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Proposal for Q2 Celebration and beyond; Invitation for Julian Cox!!!

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by kevin99, Jul 22, 2013.

  1. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    #1 kevin99, Jul 22, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2013
    With so much insightful analysis from Julian, I think we owe him a big thank you if Q2 does work out as he predicted. I like to propose the following radical celebration:

    If the Q2 earning achieves the number AND the TSLA prices hit the target defined by the performance criteria below;
    We will host a Q2 celebration party in the TSLA investment HQ (the Bay Area, or should I say Las Vegas?). We will invite Julian Cox as our a highly respected Tesla analyst and sponsor all his expense, including his valuable time.

    Performance Criteria:

    1. Tesla Q2 earning has a $.02 profit on a GAAP basis (previously was mistakenly stated as non-GAAP, in any case, I mean the more restricted way of reporting);
    AND

    2. TSLA stock price reaches in intraday high of $150 by the week ended on Friday Aug. 9th. (see update section)

    So we will decide go or not by Sunday Aug. 11th. The party will be on Aug. 17 Saturday in Viva Las Vegas!


    There are many finer details can be tuned, such as

    a. performance criteria;
    b. the location of celebration;
    c. what other 'analysts' to invite
    d. logistic etc.

    Feel free to suggest but don't get into too much nick-pick stuff. We don't have a month to debate on small stuff. This event is intent as a celebration + investment seminar on TSLA.

    I am in to sponsor this celebration. I hope to get 5-10 "Founders" to sponsor it as well.

    I plan to invite all 20 members of the Founder circle of TESLIVE, and all key personnel and moderators of this forum. This will be an invite only event. Again I welcome suggestion on the logistic side so it can be accessible to all members who share the same vision and like to be involved.

    If I see enough interest, I will start a Google Doc to share thoughts.

    -------------Update -------------------------------------------------

    I think I only need total of 3 "founders" to sponsor the targeted guest/speaker so far. J. All other participants can pay their own expense.

    Even if there is total of 5 people sign up, I will make it a go! There is no need for a large audience.

    Obviously, more people, the better for celebration. More "Founders", then we can invite more contributors to join.

    -------------Update -------------------------------------------------

    So far I have 4 people showing interest. So I think it is a GO already. Now we just need the performance criteria to be hit!

    I start working on the logistic.
    Note the updated version is always here: Tesla Q2 celebration - Google Drive


    --------------------------correction-----------------------------
    1. Tesla Q2 earning has a $.02 profit on a GAAP basis (previously was mistakenly stated as non-GAAP, in any case, I mean the more restricted way of reporting);

    ------------update-------

    #2 criterion has been updated. It was
    "
    2. On Aug. 8th, (after earning release of Aug.7), Tesla stock price hits a high of $150 during regular trading hours; OR price closes above $145 at the end of regular trading hours.
    "
     
  2. BlueTan85

    BlueTan85 Member

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    Hmm. A bit premature IMHO. We are all hoping for a great Q2 but I personally am laying low and not jinxing anything until the announcement's out. Nothing's a done deal until they announce.
     
  3. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    If those are the criteria then you might as well throw the party today.

    Tesla will have at least $0.20/share on a non-GAAP basis. Minimum!
     
  4. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    Ok I might be a bit out of date. But don't forget the other criteria. I will certainly buy you a party trip if TSLA hits $150 or close above $145, if you did contribute to educate this forum :).
     
  5. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    Folks, let's put money where it is due. This investment group is the most intellectual one I've ever experienced. To recognize the contributions for certain individuals who help educating the fellow members, I propose we have a Q2 celebration party if earning do comes out much stronger and TSLA price hits certain target. As an extreme case, I have Julian Cox in mind:

    Proposal for Q2 Celebration and beyond; Invitation for Julian Cox!!!!!!

    However there are many other individuals who also deserves credit for their valuable and tireless analysis. So please share your suggestions there!
     
  6. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Kevin,

    I plan on modelling Tesla's Q2 earnings before Aug. 7 and updating the board on what my exact expectations are. In the mean time my posts are scattered all over the board about what to expect from Tesla in Q2. I have also written a lot about solar energy, because that is the one industry that I think will have huge returns in the very near future.

    Going back to Tesla, they have more car sales and significantly better margins going in their favor vs. Q1. The downside is increased SG&A and possibly lower ZEV credits (and no warrantly liability gain). I think the upside significantly outweighs the negatives, hence my $0.20 EPS number at a minimum. Their are other unknown items such as forex, tax rate, car mix (40 kWh & 60 kWh most likely offset by Performance Plus), development revenue (risk is to the upside IMO).

    I think that if Tesla plays their cards right with guidance ($1 EPS for 2013, 24,000 cars delivered) then the stock could hit $200. Of course, I might be missing some significant expenditures in my estimates, but I cannot think of any that may have slipped (capex is amortized over many, many years).

    I cannot envision a scenario where Tesla has negative earnings unless ZEV credits go down by 50%+ and everything else works against them, i.e. forex, taxes, etc.
     
  7. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    With so many insightful analysis from many individuals who help educating the fellow members, I think the longs are in a great position to recognize those individuals for their valuable and tireless analysis.

    I propose we have a Q2 celebration party if earning do comes out much stronger and TSLA price hits certain target. As an extreme case, I have Julian Cox in mind:

    Proposal for Q2 Celebration and beyond; Invitation for Julian Cox!!!!!!

    However there are many other individuals who also deserves credit as well so please share your thoughts there.

    We want to celebrate and look beyond. As my investment thesis goes, I see TSLA as the stock of decade. However to me it is not just simply a buy and hold strategy. There is also risk management and how to hedge against big pull back. This event will be a investment seminar to bounce ideas.
     
  8. Convert2013

    Convert2013 Member

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    Was thinking around the same lines, but only after we hit $200 :) I can gather my friends who are Tesla owners and we can drive up to SF area on a weekend for wine (as Elon loves) and good food.. Thoughts?
     
  9. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    That's going to be a long list. I suggested the following folks who I consider the investment brains on this thread for a TESLIVE investment panel discussion:

    CapitalistOppressor
    Norbert
    JRP3
    luvb2b
    smorgasbord
    Citizen-T
    Curt Renz

    I don't think the panel discussion happened (I had a conflict and could not attend TESLIVE).

    I'd also add sleepyhead, who provided some excellent analysis and advice on SolarCity and SunPower.

    Btw. Great suggestion for a celebration event--if in the Bay Area count me in.
     
  10. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    Just to be clear, sleepyhead has had some very helpful posts on TSLA as well, but yeah, without sleepyhead I wouldn't have invested in SPWR.
     
  11. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    +1
    Dont forget Renesola which is up 13% today.

    I have made alot of Money on him lately!

    I also consider Johan and DonPedro is great alternatives!
     
  12. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    Norse, are you trying to drag this convention to the west coast of Norway?
     
  13. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    Would be fun! We have (soon) most Teslas per capita. Alot of investors aswell.
     
  14. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    #14 kevin99, Jul 22, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    Cool, I got you and the Mrs. on board. Now I need 4 more "Founders" to sponsor it. :)

    I hope we can really pull this off! Then I can digest the rest of your post in person. Man your writing is not easy to follow but I know they are valuable. :)

    --------Update------------------

    Actually I think I only need total of 3 "founders" to sponsor. All other participants can pay their own expense.

    Even if there is only total of 5 people sign up, I will make it a go! There is no need for a large audience.

    Obviously, more people, the better for celebration. More "Founders", then we can invite more contributors to enlighten us!
     
  15. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    Post an update:

    I think I only need total of 3 "founders" to sponsor the targeted guest/speaker(JC) so far. All other participants can pay their own expense.

    Even if there is total of 5 people sign up, I will make it a go! There is no need for a large audience.

    Obviously, more people, the better for celebration. More "Founders", then we can invite more contributors to enlighten us!



    Thanks sleepyhead. As a TSLA long, your words are all music to me. That is exactly why I proposed this event. Investment on TSLA is becoming a serious matter. To some, it is probably more important than holding a job in term of financial reward and future potential. And it will become even more so in years to come.

    I don't want to treat any analysis lightly, or just words of debates. I try to evaluate others' theory and if I agree on it, I make investment decision accordingly, with different size in accordance of confidence level. So you can have the most optimistic projection, but if I can't make much out of that, then it is not as meaningful as a theory that helps form my investment decision.

    I look forward to your modeling! $200? Bring it on!
     
  16. Alpha

    Alpha Member

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    I would like to go! But it's probably going to be on the west coast eh? Can't make it then...
     
  17. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    We will have to hold our own party here in the southeast :p

    Well, once our superchargers are installed...
     
  18. Acmykguy

    Acmykguy Member

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    i would be happy to chip in and partake.
     
  19. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Looks like I got negative reputation for my post in this thread; the (anonymous) person who left me the negative reputation did not post a comment why. I don't think that what I posted is unreasonable especially since I promised that I will model my earnings forecast (probably not until a couple of days before earnings though).
     
  20. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    I'm in. I've enjoyed Julian's ability to be certain, where I am constantly cautious.
     

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