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Blog Report: Tesla Has Refunded 23% of Model 3 Deposits

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Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases.

About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent of those people have asked for their money back.

A Tesla spokesperson told Recode that Second Measure’s data does not match its own, but did not offer more specifics. Second Measure says its numbers matched when Tesla CEO Elon Musk disclosed reservation figures last August that suggested 63,000 reservations had been canceled.

“Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time,” the report says.

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The Model 3 has experienced serious production woes that could push out delivery of some reservations for years. It’s understandable that some consumers either can’t or are not willing to wait that long for a new vehicle. Still, there’s no doubt that Tesla will continue to sell Model 3s as fast as they can make them.

The company said it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s last quarter, but expects to notch a significant milestone in production this month.

“Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June,” Musk said in a letter to employees in April. “Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.”

Model 3 deposits are fully refundable up until the customer configures a car by selecting features and paying an additional fee of $2,500. After configuration, vehicles are typically delivered in just a few weeks.

Update: It’s worth noting that canceled reservations for the Model 3 may have been converted to orders for a Model S or Model X.

 
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Some downgraded too. :(

I'm somewhere in the middle. I still have my reservation, even though I thought of cancelling after the latest push-back.
But now I have decided I will get a different BEV in the meantime, most likely an e-Golf, for myself. Considering that the waiting times for that one are also quite long by now I am contemplating buying a used one like a demo with low mileage. When the Model 3 finally arrives in Europe (if ever), I can still get it to replace our other car, cancel, or whatever. The options are there, and I don't need the deposit money anytime soon anyway.
 
I went to the Natick MA store intent on reserving a Model 3 on that first day, 3/31/2016. While in line, I phoned my wife and we talked over a few things. We decided that, since it was possible she would be selling her old house (the one she moved out of when she married me and was now renting out), I'd put a second deposit down.

Well, she still owns that house. The renters have now moved out (though it took a couple of months to get a squatter out) and we're finally GOING to sell the thing - but that hasn't happened yet. In the meantime, the Model Y looks to be the 'more perfect' car for her. Since we couldn't afford two car payments NOW, I requested a refund and got my money back in less than 24 hours.

I've had my '3' for 3 1/2 weeks and I'm loving it. But, just because I cashed in one of my reservations, it doesn't mean we're done with Tesla - it just means we're waiting for the Model Y release to replace my wife's '00 Camry and '06 Grand Caravan.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Sean Wagner
SEC Filings | Tesla, Inc.
check SEC docs above - FORM 10Q - load up the html version
Ctrl-f to look for raw materials
and any other key words
IF you read this document (even if you don't understand the financial numbers) you'll probably be able to answer most questions asked on Tuesday.

AND you'll see why Elon has little patients for these guys calling in who can't take time to read.
AND you'll spot Media BS much easier.

please try


You missed the point. I was replying to the quote

"I agree articles always have some errors. However, any reputable article also links to the actual report."

Now read my post again and realise I was just giving examples of how common articles are that don't link to the actual report.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: adaptabl
Elon was right, when he said no matter what the number is it would be seen as negative, which is exactly why they don't release the data.
But if they release the data and it shows growth in S & X sales, that is exactly the upsell that Elon wants to show and it would be a positive. I think the customers who are departing are mainly those who need a car now or those who know they will never get the $7500 tax benefit. This is not unusual and was probably expected. In the long run, those 100,000 customers might have been worth more than the upsell. I hope some of them come back when they realize that the Supercharger network is the real icing on the Tesla cake.
 
I put a deposit down on a 3. Then I went to the showroom and sat in an X. I'm a pretty tall guy. The extra money for a roomier car, and not having to wait in line for 2 years.... I decided to make it work.
That's great but not everybody has the financial capacity to buy 1 car for the price of 2. Obviously, most mass market deposit holders waiting on an SR will not do this.
 
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Reactions: adaptabl
The reason for the high number of cancellations is that it was marketed as a $35,000 car less fed incentives of $7,500 then less any state incentives. People thought they could get an EV for less than $27,500. That looks like it will never happen with the model 3.

The reason is production delays. That has multiple knock-on effects. Loss of potential tax credit is just one of them.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: adaptabl
But if they release the data and it shows growth in S & X sales, that is exactly the upsell that Elon wants to show and it would be a positive. I think the customers who are departing are mainly those who need a car now or those who know they will never get the $7500 tax benefit. This is not unusual and was probably expected. In the long run, those 100,000 customers might have been worth more than the upsell. I hope some of them come back when they realize that the Supercharger network is the real icing on the Tesla cake.

Last Q the S and X sales were down. It will be interesting if the same continues this Q. The last thing Tesla needs is decreasing sales on it's higher margin cars due to lower margin Model 3 sales.
 
Last Q the S and X sales were down. It will be interesting if the same continues this Q. The last thing Tesla needs is decreasing sales on it's higher margin cars due to lower margin Model 3 sales.

Sales numbers don't matter so much as margin x sales. Given Model 3 US sales have now overtaken combined US S and X sales for 2018, with Model 3 production still increasing, there's seems little point to Tesla doing aggressive discounting to move aluminum.
 
The reason for the high number of cancellations is that it was marketed as a $35,000 car less fed incentives of $7,500 then less any state incentives. People thought they could get an EV for less than $27,500. That looks like it will never happen with the model 3.

Wow, you spoke to every single person who cancelled and they all said they cancelled is because they won't get the tax credit? Nice work, mind sharing all the data?:rolleyes:

Last Q the S and X sales were down. It will be interesting if the same continues this Q. The last thing Tesla needs is decreasing sales on it's higher margin cars due to lower margin Model 3 sales.

Deliveries (sales) and production does not equal demand. You sure sound like a shortie, I hope you haven't invested using this deep logic on display.

I also made 2 model 3 reservations,plan was to buy one immediately and the 2nd one later. I couldn't wait any longer due to my daughter getting her license and we needed a new car so we bought an X. I plan to buy the 3 in 1-2 years depending on Y details. When we bought the X we cancelled one reservation. We received our model 3 invite about 6 weeks ago, first day line waiter.

For those that are not new to Tesla, shorties have been screaming demand issues for 6 years with model S then X, oops. If you have driven a Tesla, which most haters have not, you would understand why those of us who have are not concerned about demand.
 
The reason for the high number of cancellations is that it was marketed as a $35,000 car less fed incentives of $7,500 then less any state incentives. People thought they could get an EV for less than $27,500. That looks like it will never happen with the model 3.
You might be right but I don't remember Tesla marketing it as $27,500. I think Tesla said $35,000 before any applicable incentives, which still appears to be the intent even if obviously delayed. I think it was people independently thinking they would effectively get the car for $27,500 but I don't think Tesla stated that. That's a key difference.
 
The reason for the high number of cancellations is that it was marketed as a $35,000 car less fed incentives of $7,500 then less any state incentives. People thought they could get an EV for less than $27,500. That looks like it will never happen with the model 3.
I wouldn't say it will never happen. If Tesla hits their 200,000 US sale early in Q3, hits 5,000+ cars/week sometime in Q3, and starts producing the base 3 at the beginning of Q4, I think everyone who reserved in store (I'm assuming 20k reservations, but that could be wrong) and some of those who reserved online that day could get a base 3 with the full tax credit.

Granted, Tesla has to hit a lot of their targets for it to happen, but I wouldn't say it would never happen this early. Odds are they're going to hit their 200,000 US sale in early Q3 because it makes a lot of sense for them and for their customers. The biggest question IMO is whether they can sustain 5k cars/week. If they can, that's a lot of volume which should help them push down *battery and vehicle costs.

*At 5k/week, I think they would be building more kWh of battery for the 3 than every other manufacturer combined is building for their EVs/PHEVs
 
  • Love
Reactions: Brando
It was Chevy that always quoted a base price less tax incentive (and the New Car Press that ever stated it so). Tesla always stated the base model’s price without.

I can’t count how many articles I saw referring to the “$30,000 Chevy Bolt vs the $35,000 Tesla Model 3”

How many “base Bolts” have been delivered to date with their head start they bragged so much about?

Model 3 still starts at base $35,000 and a US taxpayer’s situation is between them and the IRS.
 
Yeah I read that article too, however, it only leaves you asking the question as to what happened with the cancellations? And the answer to that is there are numerous reasons, from upgrading to a model s,buying a used model s, or buying another car, cancelling second or multiple reservations etc... That kind of information is not really a good indicator of anything without the breakdown. Didn't Elon also say way back in the beginning that they got rid of a bunch of reservations that we're not real?