Growing pangs. Ordered a Model X on 2/6/21, LR, Blue, 5 seater. Early on, I asked what the trade in value would be for my 90DMX, Tesla offered $54,000. The rep told me that I wouldn't have to turn it in before taking delivery because "we don't want you to be without a car." Talked it over with my financial planner and he suggested I go ahead and sell it if I could get a better price and share SO's car for a couple of months. With COVID, we weren't running around much, so why not. At the time, I was expecting delivery in April. I did shop around a little, found a better offer and sold the MX. Allowing for Elon Time, I figured I would get it around June. I made the decision to go ahead and sell, that's on me. I fault Elon for his overly optimistic declarations of when deliveries would start. We don't call it Elon Time for nothing.
Eight months later, the frustration is growing. What's taking so damned long? However, if you take a step back for more of drone's eye view, it's a little more palatable. Ford Motor Company operates 8 assembly plants in the U.S., a couple more in Mexico, 1-2 in Canada, didn't check the actual number for Canada or Mexico. Tesla has one. Fremont is the third largest assembly plant of any automaker in the U.S. in terms of floor space. Kia's in West Point, GA and Toyota's Georgetown, KY plant are the two larger ones.
Next, look at what's happening in auto sales. The chip shortage crap is just that, it ain't all that. Auto sales peaked in the U.S. in 2016 @ 18 million units. Ford alone delivered, 6.65 million vehicles in 2016, down to 4.2 million in 2020. This year total ICE sales are on track to hit 12 million units. Globally, Tesla will deliver ~900k vehicles. Globally, not just in North America, Tesla owns two vehicle production plants, Fremont and Shanghai. Berlin and Texas, the next two, will start production any day. In 2022, Tesla will deliver ~2 million vehicles from those four plants, eventually ramping up to 6 million in 2-3 years. Despite chip/parts shortages, vertically integrated Tesla will deliver 900k vehicles in 2021. Ford, VW, GM, all of them will not come close to maxing out capacity. PEOPLE HAVE STOPPED BUYING THEIR CARS. The Osborne Effect has taken hold (i.e. holding off a purchase now to await a better product coming soon).
What we have here is the next phase of the switch to EVs. We've gone through the Innovator and Early Adopter phase and are transitioning to Early Majority. Tesla is struggling to keep up with exploding demand. IMO, they were caught flat footed by demand for the Refresh S/X. Orders are far in excess of what they probably expected due to slowly declining sales for S/X in recent years. They didn't expect this. What was 100k orders annually that had fallen to 80k and they expected to go back to 100k or thereabouts with the Refresh. No way to know, but I bet their order book is much bigger than 100k. Look at the timelines for people ordering today. Order your S/X today and it will be in your driveway... next September.
Extremely frustrating for us Innovators and Early Adopters. Seems to be most people on this forum are in those categories. We were accustomed to 2-3 month waits. But not this. IOW, what we have here is the soon to be world's largest vehicle OEM struggling to ramp up production to meet exploding demand with us longtime customers/admirers caught up in the maelstrom when we think we shouldn't be.
Yeah, Tesla needs to communicate better, mystery does not help customer relations. Yeah, Tesla shouldn't keep its SA's in the dark as much as they do. Yeah, the time to tinker with assembly lines is before you announce a delivery timeline. Yeah, raising prices just 'cause you can (and to cover increased materials costs) looks arrogant and ugly.
But that's what happens. I'm pulling out a Zen text or something to see if I can meditate my way to a little peace of mind over this.