Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

[Starway2001]

So I've been at 10/27-11/24 for several weeks now. A 28-day window for an order that briefly had a VIN in Sept. Seems kinda wide for someone they almost built the car for, but anyway. Probably the oldest Performance order in here.

I thought it would be fun to guess how that EDD will change Wednesday.

1) Pushes way out into November keeping a 20-28 day (the never ending push)?
2) Pushes into early November but narrows to 10-days?
3) Pushes into a generic "December"?
4) Receives a VIN before Wednesday with a modified 3-day window?

 

[RyStar]

I still can't believe there hasn't been more VIN action in here.

 

[Starway2001]

I still can't believe there hasn't been more VIN action in here.

Being teased with a build and then simply tossed to the back of the line is piss poor treatment for someone spending $70K. Honestly, I'm not sure I'll ever get over this because this is different than consequence of parts shortages. October builds get VINs, but your oldest orders get neglected?

 

[DVinVA]

Being teased with a build and then simply tossed to the back of the line is piss poor treatment for someone spending $70K. Honestly, I'm not sure I'll ever get over this because this is different than consequence of parts shortages. October builds get VINs, but your oldest orders get neglected?

Frustrated as well. Who is getting a VIN though? Some that ordered in October have 'earlier' EDD than me right now, but I think it's a tease. There should be zero confidence in an EDD unless you have the VIN.

 

[Lucid Lycan]

So I've been at 10/27-11/24 for several weeks now. A 28-day window for an order that briefly had a VIN in Sept. Seems kinda wide for someone they almost built the car for, but anyway. Probably the oldest Performance order in here.

I thought it would be fun to guess how that EDD will change Wednesday.

1) Pushes way out into November keeping a 20-28 day (the never ending push)?
2) Pushes into early November but narrows to 10-days?
3) Pushes into a generic "December"?
4) Receives a VIN before Wednesday with a modified 3-day window?

So I found this information on Tesla Manufacturing cycles and shipping waves:
------

Quarterly manufacturing cycle​

Tesla attempts to sell all inventory every quarter and have as few cars in transit as possible. Given the geographical spread of the factories, this typically means cars destined for European/remote regions are built in the first part of a quarter and shipped to the destination and delivered to customers in the last 5 weeks of the quarter. Nearer markets to the factories have inventory built after this inventory and are shipped and delivered within a few weeks, also in the last 5 weeks of the quarter. As a result, the majority of Tesla inventory is delivered in the last 5-6 weeks of any quarter irrespective of when it was ordered.
------
This smells correct to me in terms of business and financial thinking; reduce inventory carrying costs between quarters, as it makes the quarterly ends look much better.

The result for all of us is that it's probably unlikely for us to see deliveries in the first month of a quarter..... Jan / Apr / July / Oct
...and that back half of the quarter is more likely. (Feb-Mar / May-Jun / Aug-Sept / Nov-Dec)

I'm guessing we won't see VINs in volume for a few more weeks when they start planning deliveries for Mid-Nov to end of quarter.

What I am wondering is with the number of holidays in Q4 (Thanksgiving (USA) and Solstice ;-) and the fact that many businesses loose about 1-2 weeks of work around those holidays, if they won't try to pull things forward a bit. That might mean that early Nov Deliveries should start receiving VINs in the next week or so.

 

[Starway2001]

So I found this information on Tesla Manufacturing cycles and shipping waves:
------

Quarterly manufacturing cycle​

Tesla attempts to sell all inventory every quarter and have as few cars in transit as possible. Given the geographical spread of the factories, this typically means cars destined for European/remote regions are built in the first part of a quarter and shipped to the destination and delivered to customers in the last 5 weeks of the quarter. Nearer markets to the factories have inventory built after this inventory and are shipped and delivered within a few weeks, also in the last 5 weeks of the quarter. As a result, the majority of Tesla inventory is delivered in the last 5-6 weeks of any quarter irrespective of when it was ordered.
------
This smells correct to me in terms of business and financial thinking; reduce inventory carrying costs between quarters, as it makes the quarterly ends look much better.

The result for all of us is that it's probably unlikely for us to see deliveries in the first month of a quarter..... Jan / Apr / July / Oct
...and that back half of the quarter is more likely. (Feb-Mar / May-Jun / Aug-Sept / Nov-Dec)

I'm guessing we won't see VINs in volume for a few more weeks when they start planning deliveries for Mid-Nov to end of quarter.

What I am wondering is with the number of holidays in Q4 (Thanksgiving (USA) and Solstice ;-) and the fact that many businesses loose about 1-2 weeks of work around those holidays, if they won't try to pull things forward a bit. That might mean that early Nov Deliveries should start receiving VINs in the next week or so.

So, basically, if they didn't squeeze you at the end of September, and you're in CA, then you're f***** for an entire quarter.

Because this a lottery and not a real "line" this could theoretically happen yet again this quarter, too. The big "end of December" push!!!! And what if your Bingo numbers don't come out of the hopper in December? March? June?

 

[RyStar]

Being teased with a build and then simply tossed to the back of the line is piss poor treatment for someone spending $70K. Honestly, I'm not sure I'll ever get over this because this is different than consequence of parts shortages. October builds get VINs, but your oldest orders get neglected?

You need to call and see if they can escalate your issue to a manager for them to review. Seriously

 

[Lucid Lycan]

So, basically, if they didn't squeeze you at the end of September, and you're in CA, then you're f***** for an entire quarter.

Because this a lottery and not a real "line" this could theoretically happen yet again this quarter, too. The big "end of December" push!!!! And what if your Bingo numbers don't come out of the hopper in December? March? June?

My sense is that that if you don't make a quarter end push (Which you appear not to have the last quarter) you will likely get a push toward the 2nd half of the following quarter due to how they prioritize shipping and attempt to clear inventory.

I'm guessing you're going to be the first to get a MYP VIN of the group of us in CA on #teamRedWhite given your order date.

 

[Tabor]

If I’m not mistaken, Elon recently said they’re trying to eliminate the EOQ push and smooth delivery numbers. Assume it has to do with new factories coming, especially Berlin…But, yet to be seen.

But yeah, it’s no secret that they focus on remote destinations first. When we got our LR3 in 2020 we were aware of this and got a mid Sept Delivery on a July order.

 

[doozenberg]

10/4/21 order date LR AWD Midnight Silver black interior with tow hitch. This was from a Held pre-order from way back on 10/28/2020 to lock in cheaper $8k FSD pricing back the.

First estimates said Feb-Mar, then earlier this AM Mar-Apr.

Now it just says October. Wtf is going on. Is this a result of the Hertz deal?

 

[Tqdrivenws6]

I still can't believe there hasn't been more VIN action in here.

I'm pretty sure they are just experiencing downtime in the line switching the machine that stamps the VIN from the letter M to N.

 

[Jbapckfan]

If I’m not mistaken, Elon recently said they’re trying to eliminate the EOQ push and smooth delivery numbers. But, yet to be seen.

But yeah, it’s no secret that they focus on remote destinations first. When we got our LR3 in 2020 we were aware of this and good a mid Sept Delivery on a July order.

If pushing increases numbers without sacrificing quality they should always push. If pushing sacrifices quality they should never push. If they want to increase numbers then stop letting people build and just place them on the lot as fast as they can make a quality product.

 

[Lucid Lycan]

10/4/21 order date LR AWD Midnight Silver black interior with tow hitch. This was from a Held pre-order from way back on 10/28/2020 to lock in cheaper $8k FSD pricing back the.

First estimates said Feb-Mar, then earlier this AM Mar-Apr.

Now it just says October. Wtf is going on. Is this a result of the Hertz deal?

This is an MYP thread. Just be cautious about comparisons with what you see here as MYP tend to be prioritized.

 

[doozenberg]

This is an MYP thread. Just be cautious about comparisons with what you see here as MYP tend to be prioritized.

My bad. Oversight

 

[Montucky]

Our cars are twins, the narrowed EDD windows are about 1.5 weeks different, I wonder if the cars will be built together or not. My OD was 10/7.

Could be! I read an article over the weekend about a scarcity of blue paint, and it made me wonder is that's impacting the blue builds... although the article was talking about house paints so probably not the same problems (I hope!) Lets hope we get a VIN this week maybe?

 

[Viv1984]

My SA told me a few weeks ago that I should be getting my car first week of November (was worried because I'm going to be out of town this most of this week and most of the week after). That was when my EDD was October 23-mid November. Since then, my EDD has been pushed out to Nov 9 - Dec 7, which makes me think not next week. Hopefully, they vote on the EV bill and if it passes, Tesla gives us an incentive to take delivery this quarter (reduced FSD maybe?). That and a lot of people will probably delay their orders to next year, so there should be more cars available.

 

[Starway2001]

My sense is that that if you don't make a quarter end push (Which you appear not to have the last quarter) you will likely get a push toward the 2nd half of the following quarter due to how they prioritize shipping and attempt to clear inventory.

I'm guessing you're going to be the first to get a MYP VIN of the group of us in CA on #teamRedWhite given your order date.

I would like to think this too, but more and more I think I've become that "cautionary tale"

 

[gabesir]

Just spoke to my SA, he thinks my delivery wont be until Dec. =/ , I know he did not wanted to give any false promised dates but early Dec is what he is estimating.

 

[Tqdrivenws6]

Just spoke to my SA, he thinks my delivery wont be until Dec. =/ , I know he did not wanted to give any false promised dates but early Dec is what he is estimating.

What SC? I'm taking delivery (again) at Maplewood.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Man, seeing all these October order dates get earlier EDD's than me...O/D 9/19 still holding strong at 11/28-12/26

But I am happy for you guys! We'll all make it eventually