Question about reservation delivery estimates by location...

[11thIndian]

Hey there. This is (mostly) a theoretical question- as I've got a PHEV and 1 year into a 4 year lease. But just curious if anyone can shed some light on this scenario.

I never put down a reservation for Model 3, with plans to reserve a Model Y when they become available. Here in Canada, if I reserved a Model 3 today, they're saying 12-18 months before I might expect delivery.

Now, lets say that there was the possibility I was moving to the Bay area. So if I put down a reservation right at Tesla's doorstep, and I'm not a current Tesla owner, what's the delivery time looking like? Considering I'm theoretically at the back of the total reservation line, but in the first region for rollout.

Can anyone in the CA area look to see what the website is estimating?

Thanks!

 

[RenMan68]

I suspect that being at the end of the line would carry more weight than Bay area in your case. Thus, the 12 month-ish estimate is probably more likely.

 

[dsvick]

I agree with @RenMan68 you'd most likely be at the end of the line. The initial roll out by geographic area likely won't last much into the ramp up as they'll quickly reach the max number of deliveries that can be handled by any region. You'd probably be looking at 12 months or more, depending on the speed of the ramp up.

 

[11thIndian]

Thanks. You guys are probably right. Though “if” I were down for an interview, I “might” pop into a showroom and see what they say about new reservations on first production cars.

Just in case.

 

[ElecFan]

Hey there. This is (mostly) a theoretical question- as I've got a PHEV and 1 year into a 4 year lease. But just curious if anyone can shed some light on this scenario.

I never put down a reservation for Model 3, with plans to reserve a Model Y when they become available. Here in Canada, if I reserved a Model 3 today, they're saying 12-18 months before I might expect delivery.

Now, lets say that there was the possibility I was moving to the Bay area. So if I put down a reservation right at Tesla's doorstep, and I'm not a current Tesla owner, what's the delivery time looking like? Considering I'm theoretically at the back of the total reservation line, but in the first region for rollout.

Can anyone in the CA area look to see what the website is estimating?

Thanks!

You can look here: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

 

[daniel]

You can look here: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

Anybody have any opinions on how accurate that is? I gather it's just some guy who built the spreadsheet from, I don't know, guesswork? I'm an owner in WA and reserved on Day 2, so I'm really wondering when they're going to start delivering outside of CA. There's bound to be a lot of Day 1 owners here in WA, and they'll all be ahead of me. And maybe they'll prioritize people who are close enough to a delivery center to pick up their cars in person? I don't really feel like driving a brand-new car over the mountain passes from Seattle in winter.

So, any ideas about when they'll start going outside of CA?

The estimator in the link above tells me very early February for mine. So a month from now. My MyTesla estimate window is December - February.

 

[Chris350]

Based on the info released today... I would say that ain't gonna happen...

 

[daniel]

Well, I'm disappointed, but I'd still prefer that they focus on getting the quality right, rather than on ramping up production faster than is consistent with top quality. I just don't think it's the best idea to fill every single CA order before moving on to other states. Getting the Model 3 out over the rest of the country will increase its exposure. They should be especially concerned to get a few into Spokane, because, well, they just should. In the end, I trust Tesla more than GM. Well, I trust GM about as far as I can throw a hippopotamus.

In the long run, I think getting the Model 3 right is more important for Tesla's long-term success than getting it out fast. In a couple of years nobody will remember that it took them a year longer than expected to ramp up production, but if the car is less than stellar it will stick with them for a decade.

 

[11thIndian]

It's good progress, but sadly continues to be a slower ramp than they anticipated. The shorts are having a field day. Jerks!

My selfish Model 3 cue-jumping wishes aside, I wonder what effect this will have on Model Y unveiling/reservation plans. It's the promise of that vehicle that really kept me from dropping a deposit on the 3 so many years ago.

Lastly, I really wonder if the Model X will be looked back on as a unfortunate diversion. If Tesla had gone from Model S to Model 3, think how far they could have come by now, and think how far ahead of the competition they'd be.

 

[rsbell]

I just don't think it's the best idea to fill every single CA order before moving on to other states.

As a California line waiter, I respectfully disagree.

 

[dsvick]

I just don't think it's the best idea to fill every single CA order before moving on to other states.

They likely won't do that. If they can maintain 1,000 cars a week, plus model S and X sales they will quickly exceed the delivery capacity of the California delivery centers. I'd expect them to start moving out of CA sooner rather than later.

The shorts are having a field day.

I don't know that I'd call a less than 1% drop (as of 9:30 EST) a "field day".

 

[evJOULE]

You can look here: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

Wow that was easy. The estimator gives me June 22 as a delivery, which matches the info I received from Tesla, Mid 2018

 

[lasdoug]

You can look here: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

DAMN- That Estimator is "Right On"

 

[evJOULE]

DAMN- That Estimator is "Right On"

Thats what I said

 

[John Beans]

Now, lets say that there was the possibility I was moving to the Bay area. So if I put down a reservation right at Tesla's doorstep, and I'm not a current Tesla owner, what's the delivery time looking like? Considering I'm theoretically at the back of the total reservation line, but in the first region for rollout.

Thanks!

A more sure-fire strategy would be to find a screaming good deal on a used CPO Tesla S, buy it, reserve a Model 3, and sell the S (hopefully not at much of a loss, assuming you got a great deal to start with). Once an owner, always an owner. And some owners have jumped over lots of people in line when they ordered their first Model 3.

 

[codeblue309]

A more sure-fire strategy would be to find a screaming good deal on a used CPO Tesla S, buy it, reserve a Model 3, and sell the S (hopefully not at much of a loss, assuming you got a great deal to start with). Once an owner, always an owner. And some owners have jumped over lots of people in line when they ordered their first Model 3.

I did, unknowingly! I loved the P85 but Lack of AP forced me to Model 3.

 

[11thIndian]

A more sure-fire strategy would be to find a screaming good deal on a used CPO Tesla S, buy it, reserve a Model 3, and sell the S (hopefully not at much of a loss, assuming you got a great deal to start with). Once an owner, always an owner. And some owners have jumped over lots of people in line when they ordered their first Model 3.

I have seriously considered this. However, I'm only 1 year into a 4 year lease on my Audi A3 e-tron (If I stayed in Canada I thought it was a safe bet that I wouldn't get a MY until Summer of '21). And getting out at this stage would probably cost me too much (Depreciation plus having to pay back the $8100 Ontario tax credit). Good news is the 47km I get out of the A3 will get me a lot farther in the Bay area. and looks like I'd have charging at work too.

There's a lot of Teslas at my potential employer, so if in two years I get to know some people well- perhaps I could use their ownership to put down my Model Y reservation.

People have done that with the 3, right?

 

[11thIndian]

Hey Everyone. Thanks for participating in this strange scenario. This week I should be finding out if I'm relocating to the bay area from Ontario.

With the recent reduction in delivery estimates (down to 4-6 months for current production model), I'm once again considering putting down a reservation. The A3 e-tron we have we're going to have to buy out to get it on state plates. My wife may take over this car and I may look to buy something else. So either used S (prob P85) or a current build Model 3- long range battery is a must. I could take or leave the premium interior, but unfortunately that's not an option at this point. Oh well.

A used S would likely have the advantage of free supercharging, which would be great for touring around our new home state.

But Model 3 is current tech and prob more my size.

Anyway, my primary question is, I'm not likely to be down there for at least a month. Can I put in a reservation FOR California from Ontario once I know it's going to happen? Or can I switch the location of my reservation once I move?

Thanks all.