Probability of new battery tech?

[WhiteKnight]

regardless of whether new battery tech will make it into the Model X, one thing is for certain. It will be cheaper for the existing tech. Whether Tesla passes on this savings to the customer somewhat, or simply increases its margins is to be seen. But I wouldn't be surprised if they pass on some of that savings to the customer, simply to make the X a bit more attractive when compared to some of its lower-cost SUV competition.

I think they would pass on the savings by making optional features standard on the new model. Like an iPhone used to be 8GB for $299 and 16GB for $399, now it's 16 GB for $299 and 32GB for $399.

Tesla vehicles will always remain the aspirational premium vehicles and should not really compete directly on price (since they can't beat the monster OEMs strictly on price).

So maybe the Model X has AWD included in the base model at some point. Maybe the Model S has the Technology Package standard at some point.

 

[onlinespending]

I think they would pass on the savings by making optional features standard on the new model. Like an iPhone used to be 8GB for $299 and 16GB for $399, now it's 16 GB for $299 and 32GB for $399.

Tesla vehicles will always remain the aspirational premium vehicles and should not really compete directly on price (since they can't beat the monster OEMs strictly on price).

So maybe the Model X has AWD included in the base model at some point. Maybe the Model S has the Technology Package standard at some point.

right. like offering the 60kWh battery for the current cost of the 40 kWh, allowing the price of the base Model X to be comparable to the base Model S (of today) despite the larger capacity. While I don't think they need to compete directly on price (in terms of raw selling price) with ICE's given the obvious advantages the EV based Tesla cars have, passing on the savings from a reduced cost in battery cells by allowing more bang for your buck (through improved features at the base models) is still a way to be more attractive when compared to the competition.

 

[taigebu]

As much as I'd love to see a new battery capacity for the Tesla X I think it's only one part of the equation...
Can Tesla greatly improve the electric motor efficiency so that it uses less energy to run ?

I don't know anything about electric motor but would that be possible by the time they launch the Model X ?

 

[Johan]

As much as I'd love to see a new battery capacity for the Tesla X I think it's only one part of the equation...
Can Tesla greatly improve the electric motor efficiency so that it uses less energy to run ?

I don't know anything about electric motor but would that be possible by the time they launch the Model X ?

No, very unlikely, the electric motor system is already somewhere around 90% efficient in energy terms.

 

[dsm363]

No, very unlikely, the electric motor system is already somewhere around 90% efficient in energy terms.

Yes. Motor and powertrain are very efficient so things like weight and aerodynamics and more important.

 

[taigebu]

Yes. Motor and powertrain are very efficient so things like weight and aerodynamics and more important.

Ok thanks guys !
Just wanted to know

 

[dsm363]

Ok thanks guys !
Just wanted to know

No problem. Welcome to the forum too.

For the batteries, I can see Tesla doing what Apple does as well with offering bigger batteries (flash store in Apple example) but keeping price points the same.

 

[VolkerP]

As much as I'd love to see a new battery capacity for the Tesla X I think it's only one part of the equation...

Tesla still has 18 months time to announce new battery chemistry and increased capacity packs for Model X. Doing that right now surely would annoy current Model S reservation holders. Their battery packs would be "legacy" even before taking delivery!
Late summer 2013 is the right time to announce that Model X signatures comes with a 100kWh battery pack, boosting prices +$6k over the 85kWh pack.

 

[dsm363]

I think they'll probably keep the current pack sizes. Maybe they'll announce a surprise 100 kWh pack next summer for more money? That would make some press. Signature holders would get bumped up for 'free' even though the price would go up of course.

 

[Johan]

I think they'll probably keep the current pack sizes. Maybe they'll announce a surprise 100 kWh pack next summer for more money? That would make some press. Signature holders would get bumped up for 'free' even though the price would go up of course.

I wish! And if this happens, and under the circumstance that 1) Model S has no big issues 2) Production goes according to schedule 3) I still have a job and make descent money - I will upgrade to signature reservation on the Model X (if there are any left)!

 

[jcstp]

Elon was asked a similar question about cell chemistry changes during the investor Conference Call. He said it would be something like three years between chemistry changes.

I think this also means that after 3 years of cells being tested (in real life?), this allows tesla to upgrade old chemestrie packs to integrate the newer cells.
In other words, I would not be surprised if Tesla would provide at the end of this year, or begin next year a new "upgraded" pack for the roadster with "model S"-cells!

Something similar will probably be possible every 3 years for the other batter-packs from tesla.

 

[dsm363]

I think this also means that after 3 years of cells being tested (in real life?), this allows tesla to upgrade old chemestrie packs to integrate the newer cells.
In other words, I would not be surprised if Tesla would provide at the end of this year, or begin next year a new "upgraded" pack for the roadster with "model S"-cells!

Something similar will probably be possible every 3 years for the other batter-packs from tesla.

That would be 'easy' money for them too I would think. They would sell it at a nice profit of course and get free advertising in the process "Tesla offers new 350 mile pack for Roadster owners"...etc

 

[Johan]

That would be 'easy' money for them too I would think. They would sell it at a nice profit of course and get free advertising in the process "Tesla offers new 350 mile pack for Roadster owners"...etc

I agree - and if they make an upgraded Roadster pack with Model S/X type cells and stick it in such a light car as the Roadster they will again have broken the record for range in a production car, and this one is one the road already! Good press!

 

[RDoc]

One thought on battery capacity is that if they really get their Supercharging network up, battery capacity beyond the current 85kwh may not be a big deal. Lower cost is always welcome though.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I doubt that the SC network will ever be so complete that there won't be some demand for a bigger battery -- just ask the people out West, who (quite reasonably) want to drive 500 miles through lightly traveled landscapes. I admit I'd like to be able to do Boston--Montreal (310 miles) in a single charge, but there at least I'll almost surely have an SC along the way in the next few years.

 

[BenTesla]

It's been a year....How far along are they now do you think? I have to imagine Panasonic would want Tesla to be atleast working with the new cells.....

 

[VolkerP]

Define "working with the new cells", please. Darn sure Tesla has obtained several thousand of the 3.400mAh and 4.000mAh cells and tests them in various setups. They might even put together an experimental Model S pack, loaded with additional sensors, and test drive it around in various environments. But these are just the first steps, months before any options are being announced that will be available for sale.

 

[4sevens.com]

Here's to hoping for additional capacity packs to compensate for additional weight and drag...

110kwh and 140kwh?

 

[Cattledog]

I have no proof, but I think among many reasons the Model X went from starting late 2013 production to 2nd half of 2014 is because an upgraded pack is in the works. Would need to be 100+ KWh to attract real buzz.

Here's to hoping for additional capacity packs to compensate for additional weight and drag...

110kwh and 140kwh?

 

[aronth5]

Here's to hoping for additional capacity packs to compensate for additional weight and drag...

110kwh and 140kwh?

Perhaps some improvement over the existing 85kWh based on the two newer Panasonic batteries 3.4ah and 4.0ah but there are many variables including the higher weight of the 4.ah batteries, degradation with recharge cycles over time and many other variables that require extensive testing by Tesla. More likely Gen3 will see a larger jump. 140kWh is highly unlikely in the next couple of years for the X.