Probability of new battery tech?

[Robert.Boston]

I know it's probably different in Norway but...

In the U.S., will all the general production S reserves be delivered before the first signature X? I haven't done the projection given the current reservation count for S. Maybe somebody else has.

Last Thursday, Elon said that the Model S was sold out through March 2013, so there's an eight- or nine-month gap between the delivery of the last currently reserved S and the first Signature X.

I agree that, from a business perspective, Tesla will not quickly shift to a new battery chemistry. The "four year cycle" cited by Doug_G seems about right; at least at this stage in its corporate life, Tesla cannot afford to spend the R&D money to incorporate every tweak that Panasonic might make available.

 

[vfx]

Yes, problem is in the word small. Is it still big enough to be worth it or could those development resources be spent elsewhere with bigger ROI?...And then the opportunity for new sells starts to disappear. 1st gen roadster is and will remain to be a 250 mile EV....
As long Tesla is selling cars two years upfront they do not really have a problem with public perception. Sure, it could be better, but for them it is good enough.
Tesla Roadster owners might feel left behind, but there are 'only' few thousands of them and they are already very special and distinctive.

Disagree

1. Tesla not supporting Roadster with depleted batteries will be bad publicity for Tesla and shine a bad light on the entire EV industry.
2. There will be not "stock" Roadster batteries in any amount at some point. Panasonic will not make them and they will not have the shelf life to last many years
3. I was told at the Fremont EVent by a battery engineer that replacing the Roadster batteries with a longer range battery is possible (not difficult) and that's what they will probably do.

 

[WarpedOne]

@vfx
1. Replacement battery with same capacity is something other than replacement battery with higher capacity. Tesla is already using higher capacity cells for more recent cars than what they used for the first batch. There will be new battery packs available for some time, but with same capacity.
2."Roadster battery" is not made by Panasonic, Panasonic makes cells that Tesla builds into Roadster battery.
3. Now this is news. A good news.

 

[vfx]

@vfx
1. Replacement battery with same capacity is something other than replacement battery with higher capacity. Tesla is already using higher capacity cells for more recent cars than what they used for the first batch. There will be new battery packs available for some time, but with same capacity.
2."Roadster battery" is not made by Panasonic, Panasonic makes cells that Tesla builds into Roadster battery.
3. Now this is news. A good news.

1. So car number 2000 is better tha car number 1
2. I have had sheets replaced (sent to Menlo to be matched/balanced) at some point all those matching cells on the shelf will be gone There is the cell VS battery distinction. I was generalizing in a forum where we mostly know the difference.
3. Yes it was the best news of the night for me.



3a. whoo hoo

 

[WarpedOne]

1. Yes, car number 2000 is better than car number 1. And car number 1500 is better than car number 500. Development, revisions and tweaking.
2. Yes, sometimes sheet-replacement is possible, sometimes it is not. I don't have a link now but people were reporting this on this forum.
3. Do you have a hint on time frame?

 

[vfx]

1. Yes, car number 2000 is better than car number 1. And car number 1500 is better than car number 500. Development, revisions and tweaking.
2. Yes, sometimes sheet-replacement is possible, sometimes it is not. I don't have a link now but people were reporting this on this forum.
3. Do you have a hint on time frame?

1. How is car # 500 (mine) not as good as car 1,500 battery wise?
2. Some have had the entire battery repaced
3. sorry, none

 

[WarpedOne]

1. That is not me to answer but Tesla - v1.0, v1.5, v2.0, v2.5 to state the obvious. Then there comes exact cells used in the battery pack. In 2007 - 2009 they where 2200mAh and later became 2400 or 2500mAh, depends who you ask.
2.check
3.check

 

[AnOutsider]

I have nothing to add, but I'm really digging this new numbered list discussion system

 

[NigelM]

I have nothing to add, but I'm really digging this new numbered list discussion system

Monica?

 

[ggr]

Tesla made it a point that the Model S battery cells are not laptop cells like the Roadster's. The 4.0Ah cells are probably laptop cells (or ?). I wouldn't be sure that Panasonic would announce the next-gen automotive cells far in advance, especially if it is developing them together with Tesla.

They did? This is news to me. Maybe they are different chemistry or something, but I'm pretty sure they are still using a zillion little cells.

 

[qwk]

They did? This is news to me. Maybe they are different chemistry or something, but I'm pretty sure they are still using a zillion little cells.

I think he means the same form factor, but automotive specific cells.

 

[Kipernicus]

I think he means the same form factor, but automotive specific cells.

Yes at the Menlo Park tech talk with Nicolas Verzeni they showed us the cell and said it was not a laptop battery but automotive grade cells.

 

[Johan]

So I've been following this thread that I started and apparently I was a bit eager and not hadn't really done my homework on the battery technology, but thanks everyone for educating me (and maybe others)! And I really understand the argument that from a buiseness and reliability standpoint it wise for Tesla not to every 1-2 years switch to the newest cell on the market.

But if there are rapid developments in battery technology in the coming years, wouldn't Tesla at least be wise to offer upgrades (at a market price ofcourse) to their first generation Model S and X buyers? And also, what do you think would be to probability of someone coming in to the market with an "off-brand" replacement battery that fits the form factor? I could see a company specializing in just after-market battery upgrades for Tesla and other makers just like there are now many companies who specialize in after-market tuning of ICE cars. This would ofcourse void the generous Tesla warranty....

 

[ElSupreme]

So I've been following this thread that I started and apparently I was a bit eager and not hadn't really done my homework on the battery technology, but thanks everyone for educating me (and maybe others)! And I really understand the argument that from a buiseness and reliability standpoint it wise for Tesla not to every 1-2 years switch to the newest cell on the market.

But if there are rapid developments in battery technology in the coming years, wouldn't Tesla at least be wise to offer upgrades (at a market price ofcourse) to their first generation Model S and X buyers? And also, what do you think would be to probability of someone coming in to the market with an "off-brand" replacement battery that fits the form factor? I could see a company specializing in just after-market battery upgrades for Tesla and other makers just like there are now many companies who specialize in after-market tuning of ICE cars. This would ofcourse void the generous Tesla warranty....

If Tesla keeps the same battery footprint (or smaller in all dimensions) for their Generation 2 Model S and X I believe they will probably offer new battery options, most likely bigger or cheaper or both. If they keep that footprint I imagine they will sell at very good margins (50% or better) updated packs for older cars. I don't think the Gen 1 Model S will get a Gen 3 battery.

Aftermarket batteries will crop up. I would be really weary about quality both for safety and damage to the rest of the car. But I can see highly reputable aftermarket battery manufactures in the EV field eventually. I bet replacement batteries not made by Tesla get a warranty cut.

Granted voltage differential between cells may prevent upgrading a battery pack. Or a move from Li-Ion.

 

[brianman]

I would be really weary about quality both for safety and damage to the rest of the car.

"leery"?

 

[VolkerP]

And I really understand the argument that from a business and reliability standpoint it wise for Tesla not to every 1-2 years switch to the newest cell on the market.

WRT the few single GM Volt fire incidents, it would be disastrous for Tesla if a single Tesla battery pack fails with even the most minuscule thermal runaway. There is too much at stake to shell out $m for R&D only to earn a few thousand battery pack upgrades.

But if there are rapid developments in battery technology in the coming years, wouldn't Tesla at least be wise to offer upgrades (at a market price of course) to their first generation Model S and X buyers?

Yup. I expect them to do so. To be on the safe side, you can order your car with a battery replacement warranty.

And also, what do you think would be to probability of someone coming in to the market with an "off-brand" replacement battery that fits the form factor? I could see a company specializing in just after-market battery upgrades for Tesla and other makers just like there are now many companies who specialize in after-market tuning of ICE cars. This would of course void the generous Tesla warranty....

You realize the Tesla battery pack has a CAN bus interface? It exchanges messages with the vehicle board computer that have Tesla proprietary content, dealing with state of charge, temperature, requesting AC of the pack, and so on. It is not impossible but very hard to decrypt all possible messages and make a compatible replacement pack.

 

[Doug_G]

I mostly agree with you, but also consider that the engineering focus was changing to Model S long before the Roadster was retired. About all we can say is that the Roadster launched in 2008 with one battery chemistry, and the Model S launches in 2012 with another. That's a four-ish year cycle.

Elon was asked a similar question about cell chemistry changes during the investor Conference Call. He said it would be something like three years between chemistry changes.

 

[tnawara]

"leery"?

Wary.

 

[onlinespending]

regardless of whether new battery tech will make it into the Model X, one thing is for certain. It will be cheaper for the existing tech. Whether Tesla passes on this savings to the customer somewhat, or simply increases its margins is to be seen. But I wouldn't be surprised if they pass on some of that savings to the customer, simply to make the X a bit more attractive when compared to some of its lower-cost SUV competition.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I mostly agree with you, but also consider that the engineering focus was changing to Model S long before the Roadster was retired. About all we can say is that the Roadster launched in 2008 with one battery chemistry, and the Model S launches in 2012 with another. That's a four-ish year cycle. (Yes I know the Roadster was under development long before that, but so was the Model S.)

4 years after 2012 is 2016, about the time of the planned Bluestar launch, which agrees with the time-frame I am talking about. But you have people talking about even earlier than 2014 (maybe even for the Model X). I say that kind of expectation is unrealistic. Like I said, I don't think Tesla will update the batteries on existing models any time soon; they are much more likely to tie it into the launch of a new vehicle. That gives them the best bang for the buck.

Just to play DA for a moment. Don't forget, changing batteries is yet another thing that will encourage new sales. Better - faster is right there win new trim and paint treatment in selling the next years fashion.

Yes, it does encourage new sales, but I think adding new features (like they did with the Roadster) is probably the more cost effective way to do so. Again, I think they will save the newest batteries for a new model launch. There would be a lot more free media coverage for a new model launch (like the Model X launch; since they didn't announce new battery options for the X, I don't expect it to have different cells than the S) rather than for a new battery option (which might not be reported at all in mainstream outlets).