Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Crikey, no wonder Ukraine is having a go at some limited counter-offensives in other areas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531899546971914240

My partner has been following him.

35 BTGs for one small city is amazing. The entire army at the start of the war was only 170 BTGs and they committed around 125 to the war. I've read estimates that at least 17 BTGs have ceased to exist (with survivors becoming replacements for remaining BTGs). So that 35 BTGs is about 1/3 of Russia's remaining combat power. For the Russians they are learning to concentrate forces, but they have about 60-70 BTGs left to cover a very long front.

Forbes reports that Russia is planning to strip all of its training troops to create new BTGs to throw into the fight. Their equipment quality is degrading rapidly, T-62s are replacing T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s on the front lines. Those new units will likely get whatever equipment that could be scraped together.

It will keep Russia in the fight a little longer, but the ~40 BTGs will be nowhere near as strong as the BTGs at the beginning of the war. This will leave them with nobody to train new troops. A truly desperate move.

To Replenish Its Army In Ukraine, Russia Plans To Strip Its Training Units. It Can Only Do This Once.

 

[petit_bateau]

I've also seen discussions that indicate Russia is stripping Belarus of all its reserve military equipment to make up for Russian combat losses. Lots of signs that Russia is scraping the barrel as you say.

Mind you Ukraine is also taking significant losses. In the daily Kiev Independent graphic they now include the daily change in light grey, so +250 Russian tropps KIA in this recent example, which seems to be a typical daily Russian loss rate.

General Staff: Russia has lost 30,000 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on May 28 that Russia had also lost 1,330 tanks, 3,258 armored vehicles, 2,226 vehicles and fuel tanks, 628 artillery pieces, 203 multiple launch rocket systems, 93 surface-to-air missiles, 174 helicopters, 207 airplanes, 503 drones, and 13 boats.

kyivindependent.com

The exchange ration has worsened I think. Zelensky said today "The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters." which suggests an exchange ratio of about 3:1, whereas at the start of the conflict it seemed more like 6:1. This is not going to be easy.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers a day, a rare glimpse of Ukraine's losses during Russia's invasion

Ukraine has not offered much information on its troop losses during Russia's invasion, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an update on Tuesday.

news.yahoo.com

 

[bkp_duke]

Crikey, no wonder Ukraine is having a go at some limited counter-offensives in other areas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531899546971914240

That's a lot of troops for . . . tactically a city that isn't worth that much.

If I were running the invasion, I would have committed those troops to pushing through on the south and taking Odesa. A land-locked Ukraine would be far more vulnerable long-term.



The meat grinder continues . . .

 

[petit_bateau]

This may be of interest re MLRS

part 1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531012132975910912

and part 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531067601006301184

 

[bkp_duke]

I've also seen discussions that indicate Russia is stripping Belarus of all its reserve military equipment to make up for Russian combat losses. Lots of signs that Russia is scraping the barrel as you say.

Mind you Ukraine is also taking significant losses. In the daily Kiev Independent graphic they now include the daily change in light grey, so +250 Russian tropps KIA in this recent example, which seems to be a typical daily Russian loss rate.

General Staff: Russia has lost 30,000 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on May 28 that Russia had also lost 1,330 tanks, 3,258 armored vehicles, 2,226 vehicles and fuel tanks, 628 artillery pieces, 203 multiple launch rocket systems, 93 surface-to-air missiles, 174 helicopters, 207 airplanes, 503 drones, and 13 boats.

kyivindependent.com

The exchange ration has worsened I think. Zelensky said today "The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters." which suggests an exchange ratio of about 3:1, whereas at the start of the conflict it seemed more like 6:1. This is not going to be easy.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers a day, a rare glimpse of Ukraine's losses during Russia's invasion

Ukraine has not offered much information on its troop losses during Russia's invasion, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an update on Tuesday.

news.yahoo.com

Sadly, I'm not surprised by this. Not so much that the Russians are getting their act together, but the terrain in Eastern Ukraine is VERY flat and open. Harder to defend.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sadly, I'm not surprised by this. Not so much that the Russians are getting their act together, but the terrain in Eastern Ukraine is VERY flat and open. Harder to defend.

If these US MLRS arrive PDQ and in sufficient quantities and with sufficient ammo and matching drones (didn't MQ9 start arriving) then Ukraine has a fair chance. If they only come in penny packets then I fear they will get picked off one by one.

If you look at those range circles these MLRS also give the Ukraine the tools to start peeling the onion skins of the Russian IADS. That in turn would open up a lot of other options for Ukraine.

The worry as we all know is that Russia pre-empts their arrival and announces a ceasefire on current lines, and Ukraine is pressured into accepting it by the Friends Of Putin. I sincerely hope that Ukraine can withstand that type of pressure, and the West.

EDIT - and Snake Island is in range as well, so that may become relevant.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This all sounds quite expensive, both in initial cost and the likely even higher cost to rebuild the Russian army.

What do we think Russia's attitude toward OPEC will be when all of this is finished. global demand for crude oil has been officially stamped 'PEAKED', and OPEC want to keep supply cuts in place?

Do we think Russia will curtail exports and cede market share to US frackers and others? Unlikely!

 

[Doggydogworld]

This may be of interest re MLRS

part 1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531012132975910912

and part 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531067601006301184

Very informative threads. ThreadReader versions Part 1 and Part 2 for the few here who are still resisting the TwitBorg.

This BBC reporter watched the battle for SeveroDonetsk. He shows how much Ukraine needs the MLRS:

"There's a lot of artillery," says Vladimir. "Bombardments are like a nightmare, we shoot one round, they shoot 10. When our sniper is shooting, they send in a full packet of Grads on his position. So it's basically a sniper with one bullet and they send like $1,000 of artillery rounds. They really don't care how much ammunition they use."

Another quote shows something I rarely see in the western press -- despite the destruction Putin still has strong support in the Donbas:

Vladimir - the Ukrainian soldier - says the local population are "30% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian and 40% don't care". Of course, many pro-Ukrainian residents have now fled.

A few weeks ago CNN inadvertently made the same point while talking to an older couple whose house had been destroyed by Russian shelling. The reporter asked about Putin, expecting a golden "F*** Putin" clip. Instead the couple blamed the US, even while sitting in a Ukranian refugee center talking to an American news agency. Oops!!!

Remember, these areas have been fully under Ukraine's control since 1990. Support for Russia is probably much higher in Crimea and eastern Luhansk/Donetsk which have been under Russian control for eight years. That will dramatically complicate Ukraine's plan/hope/wish to take back the entire country.

 

[betstarship]

I don't have access behind the paywall, but Fortune ran a positive article on Elon Musk and Starlink for the War in Ukraine

Credit where it's due: Elon Musk and SpaceX came through for Ukraine

The delivery of satellite internet service to the war-torn country shows Musk at his finest—and offers hope for the wireless future.

fortune.com

 

[wdolson]

I've also seen discussions that indicate Russia is stripping Belarus of all its reserve military equipment to make up for Russian combat losses. Lots of signs that Russia is scraping the barrel as you say.

Mind you Ukraine is also taking significant losses. In the daily Kiev Independent graphic they now include the daily change in light grey, so +250 Russian tropps KIA in this recent example, which seems to be a typical daily Russian loss rate.

General Staff: Russia has lost 30,000 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on May 28 that Russia had also lost 1,330 tanks, 3,258 armored vehicles, 2,226 vehicles and fuel tanks, 628 artillery pieces, 203 multiple launch rocket systems, 93 surface-to-air missiles, 174 helicopters, 207 airplanes, 503 drones, and 13 boats.

kyivindependent.com

The exchange ration has worsened I think. Zelensky said today "The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters." which suggests an exchange ratio of about 3:1, whereas at the start of the conflict it seemed more like 6:1. This is not going to be easy.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers a day, a rare glimpse of Ukraine's losses during Russia's invasion

Ukraine has not offered much information on its troop losses during Russia's invasion, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an update on Tuesday.

news.yahoo.com

There is a lot of robbing Peter to pay Paul going on. That may keep the army in the field a little longer, but the backside cost is going to be high.

I'm not surprised the Ukrainian loss ratio has gone up. The nature of attrition warfare. Considering the Russians have more artillery, the fact that Russia's losses are still much higher is a sign of how imbalanced the training is between the two armies.

This may be of interest re MLRS

part 1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531012132975910912

and part 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531067601006301184

Trent Telenko had something along the same lines a week or two back. He made a bit point about how much easier it was to load and operate the US made MLRS system. He went into a bit of history and made the point that the US has always had a manpower shortage for what they wanted to do globally, so the entire military and logistics system is built to get as much done with as few people as possible. Everything has been designed from the ground up for ease of transport and ease of use.

He chastised western intelligence who had just assumed the Russians had copied the west. In reality the Russian supply system is little different from what it was in WW II. It's built around the assumption that warm bodies to do grunt work is an unlimited resource. It was a lot closer to that in the 1940s than it is today. Russia today has a worse manpower shortage than the US.

An added benefit of the American rocket systems arriving for the Ukrainians is the crews can be much smaller freeing up some crew members can be given other jobs.

If these US MLRS arrive PDQ and in sufficient quantities and with sufficient ammo and matching drones (didn't MQ9 start arriving) then Ukraine has a fair chance. If they only come in penny packets then I fear they will get picked off one by one.

If you look at those range circles these MLRS also give the Ukraine the tools to start peeling the onion skins of the Russian IADS. That in turn would open up a lot of other options for Ukraine.

The worry as we all know is that Russia pre-empts their arrival and announces a ceasefire on current lines, and Ukraine is pressured into accepting it by the Friends Of Putin. I sincerely hope that Ukraine can withstand that type of pressure, and the West.

EDIT - and Snake Island is in range as well, so that may become relevant.

The US did a fairly efficient job of bringing in the M777 howitzers when Biden gave the green light. The M777s were probably a lower learning curve than the MLRS will be, but the Ukrainians have proven themselves eager to learn. I wouldn't be surprised if the first crews were training now.

I think Ukraine is pretty united in the attitude that they aren't willing to sacrifice so much to lose another chunk of the country. That's probably non-negotiable to the majority of Ukrainians.

 

[bkp_duke]

The key is the Russian artillery. The West must provide mechanisms for Ukraine to quickly and effectively knock out these artillery launchers. That happens, and Ukrainian losses will drop considerably.

Unfortunately I just read that the HIMARS rocket system we are sending Ukraine will only be . . . . wait for it . . . FOUR launchers. In total. This administration is worthless and shameless (not saying the previous was better - just that this is not acceptable).

US to provide 4 HIMARS systems to Ukraine in latest $700M arms package - Breaking Defense

President Joe Biden first announced the transfer, writing that the system “will enable [Ukrainian forces] to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

breakingdefense.com

 

[iPlug]

Learning curve required here, but the U.S. plans to sell four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine:

EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources

 

[wdolson]

The key is the Russian artillery. The West must provide mechanisms for Ukraine to quickly and effectively knock out these artillery launchers. That happens, and Ukrainian losses will drop considerably.

Unfortunately I just read that the HIMARS rocket system we are sending Ukraine will only be . . . . wait for it . . . FOUR launchers. In total. This administration is worthless and shameless (not saying the previous was better - just that this is not acceptable).

US to provide 4 HIMARS systems to Ukraine in latest $700M arms package - Breaking Defense

President Joe Biden first announced the transfer, writing that the system “will enable [Ukrainian forces] to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

breakingdefense.com

We may see more later, but 4 is not enough.

 

[Skipdd]

The key is the Russian artillery. The West must provide mechanisms for Ukraine to quickly and effectively knock out these artillery launchers. That happens, and Ukrainian losses will drop considerably.

Unfortunately I just read that the HIMARS rocket system we are sending Ukraine will only be . . . . wait for it . . . FOUR launchers. In total. This administration is worthless and shameless (not saying the previous was better - just that this is not acceptable).

US to provide 4 HIMARS systems to Ukraine in latest $700M arms package - Breaking Defense

President Joe Biden first announced the transfer, writing that the system “will enable [Ukrainian forces] to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

breakingdefense.com

I will take it on faith from you and @wdolson that 4 is not enough. But I don’t agree with your other comment. Just 1 post down it looks like we are working on getting them superior drones, not to mention all the other munitions and assets, and the backroom maneuvering to get/keep others on board. I’d like to think there are more in the pipeline. Given what’s been done, I’m willing to give a little slack in the line to see where it goes.

 

[bkp_duke]

I will take it on faith from you and @wdolson that 4 is not enough. But I don’t agree with your other comment. Just 1 post down it looks like we are working on getting them superior drones, not to mention all the other munitions and assets, and the backroom maneuvering to get/keep others on board. I’d like to think there are more in the pipeline. Given what’s been done, I’m willing to give a little slack in the line to see where it goes.

But it's only 4 of the MQ drones as well. Every bit helps, but remember Ukraine is a HUGE country, bigger than Texas. The eastern and southern fronts cover a lot of territory. It's a start, but on a "bad" day, all 4 drones could be shot down.

 

[madodel]

F-16s Not on the Table for Ukraine, Says NATO Ambassador

An eastern flank NATO official told Air Force Magazine that alliance members had not “directly” talked about providing American aircraft to Ukraine.​

​

The official said even the discussion of transferring Soviet-era fighters like the MiG-29s used by the Ukrainian Air Force is all but dead.​

​

“There is less talk about the supply of post-Warsaw Pact airframes,” the official said. “There are other ways to sustain the [Ukrainian] Air Force.”​

 

[stopcrazypp]

F-16s Not on the Table for Ukraine, Says NATO Ambassador

An eastern flank NATO official told Air Force Magazine that alliance members had not “directly” talked about providing American aircraft to Ukraine.​

​

The official said even the discussion of transferring Soviet-era fighters like the MiG-29s used by the Ukrainian Air Force is all but dead.​

​

“There is less talk about the supply of post-Warsaw Pact airframes,” the official said. “There are other ways to sustain the [Ukrainian] Air Force.”​

From previous posts long ago, the gist I get is that NATO is supplying replacement parts (might even be cannibalized from the planes that originally were on offer). This is an easier way to get it into the country covertly.

 

[petit_bateau]

It looks like 4 complete sets. I suspect that is why it is 4 MQ-9 to do the recce, 4 MLRS launchers to do the firing, and probably all the accompanying stuff to run four fully independent teams with their own logistics and intel etc. That does in fact roughly cover the active front from Kharkiv in the north to Kherson in the south. Hopefully there will be plenty of ammunition .....

Remember these MLRS aren't going to be operating in isolation. The other stuff is still there to partner them.

There are snippets of info out there which suggest that the last couple of months Ukraine has been training on these MLRS and MQ9 so as to be able to hit the ground running. Also a software patch may have been created to be able to link the US/NATO systems that feed the MLRS targetting info into the Ukraine bespoke targetting application (which by all accounts is very good). That would seem to make sense.

And perhaps some other NATO countries can chip in with a few of their MLRS to add a bit more weight.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Today one of the two tabloids in Sweden claims that Putler's embassy in Stockholm doesn't have money to pay for the ambassador's car. And that they also haven't paid the fee for emptying of garbage containers (or whatever it's called). They are also lacking money to pay salaries to some extent. I don't know to what extent though... It's paywalled, but that is allegedly what it says...

Source (in Swedish):

Putins diplomater i akut penningknipa

Rysslands ambassad vädjar om att deras akuta penningproblem ska hemlighållas för ”kvällstidningar”. Det framgår av ambassadens skriftväxling med Kommerskollegium när diplomaterna vill ha tillgång till pengar som frysts på grund EU:s sanktioner mot Ryssland. Pengarna behövs bland annat till att...

www.expressen.se

 

[wdolson]

It looks like 4 complete sets. I suspect that is why it is 4 MQ-9 to do the recce, 4 MLRS launchers to do the firing, and probably all the accompanying stuff to run four fully independent teams with their own logistics and intel etc. That does in fact roughly cover the active front from Kharkiv in the north to Kherson in the south. Hopefully there will be plenty of ammunition .....

Remember these MLRS aren't going to be operating in isolation. The other stuff is still there to partner them.

There are snippets of info out there which suggest that the last couple of months Ukraine has been training on these MLRS and MQ9 so as to be able to hit the ground running. Also a software patch may have been created to be able to link the US/NATO systems that feed the MLRS targetting info into the Ukraine bespoke targetting application (which by all accounts is very good). That would seem to make sense.

And perhaps some other NATO countries can chip in with a few of their MLRS to add a bit more weight.

The most recent statements I have seen say that the US is sending 4 HIMARS initially to Ukraine. Such as this story
Biden announces new $700 million in military aid for Ukraine

That implies this is the first phase of a larger transfer. Apparently the US was concerned the Ukrainians were going to use them against targets in Russia and there were concerns the Russians could use that as an excuse to escalate the war. Which is a valid concern. Russia keeps making threats of going nuclear and there are people in Russia calling for it. We hope cooler heads will continue to prevail, but Putin's behavior is not the most rational lately.

There is a story in the Financial Times about how the sanctions are hitting Russia's electronics world. I hit a paywall on two desktop machines, but got right in with my iPad
Subscribe to read | Financial Times