EVNow
Well-Known Member
Alt-right in the west and Putin use the same language.
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Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.
I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."
Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.
What you describe that led to China's success is capitalism + socialism (which allows planned economies). China is pretty much "communist" in name only now after Deng Xiaoping. In communism, there is supposed to be no class system, everyone is supposed to earn the same wages regardless of ability/contribution, government distribution of resources based on need (not ability/contribution) and no privatization of industry/production. That was all thrown out the window, which led to China's success. If China continued the old communist ways, I don't see them having a booming economy.
You can compare to Taiwan, which despite having much less resources, boomed, while mainland China was stagnating under older policies.
I agree, capitalism combined with democracy and the fight to unionize and protect laborers from powerful/greedy business owners took the western world to where it is today. In the East, people weren’t just fighting greedy businessmen, they were fighting Czars and emperors who had much more power. The word of the emperors IS the law, and although communism failed, it was because the Czars and Emperors weren’t investing as much money into education, science and technology to begin with. The lower class had to depend on what they knew best, which was farming & agriculture; this was expected because the lower class living in poverty was most interested in filling their stomachs first, before they’re able to rebuild the economy the people needed to be fed. But even agriculture needed technology to remain competitive, their lack of expertise in science & technology ultimately sealed the communists’ fate, as they were ill-equipped in a modern world. When communism took over, many rose through the ranks from being peasants, who now found themselves as officers. Most lacked basic education, so they made poor administrative decisions. In a democratic state, education is prevalent, which ensures a bright future for generations to come. Can you guess who leads the world in education today? It’s no longer western democratic states, according to a 2018 study, the #1 spot ranked for both math and science belongs to-China.Good points, though how communism was implemented in the end didn't really look all that much like what Marx and Engle envisioned. Strip away the communist rhetoric and most communist governments look like a bit more formalized dictatorship like we've seen in a lot of places. But the communist talking points were a vehicle to industrialize a number of countries that were stuck in a pre-industrialized state. Though the path Taiwan and South Korea took to full industrialization was better for the people both in the process and in the long run than the way communists did it.
Ultimately automation is going to be the cheapest labor.
Does anyone have actual reliable numbers on this? It's been claimed that public opinion shifted in the Donbas region after Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine, and that the overwhelming majority of people in the Donbas region now hates the Russians. Just wondering about what is actually known about public opinion in Crimea and the Donbas region..../ I believe people in Crimea are still 80% pro Russian after this invasion. /...
Russia may declare victory, but I have sneaky suspicion that Ukraine won't let them off the hook till every last Russian soldier is out of their territory, and that might even include Crimea.
Simply put, Russia can't sustain the losses they are taking. Not in manpower, not in equipment, and certainly not in morale.
This is what I found:CNN is just covering the SCOTUS nomination right now. Care to elaborate on Ukraine? What particularly is the development you're seeing? TIA.
Col.-Gen Sergei Rudskoi, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, said the main objective of the first stage of the operation — reducing Ukraine's fighting capacity — has "generally been accomplished,” allowing Russian forces to focus on “the main goal, liberation of Donbas.
Basically your analysis is, from the start, flawed.Their economy will suck, but it won't collapse. They are more than self-sufficient in the necessities, e.g. food, energy, timber, steel, concrete.
1.2 trillion is mostly one time in nature, e.g. seizing their reserves plus some yachts and such. Ongoing sanctions are inconvenient, not crippling.
@MC3OZ posted the key data earlier. Russia runs a huge trade surplus. We're talking 15-20% of GDP. January 2022 annualized comes to 550b exports vs 300b imports, and oil/gas prices have risen since then. Even if we shut down 100% of their oil/gas exports they could still fund their imports. And we can't shut down anywhere near 100%, heck China alone buys close to half their crude oil.
Shutting down imports inconveniences them, but further boosts their trade surplus. Of their biggest imports fancy cars and most electronics are frills. Vlad wants to purge decadent western crap anyway. They can get key industrial equipment from China. Maybe we block a few components here and there, but again just nuisance level stuff. Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.
I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."
Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.
Sounds to me like a reasonable white wash of what's been happening, but honestly anything that Putin can sell internally as a win and allows him to retreat is a good thing in my mind. That is to say - whatever Russia wants to gin up to make retreating from Ukraine more palatable sounds good to me.
Alt-right in the west and Putin use the same language.
A top Russian general gave some of the most detailed public remarks to date on Russia's military strategy in Ukraine, claiming on Friday that the "first stage" of Russia's military plan is now complete ...
The idea on the Russian side is to declare victory by declaring that the mission was to reduce Ukrainian forces and liberate Donbas.
It will take a while for sanctions to bite and the West can and probably should do a lot more to tighten sanctions. That sanction tightening is a progressive process. What Russia does import is a lot of food luxury items and parts for planes / cars etc. All of which is going to be higher priced and harder to get.Their economy will suck, but it won't collapse. They are more than self-sufficient in the necessities, e.g. food, energy, timber, steel, concrete.
1.2 trillion is mostly one time in nature, e.g. seizing their reserves plus some yachts and such. Ongoing sanctions are inconvenient, not crippling.
@MC3OZ posted the key data earlier. Russia runs a huge trade surplus. We're talking 15-20% of GDP. January 2022 annualized comes to 550b exports vs 300b imports, and oil/gas prices have risen since then. Even if we shut down 100% of their oil/gas exports they could still fund their imports. And we can't shut down anywhere near 100%, heck China alone buys close to half their crude oil.
Shutting down imports inconveniences them, but further boosts their trade surplus. Of their biggest imports fancy cars and most electronics are frills. Vlad wants to purge decadent western crap anyway. They can get key industrial equipment from China. Maybe we block a few components here and there, but again just nuisance level stuff. Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.
I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."
Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.
Seems like they were bombing civilians because they have no better alternative. Every Russian commander knew going in would have been a catastrophe. They were hoping for a surrender but they know that it'll never happen as what is going on in Mariupol. They know the Ukrainians will fight until every last dying breath without fear. So now that the Ukrainians are having successful counter offensive pushing the Russians further and further away from Kiev, there's really no point and should just declare a victory and leave.Sounds like BS to me, or Russia would not have been bombing civilian targets for a month.
Russia needs time to re-organize and resupply. I sincerely hope they do not get it. Wipe out the invaders, and let them sue for peace
Soviets helped cause the war, partnered with Hitler to invade Poland, attacked Finland and Baltic states sent millions to gulags and then used ancient chinese military strategy to win, as long as you only lose 10 for every enemy killed...you're winning. Their tactics were horrific, their strategy terrible, the purges (self inflected) had gutted themselves. Even then they had to do it with US logistics. The Russian army moved on US trucks, almost 500,000 in total. Did they suffer horribly? Sure they did. Were they suffering horribly before the war ? Sure they did. Did they invade innocent nations first? Sure they did. Did they backstab the Poles? Sure they did.We do talk a lot of *sugar* about winning the war, when in fact something like 15-20x more Soviets died fighting the Nazis.
Not to start another irrelevant and boring tangent in this thread.........
Are you saying alt-right is good and Putin is bad or the other way round ?One example doesn't make a trend, ….
Seems like they were bombing civilians because they have no better alternative
At this point if I am ukraine I dont know why I would settle for very much. As long as western aid flows, summer and spring arrive, oil production worldwide is soaring (reducing pain for EU), and EU continues to be horrified and pull away from Russia and rearm I don't see the raison d'etre for settlement. I'd fight til I go what I wanted and I think the Ukrainians want Crimea back.It will take a while for sanctions to bite and the West can and probably should do a lot more to tighten sanctions. That sanction tightening is a progressive process. What Russia does import is a lot of food luxury items and parts for planes / cars etc. All of which is going to be higher priced and harder to get.
In addition to economic sanctions there are a lot of cultural sanctions with Russia being frozen out of cultural and sporting events. Russians still see themselves as European, with a proud cultural heritage being frozen out of Europe is a big deal.
Same thing for trade, a lot of Russia trade is with Europe, and reorientating to trade with China and other countries is not so easy.
The 3rd prong is the war, around Kyiv all indications are Russia is doing badly. However, in the East and South Russia is doing relatively well and the better Ukrainian troops are in the East.
Without adequate resupply/reinforcement with Russian troops near Kyiv will dwindle away to nothing or will be forced to retreat leaving a lot of equipment behind. We need to keep in mind this includes some of al of the 40 mile column of equipment. The current Russian strategy seems to be dig in and hold on.
Similarly in the East and South the Ukrainian army needs resupply / reinforcement and some counter-attacks to relive the pressure.
The good news is Russia knows total victory is off the table, the are probably hoping for a negotiated settlement ASAP.
What we don't yet know is how quickly Ukraine can improve things in the East and South.
All 3 prongs are putting pressure of Russia:-
Russia recently published outrageous claims for Ukrainian losses. The problem is inflicting heavy military losses on an opponent looks more like a war than a special military operation. The longer it drags on the more it looks like a war a war for which prior permission was not sought. And the longer it drags on the more all 3 prongs bite.
- Military
- Economic
- Cultural/social
This is a brutal and high cost war, the high cost means it isn't sustainable for either side.