I'm surprised no-one has yet talked about the re-calibration of "Ideal Miles" that Tesla will need to do for cars with the 3.0 upgrade package. And, while some have said they want only the battery upgrade, the non-battery upgrades are what I would do now (if any) since my battery is in good shape.
Here's some analysis. As usual, correct me if my math is sloppy:
We don't yet have enough information to understand what the new Ideal Miles will be. Will it be based on the 400 mile promise, or something else? The 245 was either from the EPA 2-cycle test at the time, or from 50 MPH continuous driving (does anyone know for sure?). We don't know the conditions for the 400 mile achievable range. People have gone over 300 miles in a Roadster under very limited conditions today, but that's not how the Ideal Miles were calibrated. I believe Model S's Ideal Miles is similarly based on the new 5-cycle EPA test, so my guess is that will also be what Tesla does for Roadster 3.0.
Today's Roadster, when new, supplies 53kWh of juice (available). The 31% more energy that Elon's blog post cites puts the new pack at 69.43kWh, which corresponds to the "roughly 70kWh" statement. 400 miles from 70kWh is about 175 watt-hours per Ideal Mile, if Tesla chooses to calibrate based on that claim. Today an Ideal Mile corresponds to 216.3 watt-hours/mile (53kWh/245).
Of course, a larger capacity battery doesn't change the Wh/mile - that's coming from the additional parts of the upgrade - aerodynamics, rolling resistance, wheel bearings, residual brake drag, etc. Those are worth around a 23% improvement in range by themselves.
Will Tesla sell the upgrade in pieces, or will we have to take the whole enchilada? For those of use with custom paint, custom StarShield, etc., will there be additional cost involved for the aero improvements? For those who want the best handling, can we at least not use the new LRR tires (note that the Yoko 07 and 08 series are already LRR) since expectation is that they'll have less grip?
And now, what if people opt for the battery swap but don't do the aerodynamic or mechanical or tire portions of the upgrade? They'll have an Ideal Mile calibration that will be even more separate from reality, and that will vary by car depending on upgrades done. Of course, we have some of that today with people putting different tires on the vehicle, but perhaps that's more minor - or has anyone correlated range degradation with non-Yoko tires yet?
While some here have talked about getting the battery swap only, one other question is whether people can opt for the non-battery portions and thus get a 23% improvement in range without changing out the battery? This actually seems the best way to go if you have a good battery. At 245 Ideal Miles (my car charges into the mid-220's), I can go 190 real miles today. If those get 23% better, I'm now looking at 300 Ideal Miles and 233 real miles on my existing battery (152.6 CAC). Then I can continue to drive on my old battery since it has plenty of useful life left and get the new battery only when it's time. But, as I said up thread, based on past Roadster upgrade experience, I'm not confident that Tesla will continue to provide any Roadster upgrade package for more than a year. Maybe this time is different since it's so public.
But, we don't know what the new look for the car will be, nor what the expense of all those changes will be. Wheel bearings and new brake release design, as well as tires, are quite straightforward. Depending on where the aerodynamic pieces are and from what they're made will determine that part of the cost (plus paint and/or StarShield).
All things to ponder as we try to make the best of what Tesla is offering to us.
