Yes In that guy's weibo account there is EXIF info of that picture and 2013-10-25 13:08:30 was the picture taken time. He did say the tour took place "today" in his weibo "tweet" dated 10/26 (which has to be China time, 15 hours ahead of Tesla local time)
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Yes In that guy's weibo account there is EXIF info of that picture and 2013-10-25 13:08:30 was the picture taken time. He did say the tour took place "today" in his weibo "tweet" dated 10/26 (which has to be China time, 15 hours ahead of Tesla local time)
Alright guys, here's a summary of the latest in discussion:
1. Tesla started Q3 at under 500 cars/week. This is very clear in the Q2 shareholder letter (http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...9/Q2'13 Tesla Motors Shareholder Letter.pdf):
"During Q2, we improved our production rate by 25% from 400 to almost 500 vehicles per week."
"Almost 500" is open to speculation, but my estimate is that they ended Q2 at about 490 cars/week production.
2. According to the Chinese tourist pic, it's now clear that Tesla is at about 570 cars/week (as of this past week) production rate.
It's already late-October and if they're at 570/week, my estimate is that they ended Q3 production at about 550 cars/week production.
3. So, my current estimate for Q3 production is 520 cars/week (avg of 490 and 550) x 12 weeks = 6240 cars produced minus 200-500 on boat/transit to Europe minus 200 loaners/store cars minus 100 cars U.S./Canada transit = 5440-5740 cars delivered in Q3.
*note: factory rested on first week of July so there was only 12 weeks in Q3 of production.
1. Tesla started Q3 at under 500 cars/week. This is very clear in the Q2 shareholder letter (http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...9/Q2'13 Tesla Motors Shareholder Letter.pdf):
"During Q2, we improved our production rate by 25% from 400 to almost 500 vehicles per week."
"Almost 500" is open to speculation, but my estimate is that they ended Q2 at about 490 cars/week production.
2. According to the Chinese tourist pic, it's now clear that Tesla is at about 570 cars/week (as of this past week) production rate.
It's already late-October and if they're at 570/week, my estimate is that they ended Q3 production at about 550 cars/week production.
3. So, my current estimate for Q3 production is 520 cars/week (avg of 490 and 550) x 12 weeks = 6240 cars produced minus 200-500 on boat/transit to Europe minus 200 loaners/store cars minus 100 cars U.S./Canada transit = 5440-5740 cars delivered in Q3.
*note: factory rested on first week of July so there was only 12 weeks in Q3 of production.
I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.
Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.
Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.
The design rate of the Model S/X production line is about 80 cars per shift. Since Tesla factory currently operate two shifts, the corresponding " as designed" rate would be 160 cars per day or 800 cars/week. During the Q2 ER the average gross margin guidance for Q4 was 25%. It is unlikely that this guidance can be achieved with two shift production output that is significantly lower that "as designed" output. Because of this I think that Q4 production will have to be higher then 600 cars/week if 25% gross margin guidance will be met.
Regarding the 570 cars/week production, I agree that this is an incredible achievement and should be celebrated, not mentioned as a disappointment in any way. I, however, think that the average weekly output is currently higher than that :smile:. Consider, for instance, what Elon mentioned in Germany, i.e. that current rate of cars produced for USA is about 400 per week. Based on interviews Elon did during the Geneva auto show, the European deliveries in 2013 were to be 5,000 to 7,000 cars. This corresponds to average European production output of 208 to 291 cars/week. The total would then have to be higher than 600 cars/week.
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TSLAopt - here why I think your PORPORTION method is faulty. Some time Q3 there appears to be a significant increase in the pace of VINs released. This is in all likelihood due to European shipments starting and Tesla releasing VIN numbers to European customers. So, if you can imagine in Q2, there was a steady order flow of 500 new confirmations per week, and Tesla could issue VINs at that pace. Furthermore, they could deliver at around that pace as week. So, VINs issued could relate to deliveries in some way (still although not accurately because order rate might have been slightly faster than delivery rate. However, in Q3 there was a significant boost in the pace of order confirmations due to Europe. So, for example while in Q2 we might have had 500 order confirmations per week, in Q3 we might have had 700 order confirmations per week (i.,e 500 U.S./Canada, 200 Europe). However, Tesla was not able to ramp up production/delivery to meet the increased order confirmation rate. In fact, they still could only produce/deliver cars at around the 500 cars/week rate. As a result, since most VINs are issued shortly after order/config confirmation the number of VINs issued in Q3 significantly outpaced the number of cars delivered in Q3.
While you might be able to see some high VIN # cars delivered in Q3, that doesn't give us a good indication of how many cars were delivered because there was a significant number of VINs being issued but delivery not scheduled until much later. As a result, starting Q3 we have a significant "VIN waiting list" (ie., cars that have VINs issued but delivery is schedule 2 months later in U.S. or 3+ months later in Europe). In Q2, the "VIN waiting list" was much, much smaller due to their production rate being closer to the order confirmation rate.
So, in summary the 83.9% PROPORTION method doesn't work because there was a significant boost in VINs in Q3 that weren't delivered due to production rates falling behind order confirmation rates significantly.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I don't think they've yet achieved 600/week. Mid-Sept they were at 550. We all start taking pieces and bits of quotes and some VIN numbers and the hair of a unicorn or two and talk ourselves into fantastical results ... let's just wait for the earnings call on Nov. 5th. I'd love to be wrong, but I'd be shocked if they even came close to 600, much less achieved it. I think the real number will range between 550 - 570 for EOQ, most likely at 570.
The Geneva Auto Show was in March 2013, I believe. So that's a really long time ago. I don't think European deliveries will be 5000-7000 cars this year. It will be far less. I would imagine Tesla producing an average (over the quarter) of 400 cars for U.S. and 150+ cars for Europe currently. The 570 cars/week (current rate) is by far the strongest data point we have. I agree with Bonnie that our expectations/hope should be for Tesla to hit 600 cars/week by the end of the year.
As a lot of other posters on this thread, I think that 2014 production guidance will be one of the most important metrics during the Q3 ER call. One of the pleasant surprises in Elon's QA in Germany was his prediction of possibly delivering about 200 cars/week for German customers, or about 10,000 cars per year. This is unbelievably high number! German auto sales market is approximately 25% of the European market ( best-selling-cars.com/europe/2012-first-half-car-sales-by-european-country/ ). If one assumes European penetration the same as in Germany, Tesla might be planning annual rate of 40,000 European deliveries by the end of 2014.
Considering that US and European auto markets are approximately equal in size, the US annual rate would have to be also in the vicinity of 40,000 cars year.
There will have to be also planned sizable Asian deliveries by the end of 2014.
So will the guidance for 2014 during the Q3 ER be as high as Elon's target for Germany suggest it will be?
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Dave, how do you think Tesla can achieve average 25% margin during the Q4 with the two shift operation output at 75% of "as designed" rate?
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I am having hard time to believe that Tesla will deliver less than 5000 - 7000 cars to Europe. After all both Elon and Guillen (interview with German Manager Magazin) stating that Tesla is doing everything possible to deliver cars to European customers who waited so long. I would not dismiss Elons words during the Geneva auto show so easily.
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http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mosaictheory.asp
A method of analysis used by security analysts to gather information about a corporation. Mosaic theory involves collecting public, non-public and non-material information about a company in order to determine the underlying value of the company's securities and to enable the analyst to make recommendations to clients based on that information.
Considering that US and European auto markets are approximately equal in size, the US annual rate would have to be also in the vicinity of 40,000 cars year.
There will have to be also planned sizable Asian deliveries by the end of 2014.
So will the guidance for 2014 during the Q3 ER be as high as Elon's target for Germany suggest it will be?
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Dave, how do you think Tesla can achieve average 25% margin during the Q4 with the two shift operation output at 75% of "as designed" rate?
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I am having hard time to believe that Tesla will deliver less than 5000 - 7000 cars to Europe. After all both Elon and Guillen (interview with German Manager Magazin) stating that Tesla is doing everything possible to deliver cars to European customers who waited so long. I would not dismiss Elons words during the Geneva auto show so easily.
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http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mosaictheory.asp
Definition of 'Mosaic Theory'
A method of analysis used by security analysts to gather information about a corporation. Mosaic theory involves collecting public, non-public and non-material information about a company in order to determine the underlying value of the company's securities and to enable the analyst to make recommendations to clients based on that information.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I was using only Elon's quotes and company gross margin guidance. Not sure where unicorns came from... :smile:
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
The unicorn reference was admittedly made up 
... but I don't think that using quotes and gross margin guidance from different points in time will necessarily lead to a solid conclusion. My numbers come from other sources. But again, Nov 5th will prove out what the numbers actually are.
... but I don't think that using quotes and gross margin guidance from different points in time will necessarily lead to a solid conclusion. My numbers come from other sources. But again, Nov 5th will prove out what the numbers actually are.According to teslamotors.com/supercharger - there is currently 31 supercharges, and 45 additional superchargers to be operation in America by FALL 2013. I find it very doubtful there will be even 50 by the end of the year. Dissapointing. My optimistic side hopes the Elon mentions at earnings, oh by the way investors, we opened 40 additional superchargers overnight. Too bad that is unlikely.
As well as the estimates of cars that were actually produced this quarter (Q3) and making allowance for cars being shipped, won't there be sales of cars that were built last quarter but were in transit to Europe? Or did we conclude that they weren't really in transit?
I guess my point is we appear to be behind on superchargers, based on quick math or a chart. Confirmation or a backpedal on the supercharger roll-out may effect the stock price.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I think you confuse owner disappointment with shareholder disappointment. If they guide that demand is insatiable and tell us that the didn't build as many Superchargers as planned, no investor is going to be pulling his hair out screaming, "why did you not spend more money!"
BTW, I'm not sure what your quick math was, but my observation has been that the rate of Supercharger openings has not been linear. If you accelerate the rate over time you can certainly make the remaining stations fit into this year. That doesn't mean that they will, just that it can be done.
My point is: how do you know we're behind? Are you assuming a steady rate of completion? (which was not the case in Norway; all six there opened at once) Or do you have some information that construction has not started (or cannot be completed in time) for the missing ones in the US?
No I have no personal knowledge of my own, I have just been watching the progress on the supercharger map and some whispers of the deployment on TMC. It seems as if they have several in progress and I agree the growth won't be linear, but all the same accomplishing the 80+ superchargers and then the next wave of Winter 2013 seems insurmountable. Citizen T, your observation of the investor impact seems logical, thanks for that.
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Clprenz
Member
I think my final bet will be: 6250 cars delivered, based on tourist photo and some unreasonable gap between VINs and production capabilities. Either way we should see a nice bump into 200+ post earnings. With all the pessimism in the past week, I would start buying options. But not all of them. Right before earnings will have quite a premium though
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think the same doubts were there for the Summer 2013 numbers and then Tesla opened a huge number of them in the final weeks overachieving the promised number. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the same thing happens with the Fall 2013 numbers so expect multiple openings in December happening in row. And from following the TeslaMotors FB and Twitter feeds it seems they are opening a supercharger every few days, at least they constantly alert to those events in the past weeks so I have at least the feel that it's a constant progress happening.
What I'm somewhat surprised didn't materialize is that Elon promised on Thursday to reveal the six German superchargers and the initial press release did contain an interesting image of all German superchargers by 2014, but I've not re-checked if the press release actually does have the six that are to be opened pretty much very soon or not?
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