of chargers we have, which is why they chose Chargepoint.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What do others think of the price of supercharging over the next 5 or 10 years. How much do you think it will increase? This question was triggered by the $5k rebate question for P3D, and which was more valuable. Free supercharging for life, or $5k now?

Here in the bay area its currently $0.26/kWh to supercharge. I'll assume for a moment that the Teslas charging are getting 250 wh/mi, though some will get better or worse than that.

So the cost to drive a Tesla at 250 wh/mi on the supercharger network in California is approximately $0.065 per mile

A 30 mpg ICE, with fuel costs at $3.30/gallon would cost $0.11 per mile.

I personally think it will certainly increase, and probably stay something like 50% or so of the cost of a similar ICE energy dollar per mile.

1. As Tesla becomes more popular, there will be more need for superchargers, that is certainly a given, especially here in the bay area.

2. Neither DOT nor states are getting any taxes for the electrics running on the road. I predict there to be a surcharge to supercharging before 5 years, a tax of sorts on electric power used to charge cars. Not sure whether this tax would be covered under the "Free Supercharging" and paid for by Tesla, or picked up by the end user. I'll bet Tesla will fight hard for the the latter.

3. Currently the cost of a Tesla supercharged mile is a lot less than a ICE mile, granted it does take longer to refuel them. As the supercharger network expand, this will be an issue less and less. High end malls and shopping destinations will more and more cater to Tesla as the clientele is found to be well off, and interested in high quality goods and services.

I'm thinking that supercharging services will cost something like $0.35-0.45 /kWh in 5 years.

Long term, lower relative to grid pricing, but tracking grid pricing.

I think Tesla will only look for Supercharging to be at least break-even, perhaps even with a small loss. The Supercharger network is a selling point to get that big chunk of cash on the car.

At higher volume, with new vehicles being PAYG, and leeches dropping out of the fleet, utilization rates should increase but stabilize. Higher utilization helps lower demand charges per kWh served.

Also long term, I think that the impact of cheap renewables and cheaper batteries will be significant, and increased electrification of transportation could increase political pressure to control electricity prices. Need BEV market penetration to get past the hump of "rich BEV owners" to the angry mob.

 

[brkaus]

I think NEMA outlets are generally a bad idea. The require each driver to bring their own EVSE, and the outlets will eventually wear out. If a turn key solution like Chargepoint isn't desired, just get a cheap Clipper Creek or similar with a J1772 plug.

Fair point. A bunch of 20a featureless j1772 EVSE.

 

[tecis]

If it is over-subscribed, make it 4 hour max. $50 is probably a bit high, but will depend on the area (commute length, etc)

Yep, I think 50 USD is very high actually, most workers don't even come in daily these days with home office and stuff.

4 hour max:
too complicated IMO. Adds complexity. Just install a 14-50 outlet on lets say 50 % of the parking spots outside and prohibit ICE cars parking there.

got an EV car + need a "charging spot"? 20 USD/months, take it or leave it.

The more I think about it, the less I'm convinced the whole charging model makes sense. With big garages: Just do it for free like Tesla Destination chargers. the max. amount of money an employee with an EV could squeeze out a 14-50 would be:

20 days/months, 10 hours/day presence at the office, 9.6 KwH/hour. (which means they must be able to afford a car with a 96 KwH battery in the first place). That's 9.60 USD/day max (based on 10 US-cents/hour).

In other words: The most your employee can cost you in energy alone is a tenner/day. If the employee can afford a 100 KwH Battery. Which means they'll probably have a high salary. Which means a tenner can be thrown in as "expenses"/day.

Model 3 Standard Range: That would be a fiver/day/vehicle (not to forget carpooling and stuff).

With that be worth the installation of "boxes" which communicate with "data centers" in order to make sure everyone gets charged their fare share?

I doubt it.

Airports should do similar. Install 5-20 and/or possibly something 240v (6-20?) in a row of spots. Reserve charging spot online, print at home, and put on your dashboard. It would be in addition to the parking fee. No permit on the dash, then tow it away. Something like $15/visit + $2 per day to pull a number out of my...

.

Even simpler: Non Ev parking spot: x dollars.

Want to park your Ev there => no problem.

Ev Parking spot with level 2 outlet: y dollars. No matter whether you charge or not, no matter how much. Level 2 outlet only.

 

[tecis]

Fair point. A bunch of 20a featureless j1772 EVSE.

Very true. Might be better to just have a simple J1772 which fits into basically every EV.