I’m speculating that at some point they will not be shipping the same hardware on all cars. If they can save $1k on cheaper equipment and cover EAP or safety features, it seems to me like they have to do it. They can still design for an easy swap.
the HW2.5 computer and HW3 computer cost the same to Tesla, so no reason to use 2.5 at all once 3 is production ready- it costs more to have 2 different parts in the MFG and supply chain anyway.
What is the cost for taking delivery now for a FSD (assuming I pay for FSD up front).
FSD is 3k if you pay before you take delivery (you have to ask for it since it's no longer sold "on menu" and 5k if you pay for it after delivery.
It's possible this price will be higher once they start delivering HW3 cars and enabling FSD-exclusive features, but that's just speculation right now.
It certainly won't be cheaper though- which is why waiting makes no financial sense, especially with the declining tax credit.
Also I assumed the HW3 is projected to be before the June 31?
Sure. Just like advanced summon was projected before Dec 31, but only JUST got approved by regulators. Tesla isn't awesome on hitting dates that precisely for things like this.
I certainly expect it "around" mid-year, but that could very easily be July 15 as it could be May 15th
I really appreciate your analysis. Go a step further for me: I have a car that drives just fine now. My next car will be a Tesla (most likely model 3 LR AWD with aero wheels). I could afford to buy at any moment but obv the HW3 is the elephant in the room.
What is the cost of buying now vs cost of buying after HW3 is installed?
It's $1875 cheaper (tax credit) buying today versus on July 1 or later (these are take-delivery dates, not place your order dates).
It was $1750 cheaper than THAT if you'd done is before Dec 31 so you already missed the lowest price on any current model.
In all cases if you pay for FSD you get HW3 no matter when you buy the 3 (though may have to have a 30 minute swap done for free to get it)....and if you don't get FSD then HW3 isn't needed for anything else.