Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

[hershey101]

Okay, here are my two cents:
6300 cars produced, 5700 cars delivered at an ASP of $98,500 and GM of 20%

Assuming R&D and CapEx amounts to $100M you get a profit of $12.29M (excluding ZEV)
That means a profit of $.10/share...
Not terrible, but not great. Stock price after 3Q results: ~$180.... So basically I see 0% chance of recouperating my losses on the $190s and $200s..

 

[FredTMC]

At the one year anniversary of the San Diego store, today, the manager (Peter) said that the San Juan Capistrano supercharger should open in the next couple of weeks, and that the delay is due to permits and was out of Tesla's control.

excellent news. Fits my assumption

 

[Citizen-T]

In predicting the market's reaction, let's not forget that we live in a somewhat over-informed bubble here on TMC. We thought that "every knew" that Tesla would post a profit in Q1, remember? I personally was shocked by just how much Wall Street was "surprised" by the Q1 results.

 

[mershaw2001]

In predicting the market's reaction, let's not forget that we live in a somewhat over-informed bubble here on TMC. We thought that "every knew" that Tesla would post a profit in Q1, remember? I personally was shocked by just how much Wall Street was "surprised" by the Q1 results.

I'd like to volunteer my thoughts on your predictions: I don't think that cars made will have that much of an impact beyond what the run rate is next year. If we make 6500 and only guide 40k next year, that's not anything as good as 6000 and guiding 60,000 next year. Also, cash on hand (how much of the 750 million that was raised is left) will indicate whether tesla might end up needing to do a secondary, and that's a key factor (even tho elon said he wouldn't need to).

 

[Convert2013]

just an random thought.
EU car's finish work is happening in the Netherlands. Can we confirm just how much work is being done there? Are they just slapping the battery in and shipping the car out or are they doing more?

Hypothetically, if its more work then would that help speed up production even more since a % of the work is being done else where. So ramping only ~75 cars a week production through the quarter would not be as large of an accomplishment.
Even more hypothetical, what if that 570 run rate does not include cars being finished in the EU factory. Obviously this would be way off on a limb. However, the only way i can see this as possible is if the VIN data actually is correct because your talking about alot of cars. (also the great work done here shows registrations in the US not large enough to make up the gap from ~6000 cars to ~8000 for this crazy idea to be true)

i know those last hypos were tin foil hat suggestions. But i would like to get confirmation just how much is being done at the EU plant. thanks.

Valid and important question. It would not be cost effective to build them out in NUMMI and tear them down again before shipping.. but not sure how it's being handled. We all need to understand this.

- - - Updated - - -

I'd like to volunteer my thoughts on your predictions: I don't think that cars made will have that much of an impact beyond what the run rate is next year. If we make 6500 and only guide 40k next year, that's not anything as good as 6000 and guiding 60,000 next year. Also, cash on hand (how much of the 750 million that was raised is left) will indicate whether tesla might end up needing to do a secondary, and that's a key factor (even tho elon said he wouldn't need to).

Agree 100%

 

[chillong]

Valid and important question. It would not be cost effective to build them out in NUMMI and tear them down again before shipping.. but not sure how it's being handled. We all need to understand this.

i had a very similar idea. albeit very unrealistic and most probably in dreamland, but what if the EU-production is not included in this 570 number? what if they altered the production for EU cars and only produce parts now and the assembly gets done in NL? this could explain Elon's latest comment about using 1/4 of the NUMMI plant.

 

[DonPedro]

As far as I understand, the work in NL is minimal. I believe it is just slotting in the battery and maybe mounting the wheels. It's just a compliance exercise.

 

[TSLAopt]

As far as I understand, the work in NL is minimal. I believe it is just slotting in the battery and maybe mounting the wheels. It's just a compliance exercise.

yes, but perhaps legally to stay in compliance, they are not allowed to say the cars are completely built/assembled in the US that they send to Europe. Despite physically much needing to be done, that screen shot doesn't necessarily show what's physically assembled...if the legally assembled amount differs from whats physically assembled then I would suspect that screen shows the legal number.

anyone else have any thoughts? Perhaps anyone with an international law background?

even if this is the case, I assume Norway doesn't count since its not part of the EU and the official final assembly can take place in the US for the Norway cars still.

 

[DonPedro]

even if this is the case, I assume Norway doesn't count since its not part of the EU and the official final assembly can take place in the US for the Norway cars still.

Yes.

 

[techmaven]

yes, but perhaps legally to stay in compliance, they are not allowed to say the cars are completely built/assembled in the US that they send to Europe. Despite physically much needing to be done, that screen shot doesn't necessarily show what's physically assembled...if the legally assembled amount differs from whats physically assembled then I would suspect that screen shows the legal number.

I would expect that the number reflects the physical count - far harder for the system to sort out the legal count. I believe, from earlier comments, that the cars are essentially built in CA then disassembled for transport and then reassembled in NL.

The big assumption that is truly an unknown is whether or not the plant was running higher than 570/week going into the end of Q3. There could be any number of reasons why the plant is running lower this past week.

 

[fjm9898]

this could explain Elon's latest comment about using 1/4 of the NUMMI plant.

This has nothing to do with the NL plant. NUMMI is massive and they are only using 1/4 of the space, that is all. Elon making a statement saying they are only using 1/4 is just saying we can ramp up production in the current facility for some time without having to buy a second facility. They just need alot more money to buy the equipment to fill NUMMI and that wont happen until Gen3 gets ramped up. (NUMMI is said to be capable of between 300,000-500,000 car production rate a year, hence only 1/4 of the space being used for the MS right now)

 

[hershey101]

This has nothing to do with the NL plant. NUMMI is massive and they are only using 1/4 of the space, that is all. Elon making a statement saying they are only using 1/4 is just saying we can ramp up production in the current facility for some time without having to buy a second facility. They just need alot more money to buy the equipment to fill NUMMI and that wont happen until Gen3 gets ramped up. (NUMMI is said to be capable of between 300,000-500,000 car production rate a year, hence only 1/4 of the space being used for the MS right now)

There is no way they are already using 1/4th of the factory... 1/4*400,000 = 100,000 Model S/year... I don't think we will see that for 2-3 more years so...

 

[chillong]

Elon mentioned 1/4 at his recent EU tour...

 

[fjm9898]

There is no way they are already using 1/4th of the factory... 1/4*400,000 = 100,000 Model S/year... I don't think we will see that for 2-3 more years so...

I was just using the number that some one said Elon said. So how am i off base if that is what Elon said?
Also your not looking at this correctly. Just because Elon said 1/4 doesnt mean 1/4 of the production capacity. Elon meant 1/4 of the facility's space is used. Their current line could pump out 35k cars next year possible on 2 shifts. What about on 3 shifts? 50k? What is some of the facility already has equipment in place getting ready for Model X production? Model X on 3 shifts be 50k run rate? That could easily be 100k cars at 1/4 facility Space, so yes 100k on 1/4 = 400k.

Furthermore, how much extra space is being used there for other things? R&D, offices and test equipment. NUMMI was quoted up to 500k production rate but that might of purely been on how it was being used for production of vehicles only. Tesla is using it for more then just a factory.

1/4 doesnt mean they are at 1/4 possible production rate. 1/4 means they are currently utilizing 1/4 of the facility's space.

 

[hershey101]

I was just using the number that some one said Elon said. So how am i off base if that is what Elon said?
Also your not looking at this correctly. Just because Elon said 1/4 doesnt mean 1/4 of the production capacity. Elon meant 1/4 of the facility's space is used. Their current line could pump out 35k cars next year possible on 2 shifts. What about on 3 shifts? 50k? What is some of the facility already has equipment in place getting ready for Model X production? Model X on 3 shifts be 50k run rate? That could easily be 100k cars at 1/4 facility Space, so yes 100k on 1/4 = 400k.

Furthermore, how much extra space is being used there for other things? R&D, offices and test equipment. NUMMI was quoted up to 500k production rate but that might of purely been on how it was being used for production of vehicles only. Tesla is using it for more then just a factory.

1/4 doesnt mean they are at 1/4 possible production rate. 1/4 means they are currently utilizing 1/4 of the facility's space.

Okay, fair enough...

 

[Robert.Boston]

When do we start seeing Parts as a profit center? I know Elon stated that Service was supposed to be break-even, but that doesn't limit profit potential for non-warranty work, e.g. collision repair. I don't have any sense of how important this revenue source might be, but I'm sure the margins can be great.

 

[smorgasbord]

1/4 doesnt mean they are at 1/4 possible production rate. 1/4 means they are currently utilizing 1/4 of the facility's space.

Yeah, let's be real clear about what Tesla got/didn't get as part of the NUMI factory deal. They got land, some big buildings, and some equipment that was too big to be moved/sold cost-effectively. Some of that equipment, like the stamping machines, just needed new dies to be immediately useful. But mostly it was either empty space or space that Tesla emptied to make way for robots and other newer technology. So while there's plenty of space to put machines, the real effort and cost is in the machines, pipelines, and training.

 

[ggr]

Yeah, let's be real clear about what Tesla got/didn't get as part of the NUMI factory deal. They got land, some big buildings, and some equipment that was too big to be moved/sold cost-effectively. Some of that equipment, like the stamping machines, just needed new dies to be immediately useful. But mostly it was either empty space or space that Tesla emptied to make way for robots and other newer technology. So while there's plenty of space to put machines, the real effort and cost is in the machines, pipelines, and training.

Actually the stamping machines were bought cheap from somewhere near Detroit, and had to be moved and installed.

 

[ssq]

FWIW, I was told I couldn't get a S60 until Feb 1st week, they are booked/sold out until Jan 2014. I take that as a great sign for sales but not so sure how production is coping up so far..

 

[NStar]

FWIW, I was told I couldn't get a S60 until Feb 1st week, they are booked/sold out until Jan 2014. I take that as a great sign for sales but not so sure how production is coping up so far..

Great to know. I was just told that I could still get S85 this year if I ordered now. I have some concern because I see from the delivery thread that people confirmed at late Sept. are expecting delivery early Dec. this seems to suggest the number of orders placed in Oct. are less than before. Also there are posts speculating that the fire put a dent in demand in Oct. because the number of VIN's assigned this month decreased quite much. But at least we know the priority is still on S85/P85 suggesting the demand is still strong enough. Supposedly a lot of US buyers who are considering buying will want to take delivery by the end of 2013 so that they get the $75K tax credit soon instead of having to wait another year.