Russia/Ukraine conflict

[FlatSix911]

Interesting assessment...

F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’

• Aformer F-35 test pilot weighed in on the fighter jet’s performance in the Ukraine conflict and how it represents a massive leap forward from Cold War-era aircraft.
• Billie Flynn contends the F-35 is so different from Soviet Cold War fighters that pilots used to the latter would be unable to transition to the F-35.
• Flynn also thinks the F-35 is the most survivable aircraft for the dangerous skies over Ukraine.

"One of the most noted authorities on the F-35 has some interesting things to say about the jet, including how it would fit in with European air forces, and how suitable the fighter is for the air war over Ukraine. Billie Flynn, a former Lockheed Martin test pilot, also talked about how the jet represents a massive leap forward from older, Soviet-designed fighter jets, noting that the pilots who train them would be unable to learn how to fly the F-35. Flynn also believes the F-35 is the only jet that can survive in the lethal air environment over Ukraine."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting assessment...

F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’

• Aformer F-35 test pilot weighed in on the fighter jet’s performance in the Ukraine conflict and how it represents a massive leap forward from Cold War-era aircraft.
• Billie Flynn contends the F-35 is so different from Soviet Cold War fighters that pilots used to the latter would be unable to transition to the F-35.
• Flynn also thinks the F-35 is the most survivable aircraft for the dangerous skies over Ukraine.

"One of the most noted authorities on the F-35 has some interesting things to say about the jet, including how it would fit in with European air forces, and how suitable the fighter is for the air war over Ukraine. Billie Flynn, a former Lockheed Martin test pilot, also talked about how the jet represents a massive leap forward from older, Soviet-designed fighter jets, noting that the pilots who train them would be unable to learn how to fly the F-35. Flynn also believes the F-35 is the only jet that can survive in the lethal air environment over Ukraine."

That's just marketing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's no need to replace Russian exports, because there's zero chance they stop flowing. Even a full embargo means plenty of nations remain willing to buy cheap Russian oil.

And that should be our goal, cutting crude prices in half and making it so Russia has to dis out 30% from there.

I would argue we're already on a path to that reality. US production is climbing as the pandemic ends and demand has peaked. Give it a couple months and reality will overtake the shortage narrative.

 

[FlatSix911]

Wow, militarized dolphins! That's new to me. I wonder if they're trained to attack or just alert.
I guess it isn't that much different than training dogs for military service, but just seems wrong.

MSN

 

[nativewolf]

U.S. HIMARS Rocket Artillery Going to Ukraine Would Be a Game Changer

Many believe the U.S.-supplied MRLS is the M142 HIMARS could be operating in Ukraine based by recent comments of Victoria Nuland.

www.19fortyfive.com

More discussion re the MLRS shipments. So maybe they did send the smaller version (smaller number of launch tubes).

 

[bkp_duke]

That's just marketing.

Friend's husband is an F22 pilot. He's given us (unclassified) stories about what he did while on patrol in Alaska. Literally, no joke, on several occasions he would just coast for up to 15 minutes underneath the Russian bombers as they ran their normal runs towards the US coastline. If they knew he was there, they never acted like it, not until he radioed them and said they might want to consider going back home.

There are times that the marketing and reality are pretty darned close. US airpower and pilot training are the real deal.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You keep arguing about oil as if oil production is 0 sum. It's not. There is plenty of slack potential in the world. SA, UAE, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela are all operating below where they could be for various reasons. Then the USA where production is also below, quite a bit, what it could be. Throw Canada in and in total you could replace Russia and more.

As I've mentioned upthread, my position is OPEC will not increase a single barrel. IMHO the Gulf states will decrease output to offset any increase from Iran and VZ. And US production growth will be naturally offset by consumption growth as we recover, WFH fades away, etc.

Then you are also ignoring demand destruction from the conflict and pandemic. China's demand destruction won't last forever but for now it's taking a couple million a day out of demand.

Yes, "Zero Covid Xi" is helping. China oil demand was set to grow ~0.5m bpd this year, in line with their long term trend. Lockdowns are temporarily knocking that down. I saw one estimate April would be down 20% y/y, which seems wildly out of whack since Shanghai is only 0.2% of China's population. Even allowing for other lockdowns, Shanghai's higher per capita consumption, etc. I can't get to more than 1-2% reduction. Unless the lockdowns spread countrywide or something.

If the EU embargoes Russian oil Russia will have to ship it much further. The pipelines provide about 750k bpd so much of it was shipped by tanker already but an embargo would mean that they have a much longer cruise distance and that is going to strand some oil.

Yes, there will be disruptions. Longer trips for Russian oil, partly offset by shorter trips for Gulf oil flowing to Europe instead of Asia.

Further to your point in 24 months we'll be at the point where the numerous battery factories being built are producing enough EVs to remove a million a year, every year another million plus the million removed the year before.

I don't have a nice spreadsheet, but I also use 10 bbl/year per EV. That's probably a bit optimistic, the vast majority of EV sales are in Europe and China where average annual mileages are lower than in North America and average ICE MPG is higher. Also 1/3rd of global EVs are PHEVs, which only save 70-80% as oil as a long range BEV, and a big chunk of EV sales are short range city cars (e.g. Hongguang Mini, VW eUP) that also displace much less oil than 3/Y.

The global long term demand growth trend is 1m bpd per year. So we need to scale up to ~36m EVs per year to offset that demand growth and hold oil consumption steady at 100m bpd.

If we wanted to displace oil 4x faster we'd only allow long range BEVs in high mileage applications like taxi/uber. A 60-70k mile/year taxi or uber driver saves 4-5x as much oil by going EV as a commuter. Personal use would be restricted to PHEVs and small-battery city cars, which also provide 3-5x as much oil savings per constrained kWh. I know these ideas are extremely unpopular here, but the arithmetic is straightforward.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Friend's husband is an F22 pilot. He's given us (unclassified) stories about what he did while on patrol in Alaska. Literally, no joke, on several occasions he would just coast for up to 15 minutes underneath the Russian bombers as they ran their normal runs towards the US coastline. If they knew he was there, they never acted like it, not until he radioed them and said they might want to consider going back home.

There are times that the marketing and reality are pretty darned close. US airpower and pilot training are the real deal.

In medieval times I was an F-15 propulsion engineer. In 1982 Israel and Syria tangled over the skies of Lebanon, with Israeli F-15/16s completely wiping out the Syrian MiG-21/23s (Syria also had MiG-25s, but those weren't really usable as fighters). Something like 88:1 was claimed, though I think that included a small bit of "marketing". Better planes and electronics/jamming played a big role and Israeli pilots were great. One year later we were shocked when an Israeli pilot landed an F-15 after a mid-air collision took off his right wing:

BTW, someone mentioned M270s. The Ukrainians say they're already using them. Might also be "marketing".

 

[nativewolf]

It's amazing what one can do with decent chain mail, a flail, and a F15; thanks for the great pic you medieval fossil

 

[wdolson]

I had also missed the MLRS deployment. HA...now things become clear, now I can see Austin starting to get involved. We've doubled/tripled down in Ukraine. This and the polish tanks and the ghost drones; now we are providing Ukraine with heavy weapons. In the US army a single MLRS battery replaced an entire howitzer battalion and fires 12 times as fast. It is indeed a game changer. Very interesting @wdolson

EDIT: I can't find any other source that mentions the US sending MLRS. It would be quite the escalation of heavy weaponry, let us know if you see any more news on that. I have seen lots of posts on the 18 155mm howitzers, czech and slovakian and polish self propelled and towed howitzers, etc but a single MLRS launcher would be an equivalent.

I've read some other reports today there are M-142s, not M-270s. Both fire the same missiles, but the M-270 has 2x capacity.

There are several reports that the Ukrainians are claiming they are in action.

My partner also saw something yesterday that the US is secretly training Ukrainians to fly F-16s and they are setting up a NATO run maintenance base on the Polish border. It may have contractors working on the planes though. In any case, that is more hands on than NATO has been up to this point, if true.

I agree with both but...the point still holds at least for the USA where light vehicles are almost all gasoline vs diesel. A barrel yields about 20 gallons of gas. EV's kill the consumption of gas, 12 million EVs replace the gasoline from a million barrels of oil per day...but it also removes 10 million gallons of diesel fuel from the market.

My aha here is that unless the oil industry can manipulate the proportion of diesel (which I assume they can to some extent but how much?) the EV movement will start increasing the price of diesel fuel as the demand for gas but NOT diesel falls so the refinery will have to process a barrel to produce a profitable product (diesel) but have to dump gas. It's not that the demand for oil is dropping it is the demand for gas that is going to get crushed first. There are still few if any replacements for diesel equipment/trucks. What says the forum? Is that correct?

I agree with your comment on the MLRS systems, I don't see that anywhere else.

I might think more on this later.

Reworking for diesel is not that difficult, but the US has been refining very little diesel the last few decades. The demand for motor fuels exceeded refinery supply in the 90s and the US started importing diesel instead of building more refineries. Almost all the hydrocarbon imports to the US before the war was Russian diesel. I assume the US is getting it from somewhere else now.

A large percentage of US refineries have hydrocrackers to refine heavy oil. Most of the oil left in North America is heavy oil. With a hydro cracker you can make any length of oil chains you want, so switching to diesel shouldn't be too difficult.

I have read that about 1-2 gallons of a barrel are lost in the refining process and about 20 gallons of gasoline/petrol is about the most you can make from a barrel. The oil industry doesn't like to talk about this, but about 8-16 KWH of electricity from the grid are used per gallon of fuel produced. Heavier oil is going to be on the high end of this.

Satellite photos show missiles being loaded onto Russian submarine. Dolphin pens, too.
https://www.space.com/russian-submarine-missile-loading-satellite-photo

I haven’t seen this reported elsewhere. Not surprising.

I read they were launched at Ukraine the other day. Probably trying to make up for the loss of the Moskva.

Interesting assessment...

F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’

• Aformer F-35 test pilot weighed in on the fighter jet’s performance in the Ukraine conflict and how it represents a massive leap forward from Cold War-era aircraft.
• Billie Flynn contends the F-35 is so different from Soviet Cold War fighters that pilots used to the latter would be unable to transition to the F-35.
• Flynn also thinks the F-35 is the most survivable aircraft for the dangerous skies over Ukraine.

"One of the most noted authorities on the F-35 has some interesting things to say about the jet, including how it would fit in with European air forces, and how suitable the fighter is for the air war over Ukraine. Billie Flynn, a former Lockheed Martin test pilot, also talked about how the jet represents a massive leap forward from older, Soviet-designed fighter jets, noting that the pilots who train them would be unable to learn how to fly the F-35. Flynn also believes the F-35 is the only jet that can survive in the lethal air environment over Ukraine."

It might take longer to train someone, but I'm sure the Ukrainians can learn. But Ukraine is not getting F-35s any time soon. They might get F-16s before this is over.

U.S. HIMARS Rocket Artillery Going to Ukraine Would Be a Game Changer

Many believe the U.S.-supplied MRLS is the M142 HIMARS could be operating in Ukraine based by recent comments of Victoria Nuland.

www.19fortyfive.com

More discussion re the MLRS shipments. So maybe they did send the smaller version (smaller number of launch tubes).

Yes, I've read the M-142 has been sent. It also appeared on at least one list of western equipment sent that I saw.

In medieval times I was an F-15 propulsion engineer. In 1982 Israel and Syria tangled over the skies of Lebanon, with Israeli F-15/16s completely wiping out the Syrian MiG-21/23s (Syria also had MiG-25s, but those weren't really usable as fighters). Something like 88:1 was claimed, though I think that included a small bit of "marketing". Better planes and electronics/jamming played a big role and Israeli pilots were great. One year later we were shocked when an Israeli pilot landed an F-15 after a mid-air collision took off his right wing:

View attachment 799223


BTW, someone mentioned M270s. The Ukrainians say they're already using them. Might also be "marketing".

I've read that story. I believe it was a mid-air collision during training. The crew didn't realize the wing was gone until they got about halfway back to base because there was a cloud of fuel where the wing used to be from a ruptured fuel tank.

 

[JRP3]

The oil industry doesn't like to talk about this, but about 8-16 KWH of electricity from the grid are used per gallon of fuel produced.

This is a misconception. About 8kWh of energy, mostly in the form of heat, is used to refine a gallon of gas. Less than 1kWh of electricity is used in the process.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have read that about 1-2 gallons of a barrel are lost in the refining process and about 20 gallons of gasoline/petrol is about the most you can make from a barrel. The oil industry doesn't like to talk about this, but about 8-16 KWH of electricity from the grid are used per gallon of fuel produced. Heavier oil is going to be on the high end of this.

In the context of the war, total oil sanctions on Russia are highly desirable, but not essential.

I say "not essential" because the war on the ground is determining the pace and likely to achieve a result faster than sanctions.

But we also need to remember EVs make most sense in high mileage situations, Semitrailers, Taxis, (RoboTaxis).

In this context the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck are very significant for future oil demand, but will not arrive in time to impact the course of the war.

Where Tesla can make a difference is ramping Model Y fast in Austin and Berlin, every bit helps.

I guess this all depends on how long the war lasts, Russia has already lasted longer than I expected, but I think there is a limit to how long they can keep fighting before they are driven out of Ukraine.

If Russia is driven out of Ukraine but keeps fighting on, sanctions are still important, but not urgent. Sooner or later EVs are going to start eating into global oil demand and no one will need Russian oil.

There are already early signs the tide of the war is turning, we might know more in a week or 2.

 

[nativewolf]

Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia, analysts say

The Western artillery flooding into Ukraine will set off a bloody battle of wits backed by long-range weapons and force both sides to grow more nimble if they hope to avoid significant fatalities, U.S. officials and military analysts predict.

www.stripes.com

WAPO article reprinted by star and stripes so not behind the paywall. Discussing the role of heavy artillery going forward in the conflict and seems to confirm that MLRS of one sort will be announced formally- seems that they have indeed been shipping. Also indicates that Ukrainians are being trained here. That's more the sort of thing that would have warranted Austin's visit.

If we are shipping MLRS we can supply a huge amount of regular munitions, not the fancy stuff but general munitions. I think we had 60k rounds in inventory and hardly any have been used. The higher value rounds, with embedded GPS, sabot, better rockets, etc are running $100k to $800k a single round so not something to fire lightly.

The Canadian rounds for the 155mm are pretty neat and have been tweaked to extend range as well.

The french are supplying truck mounted 155 called CAESER, Ukrainians are in France for training. I'd never heard of this but Denmark and Czech republic are also going to be fielding it.

 

[wdolson]

This is a misconception. About 8kWh of energy, mostly in the form of heat, is used to refine a gallon of gas. Less than 1kWh of electricity is used in the process.

Finding accurate data is difficult. The oil companies don't like to admit how much energy is consumed getting gasoline into people's gas tanks.

The linked report here is from 1976 details a large number of electricity inputs in various processes. Catalytic cracking, which is much more common today consumes a lot of electricity
Energy use in petroleum refineries (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV

Using some large scale numbers the US refined 18.9 million barrels a day, which is 6.899 billion a year
Petroleum refining in the United States - Wikipedia

The closest date for electricity bought by refineries is here
U.S. Fuel Consumed at Refineries

The earliest on this list is 2015. The electricity purchased by refineries was 46,860 million KWH for the year. That works out to 6.79 KWH/barrel, which is less than what I quoted above. The chart shows lots of other energy inputs. The natural gas consumed was the equivalent of 185 million KWH. That's 37 KWH of natural gas energy per barrel of oil refined (in 2015).

I didn't calculate for the other energy inputs, but they're going to add up too.

Just looking at refining doesn't cover the energy consumed pumping the oil out of the ground, transporting it to the refinery via either pipeline, tanker ship, or train, then the energy consumed transporting the refined product to the delivery point.

I was wrong that the energy consumed per gallon refined is less than what I cited. I can't find the site that stated the 8-16 KWH/gal now. I came across it 1-2 years ago and I recall it was a fairly reliable source.

Western artillery surging into Ukraine will reshape war with Russia, analysts say

The Western artillery flooding into Ukraine will set off a bloody battle of wits backed by long-range weapons and force both sides to grow more nimble if they hope to avoid significant fatalities, U.S. officials and military analysts predict.

www.stripes.com

WAPO article reprinted by star and stripes so not behind the paywall. Discussing the role of heavy artillery going forward in the conflict and seems to confirm that MLRS of one sort will be announced formally- seems that they have indeed been shipping. Also indicates that Ukrainians are being trained here. That's more the sort of thing that would have warranted Austin's visit.

If we are shipping MLRS we can supply a huge amount of regular munitions, not the fancy stuff but general munitions. I think we had 60k rounds in inventory and hardly any have been used. The higher value rounds, with embedded GPS, sabot, better rockets, etc are running $100k to $800k a single round so not something to fire lightly.

The Canadian rounds for the 155mm are pretty neat and have been tweaked to extend range as well.

The french are supplying truck mounted 155 called CAESER, Ukrainians are in France for training. I'd never heard of this but Denmark and Czech republic are also going to be fielding it.

There was a Canadian guy whose name was, I believe, Gordon Bull, who came up with a way to make gun artillery have much longer ranges and higher accuracy by having the shell release gas into the space behind the shell as it traveled through the air. It drastically reduced the drag created by a vacuum behind the shell. I think most western countries use the technology now.

 

[DayTrippin]

Interesting viewing. Russia could easily cut off the Baltic countries from the rest of NATO. Makes a lot of sense if you look where Kalingrad is. Many people may not realize that Russia is not really a contiguous country (similar to the US with Alaska and Hawaii.)

 

[Doggydogworld]

The earliest on this list is 2015. The electricity purchased by refineries was 46,860 million KWH for the year. That works out to 6.79 KWH/barrel,

Yes, a bit over 150 Wh/gal. Maybe 175 when you include self-generated electricity. That's pretty typical. Refining uses lots of low-grade heat, but very little electricity. It's a good candidate for co-gen, burn natural gas in a turbine then use the waste heat to drive your refinery processes. This Pemex cogen plant pumps 500 MW into the grid.

I can't find the site that stated the 8-16 KWH/gal now. I came across it 1-2 years ago and I recall it was a fairly reliable source.

It's a myth that won't die. Kind of like the stupid Covid conspiracies, liars with agendas make them up then reputable people who don't think things through get sucked in. Musk has repeated this myth, too, though I think he used the more common 6 kWh variant. It's a seductive one -- "the electricity needed to refine one gallon of gasoline is enough to drive an EV 25 miles".

But do a little arithmetic. 16 kWh per gallon is 672 kWh per bbl. As you note, we refine almost 7 billion bbl per year. So US refining would use over 4500 TWh/year. That's more than total US electricity consumption!

Also 10 buck crack spreads are pretty typical. 672 kWh would cost $50+, even at industrial rates.

 

[Sandor]

Slightly off topic. Two days ago, on 4/28, the Russians cosmonauts on the ISS unfurled the Soviet "Victory banner" in space during a space walk, the one that the victorious Soviet armies raised over Reichstag on 5/1/1945. I am curious if they are even familiar with the real history of it and how it actually represents the thievery, looting and raping done by the Soviet/Russian armies thru history.

As it happens, the NCO that helps the flag bearer had a watch on his right hand. And another watch on his left hand. Oops... They had to retouch the picture, make it darker, add smoke and remove the second watch for publication. But somehow the original survived. I guess the in new 2022 version, for the May 9 parade, the bearer should stand on a stolen washing machine?

BTW, this spacewalk was the reason for the Russians rudely not welcoming Crew-4's astronauts on their arrival; they were asleep preparing for this.

 

[petit_bateau]

Satellite photos show missiles being loaded onto Russian submarine. Dolphin pens, too.
https://www.space.com/russian-submarine-missile-loading-satellite-photo

I haven’t seen this reported elsewhere. Not surprising.

It has been on quite a lot of sites. These Kilos haven't been going into port for tea and stickies.

There are some rumours that UK tranche 1 Typhoon might get released to Ukraine. There are enough of them to be viable in logistics terns, and they are not comparable with the latest tranches (3+) so it doesn't risk too much technology. Certainly somebody is doing some rather unusual aviation training on the UK ranges. Just as with F16 that would give access to nato weapons which is important from a sustainment perspective.

 

[samppa]

Interesting viewing. Russia could easily cut off the Baltic countries from the rest of NATO. Makes a lot of sense if you look where Kalingrad is. Many people may not realize that Russia is not really a contiguous country (similar to the US with Alaska and Hawaii.)

yes, this is the one reason the baltics are really welcoming Finland and Sweden to Nato.

 

[wdolson]

Interesting viewing. Russia could easily cut off the Baltic countries from the rest of NATO. Makes a lot of sense if you look where Kalingrad is. Many people may not realize that Russia is not really a contiguous country (similar to the US with Alaska and Hawaii.)

That discontinuous piece of Russia is what used to be East Prussia, which was part of Germany in WW II.

NATO is quite aware of this weakness. Kalingrad is very vulnerable and difficult to supply in a war situation. NATO's war plan probably involves rolling up Kalingrad to secure a corridor between the Baltics and Poland. With Sweden and Finland in NATO, it makes Russia's position in St Petersburg very difficult.

Yes, a bit over 150 Wh/gal. Maybe 175 when you include self-generated electricity. That's pretty typical. Refining uses lots of low-grade heat, but very little electricity. It's a good candidate for co-gen, burn natural gas in a turbine then use the waste heat to drive your refinery processes. This Pemex cogen plant pumps 500 MW into the grid.


It's a myth that won't die. Kind of like the stupid Covid conspiracies, liars with agendas make them up then reputable people who don't think things through get sucked in. Musk has repeated this myth, too, though I think he used the more common 6 kWh variant. It's a seductive one -- "the electricity needed to refine one gallon of gasoline is enough to drive an EV 25 miles".

But do a little arithmetic. 16 kWh per gallon is 672 kWh per bbl. As you note, we refine almost 7 billion bbl per year. So US refining would use over 4500 TWh/year. That's more than total US electricity consumption!

Also 10 buck crack spreads are pretty typical. 672 kWh would cost $50+, even at industrial rates.

The oil fields around Bakersfield have been doing co-gen to make steam in secondary recovery. The wells produce a lot of water at this stage so they separate the water, use produced gas to turn the water into steam, then pump the steam back underground after running it through a generator.

You are right the electricity used would be staggering if you look at the big picture.

A delegation from the US Congress just arrived in Kyiv, including Nancy Pelosi

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520645643211091969