Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[Hamilaird]

For only 15k more, plaid has to look mighty appealing now.

 

[Super_Popular]

tesla being greedy?

This.

No Model X is worth $105K

 

[T3slafan2500]

So, that is the Model S plaid. The following is all factual (but without references because I don’t have time to locate and this is just a chat not a formal presentation, but if you’re in the know, you know), until my final hypothesis which is just that: conjecture.
1) I believe the original plan for the plaid was to go with 4680s. The “18650s in Plaids” fact was established early on, immediately when the first plaid (weird, ? rolling, ?? cause) fire occurred.
2) Tesla production lines aren’t static like traditional auto manufacturers. They make somewhere around 20 physical advancements/changes every week.
3) 4680s unsurprisingly have had technical challenges to shift from lab to mass production. But Kato continues to innovate and is now mass producing.
4) Tesla gets rid of old tech before introducing the new. I read this all over the 6-seater push.
5) Tesla expects to be using 4680s in production vehicles in early 2022.
6) Tesla will be using 4680s in all its vehicles as soon as it can. The tech is greatly superior and advances Tesla’s prime directive. Faster recharging, lower cost, better longevity, etc.
7) Elon has repeatedly affirmed that the Model S *and X* will always get the most advanced tech first, *and* have the most range.

Hypothesis: starting early 2022 Model S and X lines will pivot to 4680 structural packs.

I don't think that they'll switch the S/X to the 4680 until late 2022 at the earliest. They just redesigned the pack/chemistry for this refresh so I doubt they'll start production up and ramp it to previous levels and mid-way through the ramp to 100k+ they just switch the pack to 4680+structural design.

 

[focher]

If it’s just because it’s nice to fantasize about it (like winning the lottery) then batting about the idea of 4680s in the S/X is fun. But anyone who thinks there’s a snowball’s chance in Hell of 4680s showing up in these vehicles anytime soon is deluding themselves.

 

[ShawnA]

Hi All,

It looks like my order 10/19/2021 just missed the (latest) price increase.
I would like delivery around September next year, so all is good.
Earlier would be OK but no hurry...

Red/Cream 20" 5 seat FSD.
This will be my first car ever without a black interior...

Patiently waiting,

Shawn

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Yeah idk.
I’ve waited since 2013 on buying a Tesla myself. Then we got a model Y and it’s ridiculously awesome.
So while I said that oh I’ll keep on waiting for what I see as a huge (?even logarithmic) stepwise improvement (4680s/structural), the problem is that I’ve tasted Tesla goodness. It’s really hard to say it’s worth waiting for something even better than what you can already get (or in the case of the X, not get —currently).

 

[KidsEyeDr]

This.

No Model X is worth $105K

Unless it has a 500+ mile range and can charge at 350 kW….
Breadcrumbs…

 

[Captkerosene]

With X price increase, was that high demand , high cost, or just tesla being greedy?

They are pricing cars that won't be delivered for a year. They should be adding 10% instead not 5.

 

[Super_Popular]

Unless it has a 500+ mile range and can charge at 350 kW….
Breadcrumbs…

Agreed, but adding charging to full charge in 10 mins or less.

 

[Niranga]

Got the call. Portland, OR ordered on 1/27. Plaid 5 seat with FSD. Declined; you’re welcome 6 seaters!

Thanks Plaid 6 seat February. I moved up one!

 

[Niranga]

I agree with most points, but S and X are not on high priority for 4680s. Remember they have to ramp Y for a year, and then move over to CT, which alone will take up all of '22's (and a good amount of '23's) battery supply. After CT they have to launch Roadster and the $25k car, and then they could do a 4680 S and X. So I think at the earliest that we could see a 4680 Plaid is maybe mid to late '23 up to '26 or '27. Remember this is essentially a new generation of 18650s, so they have a looooong way to go in their life. Both Panasonic and Tesla need to get their investment back from this, so they will keep the 18650s around for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if eventual 18650s could get to 500+ miles of range alone (there's rumors of a 10% to 15% range increase via SW as they sit right now with no changes), before opening the gates to the 4680s. In fact, the amount of redesigning and retooling required to fit both a cast front and rear along with the structural pack may dictate a new generation of S and X when they do it.

Why did you have to burst my bubble with logic and reasoning? I was excited may be getting Model X Plaid + delivery.

 

[Niranga]

Had a test drive of the Model Y at Milford CT, and had a chat with the staff there. They delivered a Plaid MX 6 seater recently. That order was placed 10/2020. I didn't ask too much detail, so that's all I learned.

Plaid wasn’t announced until January 2021.

 

[Niranga]

Since we are on the subject of 4680, let me add few points. Of course nothing is factual but plausible arguments.

1. We know Tesla likes to increase margins by converting orders to 6 seat configuration. Then why not deliver Plaid first? The plaid motors are already out on MS. What other approvals could they need for MX?
2. Recent price increase for future deliveries could suggest longer range than current EPA estimates for deliveries one year from now.
3. Tesla doesn’t have any models currently available with an EPA range that exceed Lucid’s latest announcement. I think Elon would love to beat Lucid in to deliver with higher range than Lucid models.

I am betting MX Plaid deliveries will surprise us with higher range and 4680 batteries (may be not structural). The structural pack will require major changes to current MS production configuration where I imagine MX will borrow. The government approvals waiting for MX Plaid could be new EPA testing to determine range!

Disclaimer: This is not advice for you to hold off on delivery.

 

[AFBruin]

For only 15k more, plaid has to look mighty appealing now.

Yeah pretty wild that the LR X is $10k more than the LR S but the Plaid X is $10k less than the Plaid S

 

[T3slafan2500]

Since we are on the subject of 4680, let me add few points. Of course nothing is factual but plausible arguments.

1. We know Tesla likes to increase margins by converting orders to 6 seat configuration. Then why not deliver Plaid first? The plaid motors are already out on MS. What other approvals could they need for MX?
2. Recent price increase for future deliveries could suggest longer range than current EPA estimates for deliveries one year from now.
3. Tesla doesn’t have any models currently available with an EPA range that exceed Lucid’s latest announcement. I think Elon would love to beat Lucid in to deliver with higher range than Lucid models.

I am betting MX Plaid deliveries will surprise us with higher range and 4680 batteries (may be not structural). The structural pack will require major changes to current MS production configuration where I imagine MX will borrow. The government approvals waiting for MX Plaid could be new EPA testing to determine range!

Disclaimer: This is not advice for you to hold off on delivery.

Not gonna happen. Why would they use 4680 cells on the X when the X already has great demand and the new 18650 pack can handle the job? Not to mention the Plaid S has the 18650 and performs great in every way.

 

[Notna]

For only 15k more, plaid has to look mighty appealing now.

Welllllll...... I ordered mine on 10/14/21 (US date format) and am already paying 114.8k EUR for a LR MX/5s/20/Grey. The difference here is 'only' 10k in EUR to Plaid, no new price hike yet.

But I'd rather spend that 10k extra in a nice wrap + added security (tracking) than having less range and be a second faster at the traffic lights.

I mean, I am coming from an ICE Citroën C4 Grand Picasso from 2007; anything is faster than that

 

[CDT]

Guessing location and/or combination is why. Seems the call has be mostly easy coast and west coast haven't seen any Midwest (for me) get it yet.

I live in the Bay Area and got the call.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Plaid wasn’t announced until January 2021.

Plaid was originally announced September 22, 2020. Tesla unveils Model S Plaid: 520+ miles, 200 mph, and 0-60mph in less than 2s

The 2021 refresh was announced during the 2020Q4 earnings call on January 27, 2021.

Original Plaid orders were renamed to Plaid+ when "new Plaid" was announced in 2021. After Plaid+ was cancelled, those orders were changed to regular Plaid or cancelled.

 

[OmoAkin]

I

 

[jbrowdy]

For only 15k more, plaid has to look mighty appealing now.

Bingo. This may be why they did it.