There's obviously some strategic ambuguity on the part of the Russians, but in a practical sense, there's a big difference between Ukraine attacking territory that is internationally recognized as Ukraine and occupied by Russia vs. sending cruise missiles into Moscow and St. Petersburg vs. sending ground troops to occupy Moscow and St. Petersburg.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
True. The international community would probably condemn Ukraine for crossing any border between Ukraine and Russia that existed before 2014 or making a large scale attack on clearly Russian territory, especially anything that puts civilians in harm's way. Post 2014 borders is more hazy with Russia making claims that little of the rest of the world recognizes.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I agree Kerch bridge is a legitimate target, the issue is Russia claiming Crimea. Plus Ukraine runs their own target list so one cannot control use once weapons are transferred.
That is a crucial legal difference between the West being in support of Ukraine vs being a direct participant in the conflict alongside Ukraine.
Harpoon and Neptune (or for that matter Exocet) would be unlikely to do significant damage to Kerch bridge on their own. They might scrape the paintwork a bit .... note, on their own.
Nice to see the EU finally get Hungary over the line. Stopping 70% oil exports now and 93% by end year is good. I see NL is now off gas, also good.
South Ossetia sham referendum now called off. Bit by bit ...
That is a crucial legal difference between the West being in support of Ukraine vs being a direct participant in the conflict alongside Ukraine.
Harpoon and Neptune (or for that matter Exocet) would be unlikely to do significant damage to Kerch bridge on their own. They might scrape the paintwork a bit .... note, on their own.
Nice to see the EU finally get Hungary over the line. Stopping 70% oil exports now and 93% by end year is good. I see NL is now off gas, also good.
South Ossetia sham referendum now called off. Bit by bit ...
Most MRLS warheads have multiple smaller munitions that deploy in the terminal stages, but the MGM-140 (which is not being supplied by the US, but is the 190 mile range missile) has an optional 500 pound warhead. The Harpoon's warhead is 488 pounds. For doing damage to a bridge the kinetic energy of the missile would contribute to the damage. An MGM-140 coming down from above would have more kinetic energy than a Harpoon skimming the surface of the sea, but the warheads are about equal weight.
The Ukrainians would almost certainly modify the Harpoons used for bridge work to be HE instead of armor piercing which is needed for a warship.
To do enough damage to put the bridge out of service would probably require several hits close together on the bridge.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Please, I know about these naval munitions, and typical ship construction. I would be very pleasantly surprised if they did much more than scratch the bridge paint. It is because of the inadequacy of these missiles in the land attack mode that TLAM was developed (and range). I'd like to think that Ukraine has some other options to address some of these targets in due course. Whether MLRS can help will depend on whether they can get the right stuff.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Sobering assessment, being that "strategic patience" is not the West's strong point
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Where now more than 3 months in...
Anyone know approximately how many Russian troops will have their current contracts expire in June?
There's also all the western companies that for some reason have been paying 3 months salary to their Russian employes. Was May the last salary or will there be a sizable salary coming at the end of June as well? Anyone know what kind of percentage of the Russian workforce this 'group' represents?
Anyone know approximately how many Russian troops will have their current contracts expire in June?
There's also all the western companies that for some reason have been paying 3 months salary to their Russian employes. Was May the last salary or will there be a sizable salary coming at the end of June as well? Anyone know what kind of percentage of the Russian workforce this 'group' represents?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Contract duration seems to be 3-years or so. If there are 200k contractors then 66k should expire each year.
But also the conscripts' period of (12-month) service come to an end, and don't these happen in two batches ?
(Sorry, this is not my area of knowledge. )
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Great summary. Ukraine is able to stop Russian advances, or at least greatly slow them. But taking the offensive and pushing dug-in troops off their land is an entirely different matter. And Russians learn from mistakes, too, so it will only get harder. I encourage people to dispense with wishful thinking about imminent Russian economic and/or military collapse.
The west's insistence on only giving Ukraine "defensive" weapons virtually ensures a stalemate. I don't understand French and German thinking on this, not surprising since I rarely understand their thinking on any subject. Anyway, it seems necessary to accommodate them in the name of NATO unity. It's a mistake IMHO -- you minimize the total cost in blood and treasure by going all-out.
Russians are in now Severodonetsk city center, btw, though still getting some resistance. This analyst thinks Putin will declare a cease-fire once he has the Donbass, and France/Germany will pressure Ukraine to accept it:
Thread by @vtchakarova on Thread Reader App
@vtchakarova: Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This i...…
threadreaderapp.com
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
.../ This analyst thinks Putin will declare a cease-fire once he has the Donbass, and France/Germany will pressure Ukraine to accept it:
Thread by @vtchakarova on Thread Reader App
@vtchakarova: Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This i...…
And that analyst also thinks that pressuring Ukraine into accepting a ceasefire would be a Gigantic mistake.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Some more from the Swedish author and blogger Lars Wilderäng (see below) that updates daily on Putler's total war:
” …/ The Ukrainian Military has restricted the information-flow since they have launched major offensives north of Kharkiv and against Kherson. The decision has been made to drive out the last Russian forces north of Kharkiv and the offensive continues against Kherson.
However, no information will be released on how things are going and maps will thus not be updated unless it is Russians who post videos of how they themselves are fleeing.
As for Sievierodonetsk, half of the city is occupied by Russians, but in that area of the city 90% consists of bombed and/or shelled demolished houses. Ukraine holds the second half.
The source is a Finnish volunteer weapons(?)instructor living in Ukraine:
Log into Facebook
/…/ Here is a claim that over one hundred Russian soldiers were killed in street fighting in Sievierodonetsk this morning. It is worth noting that the films the Russians has released of their troops in Sievierodonetsk have been showing Spetsnaz, so if this information is correct, then that would mean that it could be Russian elite units that went into the meat grinder.
Source:
/…/ Ukraine is also conducting a counterattack directed towards Izium. They have liberated parts of, or the entire Velyka Komijshuvakha village. /..."
Source:
Through (in Swedish):
cornucopia.se
” …/ The Ukrainian Military has restricted the information-flow since they have launched major offensives north of Kharkiv and against Kherson. The decision has been made to drive out the last Russian forces north of Kharkiv and the offensive continues against Kherson.
However, no information will be released on how things are going and maps will thus not be updated unless it is Russians who post videos of how they themselves are fleeing.
As for Sievierodonetsk, half of the city is occupied by Russians, but in that area of the city 90% consists of bombed and/or shelled demolished houses. Ukraine holds the second half.
The source is a Finnish volunteer weapons(?)instructor living in Ukraine:
Log into Facebook
/…/ Here is a claim that over one hundred Russian soldiers were killed in street fighting in Sievierodonetsk this morning. It is worth noting that the films the Russians has released of their troops in Sievierodonetsk have been showing Spetsnaz, so if this information is correct, then that would mean that it could be Russian elite units that went into the meat grinder.
Source:
/…/ Ukraine is also conducting a counterattack directed towards Izium. They have liberated parts of, or the entire Velyka Komijshuvakha village. /..."
Source:
Through (in Swedish):
Fortsatt försvagad rysk offensiv - strider i Sievierodonetsk - flera dödade vid bombning av skola i Sloviansk - viktiga byar befriade av Ukraina utanför Cherson
Utifrån de ryska förlustsiffrorna förblir de ryska försöken till offensiv i Donbas försvagade, även om man nu strider inne i staden Sieveirodonetsk som saknar militär och ekonomisk betydelse men kommer utropas som en stor seger i rysk propaganda om Ukraina gör en operativ reträtt. Flera civila har d
cornucopia.se
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The international community would be wrong to condemn Ukraine in that situation. Ukraine is entitled to march to Moscow, demand unconditional surrender, reparations and administer war crimes trials against Putin and whichever other leaders it would apply to.
So although the nuclear threat makes that impossible, it doesn’t change the fact that morally, that‘s what would only be fair for Ukraine.
i don’t disagree it is the wisest action for the international community to prevent Ukraine invading Russia, I just disagree with the characterization of it as CONDEMNING Ukraine.
Tiger
Active Member
In war, morals are an illusion, so the only aspect that matters, is whether it would be pragmatic.
If they joined forces with separatists from around and within Russia, it might become even pragmatic, so much so that even reaching Moscow would become unnecessary.
The longtime inaction of the Western and Central European nations also prolonged the Balkan Wars many years longer than they needed to be. So this isn't exactly unprecedented behavior on the part of the EU/NATO nations.Great summary. Ukraine is able to stop Russian advances, or at least greatly slow them. But taking the offensive and pushing dug-in troops off their land is an entirely different matter. And Russians learn from mistakes, too, so it will only get harder. I encourage people to dispense with wishful thinking about imminent Russian economic and/or military collapse.
The west's insistence on only giving Ukraine "defensive" weapons virtually ensures a stalemate. I don't understand French and German thinking on this, not surprising since I rarely understand their thinking on any subject. Anyway, it seems necessary to accommodate them in the name of NATO unity. It's a mistake IMHO -- you minimize the total cost in blood and treasure by going all-out.
Russians are in now Severodonetsk city center, btw, though still getting some resistance. This analyst thinks Putin will declare a cease-fire once he has the Donbass, and France/Germany will pressure Ukraine to accept it:
Thread by @vtchakarova on Thread Reader App
@vtchakarova: Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This i...…
Guest Opinion Essay from US President Biden in NYT - it may be paywalled, so I will excerpt some of it and summarize other points.
President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine
www.nytimes.com
“The invasion Vladimir Putin thought would last days is now in its fourth month. The Ukrainian people surprised Russia and inspired the world with their sacrifice, grit and battlefield success. The free world and many other nations, led by the United States, rallied to Ukraine’s side with unprecedented military, humanitarian and financial support.
As the war goes on, I want to be clear about the aims of the United States in these efforts.
America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.”
President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine
Opinion | President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine
The U.S. will help Ukraine be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.
“The invasion Vladimir Putin thought would last days is now in its fourth month. The Ukrainian people surprised Russia and inspired the world with their sacrifice, grit and battlefield success. The free world and many other nations, led by the United States, rallied to Ukraine’s side with unprecedented military, humanitarian and financial support.
As the war goes on, I want to be clear about the aims of the United States in these efforts.
America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.”
- Quotes Zelensky and says war will end through diplomatic efforts
- Will provide Ukraine with more advanced rocket systems and ammunition to improve position at negotiating table
- Continue cooperating with Allies on sanctions
- Provide billions more in financial assistance
- Work with partners and allies to address global food crisis
- Continue reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank. Linked this to welcoming Finland and Sweden’s application for membership
- We do not seek a war between NATO AND Russia. Won’t push for Putin’s ouster. So long as the United States nor its allies are not attacked, US will not directly engage in the conflict
- ”Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Won’t pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions
- Places blame on Russia for stalled negotiations. Calls out immorality of bombing civilian targets
- Addresses concern on nuclear weapons threat. States that the US sees no evidence Russia is moving to use them despite their saber rattling. States that any use would be met with severe consequences
- ”Freedom is not free.” Closes with commitment to stay the course with Ukraine, and states that Russia has misjudged NATO’s resolve.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So I guess now that these two cities have been taken, it's not like they can be destroyed any more. Hopefully the US advanced rockets make it easier to flip the roles and pick of some of the occupying force.
Two articles of good value from the NYT In one day..
Russian Military Is Repeating Mistakes in Eastern Ukraine, U.S. Says
www.nytimes.com
TL;DR or in my case too tired to read and synopsize. Maps almost to a tee, what @wdolson and @petit_bateau @bkp_duke and a few others have extensively documented about Russian military shortfalls, e.g., lack of a non-commissioned officer corps. A good number of direct quotes from current officials, military officers, etc. So, for some who critiqued those posting similar info here - the NYT article is a validation that the analysis posted here is correct. Timing maybe off, but identified flaws are accurate.
One new item I will note with an excerpt -
Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia in the Obama administration, said Mr. Putin was still too involved in the fight.
“We keep hearing accounts of Putin getting more involved,” said Ms. Farkas, who is now executive director of the McCain Institute. “We know that if you have presidents meddling in targeting and operational military decisions, it’s a recipe for disaster.”
Russian Military Is Repeating Mistakes in Eastern Ukraine, U.S. Says
Russian Military Is Repeating Mistakes in Eastern Ukraine, U.S. Says
President Vladimir V. Putin sent in a new commander in April, but Russian troops are still facing morale and other problems, American officials say.
TL;DR or in my case too tired to read and synopsize. Maps almost to a tee, what @wdolson and @petit_bateau @bkp_duke and a few others have extensively documented about Russian military shortfalls, e.g., lack of a non-commissioned officer corps. A good number of direct quotes from current officials, military officers, etc. So, for some who critiqued those posting similar info here - the NYT article is a validation that the analysis posted here is correct. Timing maybe off, but identified flaws are accurate.
One new item I will note with an excerpt -
Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia in the Obama administration, said Mr. Putin was still too involved in the fight.
“We keep hearing accounts of Putin getting more involved,” said Ms. Farkas, who is now executive director of the McCain Institute. “We know that if you have presidents meddling in targeting and operational military decisions, it’s a recipe for disaster.”
Mick Ryan's assessments are generally pretty good. It is true the west tends to be impatient with the long game.
Kamil Galeev has a lot of essays on Russian culture
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
One of his recent essays, he talked about how things in Russia tend to happen very quickly. It looked like things are not going to change and then suddenly they do all at once.
Kamil Galeev (linked above) has talked about this a number of times. He doesn't have any specific numbers, but he seems to think it's fairly large.
Apparently Russia has different length contracts. There are contracts as little as 6 months or 12 months. They have been trying to coerce conscripts to sign contracts so they can send them out of the country to fight. Quite a few of last year's conscripts were strong armed into signing contracts or 6 or 12 months so they could be sent to Ukraine. The conscription class from the spring of 2021 would normally have their conscription up around June 1 of this year.
Apparently there is a network of Russians who are helping kidnapped Ukrainians forced into the camps to get out of Russia
Apparently those photo ops of Putin with "regular" people. The same people keep turning up in picture after picture.
Maybe he just keeps running into a herd of Zeligs (the Woody Allen movie)?
Apparently those photo ops of Putin with "regular" people. The same people keep turning up in picture after picture.
Maybe he just keeps running into a herd of Zeligs (the Woody Allen movie)?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Crikey, no wonder Ukraine is having a go at some limited counter-offensives in other areas
