I would also throw in the fact that those roadster winners are mostly “influencers” with large fan bases, they will definitely spread the word that Tesla is being shady and not delivering the prizes.
If I had to guess I’d say Tesla either delivers the roadster or cash value of the roadster.
The real question is when? There was never a definitive timeline for delivering the prizes so how long can Tesla drag their feet?
I think things are going to get very conferential with the referral winners...
(1) Those with two free Roadsters, will probably get them 24 months apart.
(2) Tesla will only allow the Roadsters to be registered in the winners name.
(3) You will owe 1/3 of the FMV of the Roadster as Gift Tax, payable to the feds and state the quarter after you pick up your car. The law allows a portion of gift tax over $5000 to be collected at time of transfer of the gift to you, so Tesla could have you show up with a check for 25%, and the rest you'll need your tax accountant to figure out the remaining federal and state tax liability by the end of the next quarter. Hypothetically, a $250K car with 9.75% sales tax in California will bring the total to $275K (excluding title, registration, any applicable luxury or gas tax, etc...). So 25% of that is $70K for the feds. Yearly registration to get the sticker will start around $2100 as well according to the CA DMV site.
(4) Tesla may offer a cash value at 50% of the FMV that could be used for another Tesla vehicle of their choice if they choose not to get the Roadster due to the huge gift tax liability. The cash value is also a gift as well, so that will be taxed accordingly.
(5) They may stagger referral winners with those who purchase a Roadster so they aren't flooding the secondary market with referrals winners telling their Roadster for a reduced price.
(6) We still don't know if the Space X package will be part of founders edition. Founders may be just the badge on the vehicle and the vehicle number being serial numbered. I suspect the SpaceX Package to be an extra optional add-on above and beyond the $250K for the founders edition.
(7) By the time Roadster configuration occurs, I suspect the FSD package to be upwards of $20 to$25K, and to be an extra optional add-on to the Roadster (even for Referral Winners).
I'm just speculating on the above considering all of the problems in today's world that may carry over in some regards to 2023...