Production vs. Accepted Deliveries on M3

[Woody17]

Hello Fellow TMC-ers.

As I see more and more M3s on the road in my town, I keep pondering on the idea that while Tesla may be able to produce 20k+ M3 a month, are 20k+ customers taking delivery on the Long Range M3? Is there any possibility that the cars are being stockpiled as many customers wait for the $35k Model 3? A simple line of code can limit the battery, similar to the 60/75kwh battery in the Model S.

I looked into the Model 3 Order Tracker Spreadsheet and was curious if someone can dive into the analytics of this, because I think the findings would be interesting.

Here is the spreadsheet:
Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

My questions are:
1- What is the percentage of M3 customers that use this spreadsheet?
2- Can a reasonable estimate be made of how many customers have accepted delivery of the 20k+ M3s that are being produced?

Let me state: I am Long TSLA. I am a Model S owner, and disciple of Mr. Musk.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Personally, I think the tracking spreadsheet - while great originally - is becoming obsolete. The reason is because the balance of respondents were Day 1 enthusiasts, most of whom have received, or at least, ordered their Model 3s. I think the new orderers haven't been as obsessive and posted to the sheet. Also, since ordering was opened up to all North America in late June, it's a bit redundant when I get "my invite".

On the question of how many are being "stockpiled", I just can't imagine the logic of Tesla doing any of that on purpose since passing 200,000 cars in the US - they're too short of cash! So my thinking would be the ones in transit are staying roughly proportional to production. it was really high at end of Q2 (~40%?), but this might have been because of the 200,000 cap. It should be less now, hopefully < 20% of production at any given time. Unless their delivery logistics is the new bottleneck. Hope this adds to the discussion.

re your poll, there will always be some cars in transit, so it's not a Yes or No question IMHO.

 

[Woody17]

Thanks for your response.

Personally, I think the tracking spreadsheet - while great originally - is becoming obsolete. The reason is because the balance of respondents were Day 1 enthusiasts, most of whom have received, or at least, ordered their Model 3s.

Yes Agreed. Was great when taking delivery of my Model S.

On the question of how many are being "stockpiled", I just can't imagine the logic of Tesla doing any of that on purpose since passing 200,000 cars in the US - they're too short of cash!

Yes, and therein lies my concern....

There was so much attention on getting to the 5k/week number that they decided to make regardless of those actually configuring/taking delivery... because they can easily downgrade the cars to the short-range model.

 

[Woody17]

re your poll, there will always be some cars in transit, so it's not a Yes or No question IMHO.

Let me rephrase: Are all of the Model 3s being produced for confirmed customer orders?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

The easy answer is that if they had a problem with US demand they'd open up configuration for the rest of the world and start shipping there. We'd take them

 

[ewoodrick]

Hello Fellow TMC-ers.

As I see more and more M3s on the road in my town, I keep pondering on the idea that while Tesla may be able to produce 20k+ M3 a month, are 20k+ customers taking delivery on the Long Range M3? Is there any possibility that the cars are being stockpiled as many customers wait for the $35k Model 3? A simple line of code can limit the battery, similar to the 60/75kwh battery in the Model S.

I looked into the Model 3 Order Tracker Spreadsheet and was curious if someone can dive into the analytics of this, because I think the findings would be interesting.

Here is the spreadsheet:
Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

My questions are:
1- What is the percentage of M3 customers that use this spreadsheet?
2- Can a reasonable estimate be made of how many customers have accepted delivery of the 20k+ M3s that are being produced?

Let me state: I am Long TSLA. I am a Model S owner, and disciple of Mr. Musk.

1) 1% or less
2) most all