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Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by sub, Aug 7, 2013.

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  1. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Agreed. The demand for this will be huge, especially if TM has been delivering on SC roll outs and lived up to guidance over the next year. You may see the deposit amount decreased to $2,500 at some point, like they did with the S.
     
  2. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Well-Known Member

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    I'd think it would be at least $2,500 to start, possibly lowered later. There should be more than enough people wanting the car right off that I think that they could, indeed, ask for $5,000 and still have a huge waiting list.
     
  3. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    I'd put $5000 down without a problem- I think they might choose a $2-$3000 number though
     
  4. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    I'm torn. I'd put the money down in an instant but for the fact that I'm probably going to be getting a fairly basic model and I expect a deposit won't move me up the line very much.
     
  5. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    I'm not sure I follow... Why would they "have to" pre-announce earnings if they had a 20%+ beat? Is this a regulatory thing?
     
  6. blakegallagher

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    I think you will significantly reduce your wait time for a basic model. I think it is very likely to get 100s of thousands of reservations before cars actually start rolling off the line. Even if you are getting a bare bones model I think if you reserve within the first week you will get your car much sooner than if you wait until production starts. Unless they surprise even the biggest bulls like myself the wait-list for gen 3 will be huge. They should go with a 2-3k deposit so they can cast a much wider net IMO.
     
  7. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    #427 TSLAopt, Oct 25, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
    Anyone else have any predictions?

    I will take a simple stab at it per my below research (a, b, and c) on threads 1 and 2 within this forum cited below

    Facts:
    5150 cars delivered in Q2
    Data Points below could imply Q2 deliveries of (6205 + 6070)/2 = 6137.5
    This is 987.5 higher than actual deliveries. 83.9% of 6137.5 = 5150

    Applying the same principles above for Q3
    Data Points below could imply Q3 deliveries of (7932 + 9066)/2 = 8499
    83.9% of 8499 = 7131 reported deliveries for Q3



    MY ESTIMATE Q3 DELIVERIES is 7131
    (based on above formula using the below data points - 2b below I am least happy with as a data point)




    1a)
    VINs I see delivered on the last day of Q1 on this thread are 7924 and 8714 (8319 average and will use ths number)
    Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 234

    1b)
    the highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q2 endng was 14524 from this thread:
    Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 267

    1c)
    the highest VIN I saw delivered prior 9/27 is 22456 on the same thread
    Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 307


    2a)
    Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q1 ending on this thread is 7845
    Model S Delivery Update - Page 479

    2b)
    Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q2 ending was on this thread actually the same person as thread #1 with 14524 so I won't use that same datapoint is 1b above. Next highest VIN after June 30th reported on this thread is VIN 15562 but took delivery on July 10th so not using that either as its too far of an outlier. However, the closest VIN delivered just two days prior to end of Q2 is 13915 so will use this data point
    Model S Delivery Update - Page 534

    2c)
    Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q3 ending on ths same thread is 22981
    Model S Delivery Update - Page 590


    Important assumptions I have made are:
    -same proportion of cars in transit at end of Q3 as prior quarter(s)
    -same proportion of VINs produced that are just for showrooms/loaners or skipped during Q3 as prior quarter(s)


    Homework for anyone to try and improve this estimate:
    Perhaps someone could go a step further and PM the people who reported their deliveries on those threads at the end of each quarter but did not volunteer their VINs. If we could get several more VINs at each of these data points I think it could be a more accurate estimate, excluding the fact that my assumptions noted above could be off.
     
  8. Convert2013

    Convert2013 Member

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    good stuff. Although I am comfy around 6500, I will stick to the higher numbers as I have them on the list just because of what I'm hearing from Elon about his plans for next year- that 1/4 of the factory is now being used, etc.
     
  9. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    #429 AlMc, Oct 25, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
    TSLAopt: Thanks. I hope you are right with > 7,000 Q3 deliveries. I think it is a bit high (Obviously opinion, not fact, as none of us knows the actual number). Reasons I believe it more in the 6-6,500 range. First, I would suspect with more cars produced Q3 vs. Q2 there are more cars in transit. Second, there are more Service Centers and Showrooms in Q3 vs. Q2. This requires more cars dedicated to those areas and each Service Center probably is busier with more Model Ss on the road so they need more loaners at each of these locations.

    Just my 2 cents. But I like your > 7,000 number better than my number as a TSLA holder:wink:




    ****As much as I want a huge beat on deliveries/production and the GM. I really want to hear some good stuff on guidance: Supply chain is not an issue; GM close to 25%; Model X reservations so big they are moving up production date; China reservations larger than expected; European demand exceeds expectation; Maybe even discussion of impending deal with a Chinese Company to build another factory in China to take care of the Asian market.
     
  10. BruceH

    BruceH Member

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    I think we should just apply the most reliable data source, which is from Mr Musk that they started the Q3 with ~ 500/W and exit with ~550/W. Just saw a picture taken from some Chinese tourist indicating the production rate as of today (not very clear though), which pretty much supports the 550/W at the end of Q3. 6e8e05acgw1e9y6fkoi5mj21kw1kwk56.jpg
     
  11. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Its going to be important to get a early reservation in IMO to be sure you get the tax credit. $5k seems too high and since it is supposed to be an affordable car that should also mean an affordable reservation amount, $1k - $2.5k
     
  12. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    #432 DaveT, Oct 25, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
    Do you have a link to this?
     
  13. BruceH

    BruceH Member

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    Sure:

    http://www.weibo.com/dennythecow

    However this is a Chinese version of twitter and you prob. won't be able to see it unless you register. Since the guy clearly visited the factory today as indicated by various photos he took, as I attached here, I wouldn't doubt the validity of the number. Besides the indication of the production rate exiting Q3, I think we are on track for the guide 600/W production rate, at least.
    QQ图片20131025221250.jpg
     
  14. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Not doubting it is authentic but the pix taker must have quickly snapped this as cameras are not allowed and the ONLY thing I can read says 570. If that is this week then 'push' at end of quarter could have been 590/600 per week. It is a data point...but what point....
     
  15. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    I personally don't think VINs can be accurate in giving us estimates of cars delivered. We don't know how many VINs were assigned that weren't delivered prior to Q3, so it's really tough to reach any reasonably accurate conclusions.

    Further, it appears that people are getting their VINs assigned relatively shortly after they confirm, but the wait time has grown for U.S. customers (from roughly 1 month to 2 months - this is very approximate). So, it looks like VINs are growing faster than actual cars delivered. So anybody using VINs for Q3 delivery estimates will likely be overly optimistic IMO.

    My current Q3 estimates are 5500-5800 cars delivered. This comes from 6300 cars produced (12 weeks x 525 cars/week avg) minus 200-500 cars on the boat to Europe minus - 200 loaners/store cars minus extra 100 cars in U.S./Canada transit.

    I was originally thinking Tesla didn't have any cars to Europe on the boat at the end of Q3, but reading over the EU delivery thread it appears that several people have received their Model Ss delivered in mid-October (thus meaning their cars were on the boat at the end of Q3).
     
  16. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    Oh thank you random Chinese tourist.

    I can make it out quite clearly. It says:

    This Week's Production Numbers

























































































































    Weekly Goal Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
    Assembly 570 Plan 114 114 114 114 456
    (Factory Gate) Actual 115 115 103 116 449
    Difference 1 1 -11 2 -7
    Paint 570 Plan 114 114 114 114 456
    Actual 120 116 115 110 461
    Difference 6 2 1 -4 5
    Body 570 Plan 114 114 114 114 456
    Actual 119 104 119 115 457
    Difference 5 -10 5 1 1
     
  17. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Thanks. Excellent vision on your part. Looks like this is 114/day with 5 day work week. Do they work Saturdays as well? Some Saturdays near end of month/end of quarter?

    So, as Dave T suggested: average 525/week X 12 weeks= 6,300 for Q3 for production.
     
  18. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Well, we know they left Q2 with 550/week and the picture taken shows a 570 target at the end of Q3 - and it shows it being met. So I see no reason not to think 550-570 cars are being produced per week - that's 110-115 per day. Now I seem to remember 1 US weekday-holiday in Q3, so depending on whether they took the 1st week of the quarter off or not, we had 60 or 65 workdays. That gets us 6600-7475 cars. (The range is 110x60 in the worst case to 115x65 in the best case).
    I fully agree with Dave's guesstimate of 200-500 "on the boat" and 200 lonaers (not sold), so, going with figures in the middle, I'd say 60 days X 113 cars minus 550 in transit or serving as loaners gets us to 6200 sold. And remember, most of the early EU deliveries should have been Sigs, plus we now have extra winter, etc. packages, so we should have a higher ASP than Q2.

    6200 (but even 6000+) cars sold should "surprise" Wall Street, so I still think we will have a nice rally for the stock.
     
  19. NStar

    NStar Member

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    I just found a bigger version of the picture in that guy's weibo (Chinese twitter) account and can confirm that all the numbers in EarlyAdopter's post above are exactly correct. this was taken yesterday, almost 4 weeks after the end of Q3. DaveT's estimate 525/week x 12 weeks = 6300 production for Q3 seems more reasonable.
     
  20. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    Davet,
    I agree with you that by itself the assignment of VINs is not a reliable indicator. That is sort of my reason for my Q2 analysis first to show a metric on HOW unreliable the VINS are and how I came up with my magic PROPORTION (83.9%) number noted below. I first looked at Q2 actual deliveries (5150) and compared it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q2 to end of Q2. 5150 turns out to be 83.9% of that number. Therefore, I took that same PROPORTION (83.9%) and applied it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q3 to end of Q3.
    i think the 83.9% PROPORTION is key for my estimate, and am tempted to do the same thing for Q1 to see if its also close to 83.9% but there were no cars being made for Europe at the end of Q1 and if I remember correct they had a lot of temp workers in Q1 so those two things combined I'm not sure if that would make a completely different PROPORTION number or not.

    If you or anyone can tell me what they think the fallacies in using this 83.9% PROPORTION method are then please let me know
     
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