Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[pdx]

Did they act like you would get the plaid by the end of the year if you did switch?

Yes. He said before end of year, likely December.

 

[TWENT2]

Lol where does it say that?

I don't know. I got an email when they changed it. I think originally, my SA told me after I ordered in Feb.

The fact that some us with very early 7 seat or 5 seat orders like mine from 2020 and not received a call is odd and somewhat telling. This means they feel these orders may come sooner and so no point to covert them over???? Or it’s all Tesla randomness as is probably the case.

They have some random list they're pulling from. They said that order date is not the top requirement for list placement.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Yup. Here's the one I found: https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=53268&flag=1

So, that is the Model S plaid. The following is all factual (but without references because I don’t have time to locate and this is just a chat not a formal presentation, but if you’re in the know, you know), until my final hypothesis which is just that: conjecture.
1) I believe the original plan for the plaid was to go with 4680s. The “18650s in Plaids” fact was established early on, immediately when the first plaid (weird, ? rolling, ?? cause) fire occurred.
2) Tesla production lines aren’t static like traditional auto manufacturers. They make somewhere around 20 physical advancements/changes every week.
3) 4680s unsurprisingly have had technical challenges to shift from lab to mass production. But Kato continues to innovate and is now mass producing.
4) Tesla gets rid of old tech before introducing the new. I read this all over the 6-seater push.
5) Tesla expects to be using 4680s in production vehicles in early 2022.
6) Tesla will be using 4680s in all its vehicles as soon as it can. The tech is greatly superior and advances Tesla’s prime directive. Faster recharging, lower cost, better longevity, etc.
7) Elon has repeatedly affirmed that the Model S *and X* will always get the most advanced tech first, *and* have the most range.

Hypothesis: starting early 2022 Model S and X lines will pivot to 4680 structural packs.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

So, that is the Model S plaid. The following is all factual (but without references because I don’t have time to locate and this is just a chat not a formal presentation, but if you’re in the know, you know), until my final hypothesis which is just that: conjecture.
1) I believe the original plan for the plaid was to go with 4680s. The “18650s in Plaids” fact was established early on, immediately when the first plaid (weird, ? rolling, ?? cause) fire occurred.
2) Tesla production lines aren’t static like traditional auto manufacturers. They make somewhere around 20 physical advancements/changes every week.
3) 4680s unsurprisingly have had technical challenges to shift from lab to mass production. But Kato continues to innovate and is now mass producing.
4) Tesla gets rid of old tech before introducing the new.
5) Tesla expects to be using 4680s in production vehicles in early 2022.
6) Tesla will be using 4680s in all its vehicles as soon as it can. The tech is greatly superior and advances Tesla’s prime directive. Faster recharging, lower cost, better longevity, etc.
7) Elon has repeatedly affirmed that the Model S *and X* will always get the most advanced tech first, *and* have the most range.

Hypothesis: starting early 2022 Model S and X lines will pivot to 4680 structural packs.

I agree with most points, but S and X are not on high priority for 4680s. Remember they have to ramp Y for a year, and then move over to CT, which alone will take up all of '22's (and a good amount of '23's) battery supply. After CT they have to launch Roadster and the $25k car, and then they could do a 4680 S and X. So I think at the earliest that we could see a 4680 Plaid is maybe mid to late '23 up to '26 or '27. Remember this is essentially a new generation of 18650s, so they have a looooong way to go in their life. Both Panasonic and Tesla need to get their investment back from this, so they will keep the 18650s around for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if eventual 18650s could get to 500+ miles of range alone (there's rumors of a 10% to 15% range increase via SW as they sit right now with no changes), before opening the gates to the 4680s. In fact, the amount of redesigning and retooling required to fit both a cast front and rear along with the structural pack may dictate a new generation of S and X when they do it.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

I agree with most points, but S and X are nowhere near on the priority for 4680s. Remember they have to ramp Y for a year, and then shift over to CT, which alone will take up all of '22's (and a good amount of '23's) battery supply. After CT they have to launch Roadster and the $25k car, and then they could do a 4680 S and X. So I think at the earliest that we could see a 4680 Plaid is maybe mid to late '23 up to '26 or '27. Remember this is essentially a new generation of 18650s, so they have a looooong way to go in their life. Both Panasonic and Tesla need to get their investment back from this, so they will keep the 18650s around for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if eventual 18650s could get to 500+ miles of range alone, before opening the gates to the 4680s. In fact, the amount of redesigning and retooling required to fit both a cast front and rear along with the structural pack may dictate a next generation of S and X when they do it

Good thoughts, but to counter: Elon isn’t beholden to ANYTHING but first principles. As an example literally off the top of my head, Elon will dump a massive engineering investment in carbon fiber rockets and pivot in a week to stainless steel.

Re: the Model X and S are small beans, that’s exactly WHY they are perfect to start production 4680 vehicles. It’s like a trial run before going full mass 500K vehicle production.

Re: but the engineering required, Musk or somebody said Tesla literally had a couple fully developed engineering designs for the the Refresh vehicles, including structural 4680 packs, but a backup plan if they couldn’t work out the technical Kato scaling issues.

So, touché? I still posit 4680s in Refresh X and S early 2022.

And I hate to say it, but I’m willing to wait until the 4680s are in. Or to quote one of the few TV shows I’ll even watch, if not, “I’m out.”
Or at least holding off on delivery for as long as it takes.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Good thoughts, but to counter: Elon isn’t beholden to ANYTHING but first principles. As an example literally off the top of my head, Elon will dump a massive engineering investment in carbon fiber rockets and pivot in a week to stainless steel.

Re: the Model X and S are small beans, that’s exactly WHY they are perfect. It’s like a trial run before going full mass 500K vehicle production.

Re: but the engineering required, Musk or somebody said Tesla literally had a couple fully developed engineering designs for the the Refresh vehicles, including structural 4680 packs, but a backup plan if they couldn’t work out the technical Kato scaling issues.

So, touché? I still posit 4680s in Refresh X and S early 2022.

And I hate to say it, but I’m willing to wait until the 4680s are in. Or to quote one of the few TV shows I’ll even watch, if not, “I’m out.”
Or at least holding off on delivery for as long as it takes.

Oh I agree with the small run thing! It's just they have iterated countless times that it will be Y and CT first, and everything after. There are only so many batteries, and the main limiting factor for EVs is not demand or price, but battery production. After everything is running, sure they could do a 4680 S and X, but I wouldn't bet on it being too soon. I used to have this same hypothesis, but after seeing the amount of changes and hard work put into the new S and X packs, I'm very sure they need their investments filled. This new pack isn't a nudge for the 18650s, it's a new breath of life entirely. The new packs are completely different, and a marvel in battery engineering themselves.

 

[zk19]

Really interesting if this 4680 thing coming soon really happens. I know we can’t always wait for better tech, but it would suck after waiting this long to get an X in Dec-Jan and then they turn around use newer battery tech a month later. I know this is what we signed up for, but I’d still be pissed. Now I don’t know if I want my delivery delayed or not..

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Woah another round of price increases:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451725128757305344

 

[ryguyc]

Woah another round of price increases:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451725128757305344

I love when i just keep making money while I wait for my car

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Really interesting if this 4680 thing coming soon really happens. I know we can’t always wait for better tech, but it would suck after waiting this long to get an X in Dec-Jan and then they turn around use newer battery tech a month later. I know this is what we signed up for, but I’d still be pissed. Now I don’t know if I want my delivery delayed or not..

Sometimes Tesla doesn’t make a public commentary until [whatever] has been going on for a while. That minimizes the earlier buyer regret.

Like, idk, the supposed 40kWh model S packs actually being 60 kWh.

ALSO: that’s why they are pushing the six seaters. It’s the most premium X so it will still have that psychological premium glow to those who accepted it. Like “yeah, I didn’t get the 4680s but whatever, I got an incredibly nice vehicle.”

Also bear in mind that the change is GOING to happen at some point. Like, it is stepwise. No getting around it.

 

[TJPDX]

Woah another round of price increases:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451725128757305344

Hot damn, starting to think it might be worth switching to the 6 seater at this point if the call comes! maybe even sneak in a midnight silver

 

[Maybe22]

So, that is the Model S plaid. The following is all factual (but without references because I don’t have time to locate and this is just a chat not a formal presentation, but if you’re in the know, you know), until my final hypothesis which is just that: conjecture.
1) I believe the original plan for the plaid was to go with 4680s. The “18650s in Plaids” fact was established early on, immediately when the first plaid (weird, ? rolling, ?? cause) fire occurred.
2) Tesla production lines aren’t static like traditional auto manufacturers. They make somewhere around 20 physical advancements/changes every week.
3) 4680s unsurprisingly have had technical challenges to shift from lab to mass production. But Kato continues to innovate and is now mass producing.
4) Tesla gets rid of old tech before introducing the new. I read this all over the 6-seater push.
5) Tesla expects to be using 4680s in production vehicles in early 2022.
6) Tesla will be using 4680s in all its vehicles as soon as it can. The tech is greatly superior and advances Tesla’s prime directive. Faster recharging, lower cost, better longevity, etc.
7) Elon has repeatedly affirmed that the Model S *and X* will always get the most advanced tech first, *and* have the most range.

Hypothesis: starting early 2022 Model S and X lines will pivot to 4680 structural packs.

No chance whatsoever. There is tremendous cost in restarting a line as is now occurring to get the X and S up and running again. In addition they have a year back log to work through. Switching over to a structural pack would be an even bigger manufacturing shift then what they are going through now. There is no way they are going to shut the line down again for this until they largely work off the backlog, and then extend current technology to larger packs, etc. 4680’s are likely 2 yrs plus for model X but no way it’s happening within the next year… IMHO.

 

[anthonyj]

No chance whatsoever. There is tremendous cost in restarting a line as is now occurring to get the X and S up and running again. In addition they have a year back log to work through. Switching over to a structural pack would be an even bigger manufacturing shift then what they are going through now. There is no way they are going to shut the line down again for this until they largely work off the backlog, and then extend current technology to larger packs, etc. 4680’s are likely 2 yrs plus for model X but no way it’s happening within the next year… IMHO.

Dude. What line? There is no line running. They make 5 Xs a year

 

[TrevTremaine]

Dude. What line? There is no line running. They make 5 Xs a year

It's only been 10 months. Obviously they're going to ramp up enough in the next couple of months to make a record number of Xs before the year is out.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Really interesting if this 4680 thing coming soon really happens. I know we can’t always wait for better tech, but it would suck after waiting this long to get an X in Dec-Jan and then they turn around use newer battery tech a month later. I know this is what we signed up for, but I’d still be pissed. Now I don’t know if I want my delivery delayed or not..

I would ask yourself, do you want to wait an indefinite length of time for a future tech (there’s no freaking guarantee of when 4680 structural pack usage will start), or do you just want an awesome vehicle as soon as you can?

That tells you if you should just go ahead and take delivery (and to be fair we’ve all ALREADY waited a lot) or wait and miss out on living with and loving a Tesla.

Are you the type who will wait until the iPhone 16 because of possible low earth satellite communication capacity?

 

[ironwill96]

It is strange though that if they are cell constrained with 4680s they wouldn’t have used them in lower volume S and X. It’s frustrating the most expensive products don’t get the best tech.

This is one thing Tesla fails at a lot - model Y and even the 3 keep getting better redesigns and higher tech things added while being high volume lower cost vehicles. This is opposite of how other auto mfrers work.

Best guess as others have said is it isn’t the 4680s themselves that would prevent it, but the structural battery pack that constitutes a whole redesign of the vehicle. I too think no 4680 in S and X until 2023-2024. It will be in the Y next year and then cybertrucks.

 

[jeremy4m]

Had a test drive of the Model Y at Milford CT, and had a chat with the staff there. They delivered a Plaid MX 6 seater recently. That order was placed 10/2020. I didn't ask too much detail, so that's all I learned.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

This is an EXTREME example of “One marshmallow now, or two later?”

Except, it’s more like, one marshmallow after waiting a year or more, or 2 marshmallows in… well nobody knows how long.

 

[Yosry]

With X price increase, was that high demand , high cost, or just tesla being greedy?

 

[KidsEyeDr]

It's only been 10 months. Obviously they're going to ramp up enough in the next couple of months to make a record number of Xs before the year is out.

Well honestly I wouldn’t put that past Tesla.