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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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It is funny, though, that if Russia were to use nuclear weaphons, the European countries would finally do a 100% embargo on all Russian products. Seems like waiting for that is a fools errand?

Politics is the art of what's possible. Europe could go cold turkey off Russian oil, but it would require heavy rationing until other sources could be found.

Politically that's a no go today. Most Europeans want to be off Russian oil, but if you tell them what it's going to take, they will balk.

If things get much more serious for Europe, then the political will will shift.

In 1939 the US realized that it was almost certainly going to end up in the war in Europe, but the political will was not there. In the 1940 presidential election there was a fairly strong isolationist sentiment and that drove the vote to some degree. Roosevelt still won, but by a smaller margin then in 1932 and 1936.

Pearl Harbor completely erased the isolationism. Charles Lindbergh, who had been one of the most vocal isolationists wanted to do anything he could for the war effort. He tried to join the military, but Roosevelt's administration prevented it because of his pre-war isolationism. He became a consultant for Lockheed instead and ended up flying some combat missions in the South Pacific off books.

European politicians should make their people aware of what cutting off Russian oil cold turkey means economically so if Russia escalates enough people are prepared for what it necessary. Politically it's an impossible thing right now, but if Russia uses nukes, it might become possible to cut off Russian oil and deal with the shortages.

The KGB educated Putin may have some serious issues with the new anti-propaganda digitally weaponized Ukraine. This article is remarkable in that it will provide indisputable evidence for the ICC of war crimes that even identifies the individuals committing these crimes. It also will provide the Russian citizens proof of what is really happening. They then can either continue drinking vodka and pretend they are OK or take some positive actions to preserve what is left of Russia. President Biden has made some great moves here.
The best weapons used to be ink on paper; now its bits in cyberspace. I only see positive results here thanks to the Ukrainians and all the countries that are supporting them.


Unfortunately most Russians will never see any of the evidence. The few people who might see it are already against the war. 80% of Russians only get news from the controlled Russian media. In the rural areas there is little to no internet and all they have is state controlled TV.

Also all the documenting of the war crimes will probably come to nothing. The perpetrators in WW II were mostly brought to justice because the allies occupied all the axis countries. Nobody is going to occupy Russia. International indictments would prevent people from leaving the country, but that's about all it would accomplish.
 
Can you provide a source for that statement?

I can't remember. I saw it 2-3 weeks ago, which is an eon in the timeline of this war. It may have been Kamil Galeev
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

He's written a number of essays on Russian culture, but I can't find the post now. I recall reading an essay that discussed who supports the war and who is against it. Putin's core support are bubushkas (older Russian women) who don't use the internet. The younger generation in urban areas are internet savvy and a high percentage of them have VPNs and access western news.
 
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Also all the documenting of the war crimes will probably come to nothing. The perpetrators in WW II were mostly brought to justice because the allies occupied all the axis countries. Nobody is going to occupy Russia. International indictments would prevent people from leaving the country, but that's about all it would accomplish.
Still it is important to document war crimes, just in case there is a chance of a conviction at some future date.

Criminals can be named and shamed, with an International arrest warrant ensuring their travel options are severely limited.

Regime change in Russia, or a misstep by the criminal might one day allow a trail.

Some sanctions could remain in place until criminals are handed over for trail. Even if that takes decades, or never happens.

Regime change in Russia isn't likely anytime soon, but "never" is a long time. 30-40 years into the future is hard to predict, some criminals will still be alive.
 
Still it is important to document war crimes, just in case there is a chance of a conviction at some future date.

Criminals can be named and shamed, with an International arrest warrant ensuring their travel options are severely limited.

Regime change in Russia, or a misstep by the criminal might one day allow a trail.

Some sanctions could remain in place until criminals are handed over for trail. Even if that takes decades, or never happens.

Regime change in Russia isn't likely anytime soon, but "never" is a long time. 30-40 years into the future is hard to predict, some criminals will still be alive.

I agree, but those who are expecting the criminals will be rounded up and tried the day after the war is over are going to be disappointed. People should have reasonable expectations. Most of the criminals may never see their day in court. I'm all for filing charges and putting them on a wanted list. A few may get caught, but most probably won't.
 
Still it is important to document war crimes, just in case there is a chance of a conviction at some future date.

Criminals can be named and shamed, with an International arrest warrant ensuring their travel options are severely limited.

Regime change in Russia, or a misstep by the criminal might one day allow a trail.

Some sanctions could remain in place until criminals are handed over for trail. Even if that takes decades, or never happens.

Regime change in Russia isn't likely anytime soon, but "never" is a long time. 30-40 years into the future is hard to predict, some criminals will still be alive.
Sadly was watching Rachel Maddow tonight and she did a story on the uncovering of mass graves in Siberia in 1994 after the fall of the USSR. The mass graves of over 9000 people became a memorial site to all the people murdered at the behest of Stalin. A museum was set up and scholars went to work documenting it. Then Putin came to power and got tired of people dissing Stalin so he had the original discoverer of the site arrested for being a child molester and then the person running the museum for coincidentally also being a child molester. They went to prison and the site memorials were bulldozed. In Russia history is rewritten by the latest murderous evil scumbag.
 
.../ 80% of Russians only get news from the controlled Russian media. In the rural areas there is little to no internet and all they have is state controlled TV. /...
Can you provide a source for that statement?
I can't remember. I saw it 2-3 weeks ago, which is an eon in the timeline of this war. It may have been Kamil Galeev
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

He's written a number of essays on Russian culture, but I can't find the post now. I recall reading an essay that discussed who supports the war and who is against it. Putin's core support are bubushkas (older Russian women) who don't use the internet. The younger generation in urban areas are internet savvy and a high percentage of them have VPNs and access western news.

Is this a credible source?


According to that link, the Internet usage within the Russian Federation is about 84,99%...

If your source is Kamil Galeev – then doesn't he appear to be 'pretty off' in this case?...
 
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Is this a credible source?


According to that link, the Internet usage within the Russian Federation is about 84,99%...

If your source is Kamil Galeev – then doesn't he appear to be 'pretty off' in this case?...

He wasn't talking about the people who have the internet in Russia, but the percentage who use VPNs to get around Russian firewalls and consume news from outside the Russian propaganda sphere. That's about 20% and it's very heavily young people and almost all have some tech sophistication too. Like in the west there are bubushka's that use the internet to watch cat videos and see their grand kids, but they aren't seeking out news other than what they get on TV.
 
European politicians should make their people aware of what cutting off Russian oil cold turkey means economically so if Russia escalates enough people are prepared for what it necessary. Politically it's an impossible thing right now, but if Russia uses nukes, it might become possible to cut off Russian oil and deal with the shortages.

Yes, people should be given the information, so they can choose. Same as people can choose if they want to buy "sustainable" electricity or "coal electricity" and pay the price, people should be given choice between "blood oil" and "less blood oil".

About justice, there is probably no justice for the wrongdoings of war, but they will always find someone to turn in for public punishment.
 
Bottom line, we have little influence over what happens inside Russia, beyond sanctions and suppling Ukraine with weapons.

But there is a real disconnect between what Russia wants to achieve from the war, and what it is likely to achieve, especially if we keep supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Tighten sanctions and give Ukraine the necessary weapons, sooner or later Russia will cut their losses, (or perhaps in an unlikely event go nuclear).

It is best to mostly ignore all threats from Russia, but try to keep dialogue open as far as possible.

If the war goes really badly for the Russians they will not need the internet to find out, there will be a general mobilisation, and a lot of very reluctant soldiers who don't want to go to war. Sooner or later there has to be a circuit-breaker to avoid Russia descending into chaos.

My only question is if we are are bit too slow to adequately arm Ukraine, but even if we are, any Russian success is likely to be short lived.

I don't think Ukraine will settle for a bad deal.
 
Putin's claiming the sanctions are not working. Needless to say, foreign dependence (main Europe's) on their oil and gas have helped greatly in keeping Russia well funded (up thread there was discussion already on this and how quickly Europe can wean off it, as well as if it's a zero sum game where Russia can easily replace lost European demand). Of course there are factors that dispute the claim sanctions are not working:
Estimates from international financial organizations of the contraction in the Russian economy range from 10 to 15 percent. On Monday, the Russian central bank said on its website that consumer prices on average were 16.7 percent higher than they were a year ago.
Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims.
But to be fair, their central banker Nabiullina did a good job of preventing immediate collapse, helping the ruble recover to pre-war levels. However as per her warning, some of the longer term effects have yet to come (right now their factories still have supplies of imported spare parts, as they dry out, factories may have to close if they can't come up with domestic alternatives).
 
Bottom line, we have little influence over what happens inside Russia, beyond sanctions and suppling Ukraine with weapons.

But there is a real disconnect between what Russia wants to achieve from the war, and what it is likely to achieve, especially if we keep supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Tighten sanctions and give Ukraine the necessary weapons, sooner or later Russia will cut their losses, (or perhaps in an unlikely event go nuclear).

It is best to mostly ignore all threats from Russia, but try to keep dialogue open as far as possible.

If the war goes really badly for the Russians they will not need the internet to find out, there will be a general mobilisation, and a lot of very reluctant soldiers who don't want to go to war. Sooner or later there has to be a circuit-breaker to avoid Russia descending into chaos.

My only question is if we are are bit too slow to adequately arm Ukraine, but even if we are, any Russian success is likely to be short lived.

I don't think Ukraine will settle for a bad deal.

Putin has lashed himself to the wheel here. His fate is now tied to the success of the war. He's going to have a very tough time giving up on the war. The pain is going to have to get extreme before Russia gives up. It will likely only be after Putin gets an "emergency retirement."

Russia has a history of destabilization when they lose a war.

Putin's claiming the sanctions are not working. Needless to say, foreign dependence (main Europe's) on their oil and gas have helped greatly in keeping Russia well funded (up thread there was discussion already on this and how quickly Europe can wean off it, as well as if it's a zero sum game where Russia can easily replace lost European demand). Of course there are factors that dispute the claim sanctions are not working:

Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims.
But to be fair, their central banker Nabiullina did a good job of preventing immediate collapse, helping the ruble recover to pre-war levels. However as per her warning, some of the longer term effects have yet to come (right now their factories still have supplies of imported spare parts, as they dry out, factories may have to close if they can't come up with domestic alternatives).

An exhaustive look at the economic issues of the war as well as how the sanctions are impacting Russia

It's not fast, but they are working.
 
Putin's claiming the sanctions are not working. Needless to say, foreign dependence (main Europe's) on their oil and gas have helped greatly in keeping Russia well funded (up thread there was discussion already on this and how quickly Europe can wean off it, as well as if it's a zero sum game where Russia can easily replace lost European demand). Of course there are factors that dispute the claim sanctions are not working:

Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims.
But to be fair, their central banker Nabiullina did a good job of preventing immediate collapse, helping the ruble recover to pre-war levels. However as per her warning, some of the longer term effects have yet to come (right now their factories still have supplies of imported spare parts, as they dry out, factories may have to close if they can't come up with domestic alternatives).
There's quite a lot of evidence sanctions are having an effect, just two of the more obvious ones being,

Tanks
or

Aircraft
 
Russians lies about "stormy weather" in the Black Sea now exposed in this video showing a glassy sea state shortly before the badly-listing Moskva rolled and sank.

Images appear to show final moments of Russian warship | CNN


Russia massively damaged itself with its lies on Moskva, hopefully starting a revolt against Putler.

Russian Military officially states the Moskva sinking was an accident, and all the crew are safe.
Already on national TV popular talk show basically said the ship was sunk by Ukraine and there must be retaliation.
Now the families of the crew are demanding to know where their relatives are, with many pleading for any info, a very few receiving word they are dead, and other saying the surviving crewmen speaking of mass casualties.

I am sure most Russians already do not trust the Putler regime, but now they are seeing they could conscripted at a moments notice and sent away to die with no one knowing what happened.