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Q3 2015 Report & Conference Call
- Thread starter anticitizen13.7
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here's my notes so far:
-> On Energy Storage: Sold-out all of 2016 production even of only a fraction of reservation result in orders. Dramatic increases in stationary storage production in 2016/2017. No exact estimates.
-> 15% gross margin goal for stationary storage
-> Q4: still in the peak of Model X investments. 2016 capex will be less
-> To Matias: Aspiration to be cash flow positive in q1. (no promise, of course)
-> Fleet learning: 1 million miles a day autopilot.
-> Goal to achieve 30% GM on S and X within 18 months
-> On battery cost per kwh and competition in the next 1-2 years: "No one is to be even close to us." "I’d be the first one to congratulate them."
-> 2010: 500 cars delivered per year. today: 500 cars delivered in two days.
-> On Energy Storage: Sold-out all of 2016 production even of only a fraction of reservation result in orders. Dramatic increases in stationary storage production in 2016/2017. No exact estimates.
-> 15% gross margin goal for stationary storage
-> Q4: still in the peak of Model X investments. 2016 capex will be less
-> To Matias: Aspiration to be cash flow positive in q1. (no promise, of course)
-> Fleet learning: 1 million miles a day autopilot.
-> Goal to achieve 30% GM on S and X within 18 months
-> On battery cost per kwh and competition in the next 1-2 years: "No one is to be even close to us." "I’d be the first one to congratulate them."
-> 2010: 500 cars delivered per year. today: 500 cars delivered in two days.
Q3 2015 Report & Conference Call
Elon: full autonomous driving in all new cars in 15-20 years, and Tesla "much sooner". And in the future anyone who has a car that is not capable of full autonomous driving will have it for sentimental reasons. "It will be like owning a horse."
I literally LOL. But I think he's right.
Elon: full autonomous driving in all new cars in 15-20 years, and Tesla "much sooner". And in the future anyone who has a car that is not capable of full autonomous driving will have it for sentimental reasons. "It will be like owning a horse."
I literally LOL. But I think he's right.
My highlights from the call:
New CFO and new Global Sales and Service announced.
Elon is quite confident that they will hit several hundreds of Model X manufactured per week by end of this year. A bunch of little issues still being worked out - door seals, the second row seats are still a challenge, but not a gating factor. Total factory output (Model S and X) of 1600 - 1800 per week range in Q1 is achievable, will depend on economy (sales). Tesla is now making their own seats.
It is an aspiration, not a promise, that Tesla will be cashflow positive in Q1.
Tesla is thinking about doing an automated UBER like service, but still is early stages of thinking about it.
Will put restrictions on AutoPilot use in the future to stop people from doing stupid things with it.
Elon continues to believe they have a significant lead in battery costs.
Autopilot should feel quite refined within a few months.
A question was asked about mapping and Autopilot and Elon interestingly said that he won't address potential future product announcements during quarterly calls.
Tesla energy products being manufactured in gigafactory right now. Cells to be produced there in second half 2016.
Post Model 3, they should be able to bring out new cars/vehicles faster. Currently, once a car is designed, it takes Tesla 2 years to start manufacturing. They want to reduce that time (most likely through acquisitions to speed manufacturing).
New CFO and new Global Sales and Service announced.
Elon is quite confident that they will hit several hundreds of Model X manufactured per week by end of this year. A bunch of little issues still being worked out - door seals, the second row seats are still a challenge, but not a gating factor. Total factory output (Model S and X) of 1600 - 1800 per week range in Q1 is achievable, will depend on economy (sales). Tesla is now making their own seats.
It is an aspiration, not a promise, that Tesla will be cashflow positive in Q1.
Tesla is thinking about doing an automated UBER like service, but still is early stages of thinking about it.
Will put restrictions on AutoPilot use in the future to stop people from doing stupid things with it.
Elon continues to believe they have a significant lead in battery costs.
Autopilot should feel quite refined within a few months.
A question was asked about mapping and Autopilot and Elon interestingly said that he won't address potential future product announcements during quarterly calls.
Tesla energy products being manufactured in gigafactory right now. Cells to be produced there in second half 2016.
Post Model 3, they should be able to bring out new cars/vehicles faster. Currently, once a car is designed, it takes Tesla 2 years to start manufacturing. They want to reduce that time (most likely through acquisitions to speed manufacturing).
cgiGuy
Active Member
Who cares.. we need no more stupid events with autopilot or the government will be the one placing the restrictions on us.
jhm
Well-Known Member
as I heard it, at the very end of the call, in answer to Ben Kallo, Elon's best estimate is that Model S global annual sales will be close to 100K when markets mature and the X will be similar. he did emphasize that this will take time, it is something of a guess, but it was quite nice to hear.
So GM with supplier LG Chem isn't even close? As a reminder:
I would like to see how GM/LG are so far off in 2016, especially since the Gigafactory won't start EV cell production before 2017.
I wasn't expecting much from this quarter's report and Conference Call, and I was completely wrong. It's not often that I am elated to be completely wrong :biggrin:
My concerns about meeting the 50k guidance and the Model X ramp are mostly relieved at this point. Of course, Tesla still has to deliver the goods this quarter, but I trust that they have taken the necessary steps to resolve supply chain issues (the 2nd row seats, in particular). This report couldn't have come at a better time.
My concerns about meeting the 50k guidance and the Model X ramp are mostly relieved at this point. Of course, Tesla still has to deliver the goods this quarter, but I trust that they have taken the necessary steps to resolve supply chain issues (the 2nd row seats, in particular). This report couldn't have come at a better time.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Today TACC was not available to me. My daily commute is all slow and go surface streets. I explicitly bought this car to aid me with this commute and paid good money for AP. I will take my car to the service center to find out what's going on. If Tesla has taken AP from me, I will be quite pissed.
Is it Jon McNeill, President of Global Sales & Service?
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The honeymoon is over :*
As a reminder: all of the electronics and electrics in the Bolt are made by LG, and the Bolt is a limited run vehicle, which means that the __cell__ pricing doesn't mean much. We don't know how large the battery will be, but even a cross-subsidy deal of $50/kWh would only be $3k for a 60kWh vehicle, and we should expect less than 60kWh to be used.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So you are suggesting that the $145/kWh price from LG is a cross-subsidized price based on packaging in other components? I just want to make sure I understand what you're saying.
chickensevil
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I hope it is just an issue with my car. Sometimes it becomes unavailable in heavy rain such as last night.
I've been using TACC on my commute since I got the car in March. And it just feels wrong not to have it available. I was just getting hooked on Autosteering too. I guess I'm going through AP withdrawl.
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