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cfOH
Member
My best Q3 delivery guestimate is 5600 to 6400 cars. Yes, that's a pretty wide range, but even the low end is more than Tesla needs to keep above the pace of its initial guidance.
Presumably the sale of a loaner is considered a used-car sale, so there shouldn't be double-counting in the data.
Why subtract? Every loaner/showroom at this point is replacing a loaner/showroom sold, so it should be a net even except for a) new service centers and stores, and b) expanding service centers. But those two caveats can't come close to 500 more loaners than existed before.
StapleGun
Member
Thanks, looks like the total cars not registered is a very low % then.
Good point! This might let me produce even more refined results.
The key thing I still need to know is in the US what is the average time between delivery and registration.
Norse
Active Member
Norwegian "Vi menn" visited the factory in Freemont and met Patrick Jones. He said they produce 500 cars a week and they thought they would produce 23 000 this year.
He also said GEN3 is coming in 2017 and there have been talks of Model S AWD, but not atm.
http://www.tv2.no/underholdning/broom/sjokkert-over-teslafeberen-i-norge-4141354.html
He also said GEN3 is coming in 2017 and there have been talks of Model S AWD, but not atm.
http://www.tv2.no/underholdning/broom/sjokkert-over-teslafeberen-i-norge-4141354.html
Thanks for the post. I would add that '500 produced per week' might be the 'official statement' that all staff are allowed to share. I hope (and suspect) that by the end of Q3 they were more in the 600/week level.
Norse
Active Member
I hope that aswell AIMc: they do not quote anyone on the 500 a week. But Patrick Jones said 23 000 this year.
I would not expect Tesla to spoil anything to a small norwegian magasine.
I would not expect Tesla to spoil anything to a small norwegian magasine.
The loaners I've had (in California) have all had "DLR" (dealer) plates on them. These are registrations that are not attached to any particular car, and can be moved around. There's a relatively small number of these, and the number just increases slowly as the fleet grows. So I don't think there is any significant number of duplicate registrations. I think a similar situation apples in most states.
I ventured over to the Model X Tally thread and ran a few numbers.
The two closest data points for the start of Q3 are on;
14-Jun:#4076
07-Jul: #4417
If you count the days they were reported on, you get 24 days or 14.2 reservations per day. Interpolating to the start of Q3 (01-Jul) that would put the reservations number somewhere around #4317.
That last data point for Q3 is;
30-Sep: #6005
Which means that there was approximately 1,688 reservations made in Q3. I checked the spreadsheet for the various totals for EU and Canada, but there is not enough detail to link the reservation #'s with the relevant quarter dates. Looking at the overall numbers, it looks like EU and Canada add 15% to the US total and 10% of the overall total is Signatures. I used the overall to date numbers to get the blend of EU, Canada and Signatures.
So, we get combined reservations totaling;
1,688 US Production * 115% (EU and Canada) = 1,941 - (10% Signatures) = 1,746 Production reservations and 195 Signature reservations
1,746 @ $5,000 = $8,730,000
195 @ $40,000 = $7,800,000
For a total Model X reservation revenue of $16,530,000.
I hope the math is correct on this. I'm aware that it's not huge in terms of the overall quarter, but I feel like if reservations do count as revenue, it's a number worth knowing.
The two closest data points for the start of Q3 are on;
14-Jun:#4076
07-Jul: #4417
If you count the days they were reported on, you get 24 days or 14.2 reservations per day. Interpolating to the start of Q3 (01-Jul) that would put the reservations number somewhere around #4317.
That last data point for Q3 is;
30-Sep: #6005
Which means that there was approximately 1,688 reservations made in Q3. I checked the spreadsheet for the various totals for EU and Canada, but there is not enough detail to link the reservation #'s with the relevant quarter dates. Looking at the overall numbers, it looks like EU and Canada add 15% to the US total and 10% of the overall total is Signatures. I used the overall to date numbers to get the blend of EU, Canada and Signatures.
So, we get combined reservations totaling;
1,688 US Production * 115% (EU and Canada) = 1,941 - (10% Signatures) = 1,746 Production reservations and 195 Signature reservations
1,746 @ $5,000 = $8,730,000
195 @ $40,000 = $7,800,000
For a total Model X reservation revenue of $16,530,000.
I hope the math is correct on this. I'm aware that it's not huge in terms of the overall quarter, but I feel like if reservations do count as revenue, it's a number worth knowing.
it is not recognized as revenue until the X is delivered. However, that cash would flow through to the statement of Operations cash flow number.
edit: thanks for running those numbers. Amazing that X R&D is almost halfway funded through reservations. Think reservation system is large reason why more capital will not need to be raised for X and Gen III production.
Krugerrand
Meow
That's a real interesting point and something a lot of people have overlooked. And what will be the reservation amount for the GenIII - $2500? $1000?
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Might be nothing and really doesn't blow anything open, but in the press release about the german stuff there's such a little sentence:
Taking the 2012+2013 Q1-2 numbers we get 12 700 cars. I guess Tesla didn't want to give away the total number of cars, but it puts a definite baseline that they delivered more than 2300 cars in Q3
Taking the 2012+2013 Q1-2 numbers we get 12 700 cars. I guess Tesla didn't want to give away the total number of cars, but it puts a definite baseline that they delivered more than 2300 cars in Q3
marvinat0rz
Member
The Nissan Leaf is now the most-sold car in Norway in October, according to national newspaper Aftenposten. The Model S is in the 42nd place, as expected.
Norse
Active Member
This is great news IMO. Tesla just sold 53 cars the first 21 days of the month, compared to 616 in the whole september. This means they are holding back as expected! And no, demand still skyhigh. Still big waitinglist.
I wouldn't lay down $2,500 since I'd just want base+heat(pump+seats+mirrors) and I have absolutely no doubt that my low config would see me waiting at least a year to get it. But I'd be willing to lay down $1,000 to get a bleacher near the front.
Norse
Active Member
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