Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

On the Ukrainian offensive to retake Kherson, would caution the most optimistic against any expectations for a sort of blitzkrieg quick win there.

Ukraine has seized upon opportunities to attack weakness on the areas of Russian front lines there. The Russians are increasingly becoming more resource "islanded" on Dnipro's west bank.

Ukraine seems to understand their position is best served by a continued slow grinding down of the enemy. Russia's military capability shows to be progressively weakening over the last 6 months counterposed with the gradual strengthening of Ukrainian's with continued Western support.

 

[iPlug]

Russian leader died today.

Not the one whose worldly exit would be celebrated, rather the respectable Gorbachev.

Mikhail Gorbachev, who ended the Cold War, dies aged 91 -agencies

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564718381814763524

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564720349706698752

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564725458889048064

 

[madodel]

Both of you are correct.

USA consumption has dropped nicely, but China's consumption increase of coal during that same time-period has far outstripped what was saved in the USA.

And frankly, part of it is our (USA's) fault. We've outsourced so much of our industrial capacity to China, that we've really only shifted the CO2 production to another part of the globe, not reigned it in.

Sadly that was probably one of the main reasons for shifting production to low regulation/ corrupt states that would ignore pollution. Now we are paying the price because the jobs were exported but the greenhouse gases are global.

 

[wdolson]

There's also the UK, where use fell even faster, which I'd have expected you to know.

A lot of the shift in the USA and UK was increased use of natural gas.
But a sizable chunk was increased use of renewables, and global annual renewable deployment rate has continued to increase.
Expected global PV manufacturing is expected to be 1TW _per year_ by 2030. End of 2021 total nameplate was under 900GW.
Offshore wind strike prices keep falling, and floating wind hasn't yet been deployed in significant volume.

This isn't going to be like the oil and gas fuel transition. It'll start biting and then keep biting harder.

Quite a few power plants were built for dual fuel. They could take coal or NG. With North American NG dirt cheap and coal actually costing more, most of those plants have been burning NG for the last few years.

Renewables have the disadvantage of being a diverse energy source.
https://docs.wind-watch.org/US-footprints-Strata-2017.pdf

Page 1 after the table of contents shows the number of acres needed per MW of energy produced. Coal, NG, and nuclear all require about 12+ acres per MW. Solar is 43 and wind is 70. Storage of renewables is coming online now. Companies like ESS have cheap batteries for this, but it's going to require building TWH of batteries for this.

It's going to take time. As @petit_bateau pointed out, we are near the begging of an absolutely staggering scale up of new industries, and we are going to need to set aside more land for this. The US has a lot of unused land in the west, but this is a seriously difficult problem for countries without a lot of extra land.

 

[dm28997]

Quite a few power plants were built for dual fuel. They could take coal or NG. With North American NG dirt cheap and coal actually costing more, most of those plants have been burning NG for the last few years.

Renewables have the disadvantage of being a diverse energy source.
https://docs.wind-watch.org/US-footprints-Strata-2017.pdf

Page 1 after the table of contents shows the number of acres needed per MW of energy produced. Coal, NG, and nuclear all require about 12+ acres per MW. Solar is 43 and wind is 70. Storage of renewables is coming online now. Companies like ESS have cheap batteries for this, but it's going to require building TWH of batteries for this.

It's going to take time. As @petit_bateau pointed out, we are near the begging of an absolutely staggering scale up of new industries, and we are going to need to set aside more land for this. The US has a lot of unused land in the west, but this is a seriously difficult problem for countries without a lot of extra land.

You don't need land to scale up solar production.
100 million homes with 20 kWh photovoltaic array and production at 75 percent would make roughly 1.5 Terra watts. Add battery storage and it's game over. Note this is a rough calculation which could be under or over estimate
Virtual power with powerwalls is working now. Decentralized power looks like the future.

 

[MC3OZ]

Both of you are correct.

USA consumption has dropped nicely, but China's consumption increase of coal during that same time-period has far outstripped what was saved in the USA.

And frankly, part of it is our (USA's) fault. We've outsourced so much of our industrial capacity to China, that we've really only shifted the CO2 production to another part of the globe, not reigned it in.

Just for balance:-

China’s Clean Energy Growth Outlook for 2022 Keeps Getting Bigger

A leading think tank sees China adding 25% more wind turbines and solar panels than last year’s record.

www.bloomberg.com

China is set to install a record 156 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar panels this year, said Yi Yuechun, vice dean of the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, a think tank that supports the National Energy Administration. That would be a 25% jump from the previous record set last year, according to BloombergNEF data.

 

[JRP3]

You don't need land to scale up solar production.
100 million homes with 20 kWh photovoltaic array and production at 75 percent would make roughly 1.5 Terra watts. Add battery storage and it's game over.

You can also cover existing parking lots which won't require additional land.

 

[RobStark]

Densely populated UK has 2% of its land covered in golf courses and .1% covered in solar panels.

IF the British Parliament decided to reverse those numbers then the UK would have all the energy it needs from solar.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ironic, I just returned from a "Celebration of Life" for the father of one of my Army brothers. Yes, we spoke Russian (the only phrase we ever learned).

Mikhail Gorbachev, Soviet leader who ended Cold War, dead at age 91 | CBC News "The National" (2 hrs ago)

 

[wdolson]

You don't need land to scale up solar production.
100 million homes with 20 kWh photovoltaic array and production at 75 percent would make roughly 1.5 Terra watts. Add battery storage and it's game over. Note this is a rough calculation which could be under or over estimate
Virtual power with powerwalls is working now. Decentralized power looks like the future.

There are 68 million single family homes in the US, to put solar panels on enough homes to be 100 million would require building 32 million more. Additionally solar is not cost effective in some parts of the country. I looked at getting solar and it had a 30 year ROI. This time of year is very sunny, but cloud cover is common 6-8 months out of the year here.

Powerwalls as they are now are not the most cost effective way of storing energy in a stationary situation. Cheaper, lower density batteries are the answer for stationary power in all but the most space restrained situations.

You can also cover existing parking lots which won't require additional land.

It's not a bad idea that will meet a little of the need but only where solar is practical and somebody needs to fork over a ton of money to do it. Doing so would draw off workers from other projects like installing EV chargers. At the current rate of construction commercial electricians are currently maxxed out installing chargers. My neighbor who is in management at one of the biggest around here said at least 70% of their business is installing chargers right now. The only thing slowing them down right now is a shortage of electricians.

We don't have the people to do a lot of this renewable work right now and there are no signs of improvement of the horizon. Workers can't be taken from other industries because they have a labor shortage too.

 

[petit_bateau]

There's also the UK, where use fell even faster, which I'd have expected you to know.

A lot of the shift in the USA and UK was increased use of natural gas.
But a sizable chunk was increased use of renewables, and global annual renewable deployment rate has continued to increase.
Expected global PV manufacturing is expected to be 1TW _per year_ by 2030. End of 2021 total nameplate was under 900GW.
Offshore wind strike prices keep falling, and floating wind hasn't yet been deployed in significant volume.

This isn't going to be like the oil and gas fuel transition. It'll start biting and then keep biting harder.

I'm afraid the UK was an even worse culprit than the USA when it came to offshoring fossils pollution, primarily to China. The UK's CO2 reductions are built on the twin pillars of the dash for gas, and offshoring all heavy industry and most light industry. My pithy remark criticising USA-blinkerdom is an even sharper tone when applied to the UK.

(By the way the 'dual fuel' firing some talk about is generally a oil/gas burner assembly; very seldom the ability to switch across from either of these fuels to coal. Just getting gas/liquid dual firing to work reliably was enough challenge on the GTs I've run. Both US and UK GTs that is.)

I too hope positive economics causes the global renewables transition to go faster. In due course the pollution offshoring issue will be dealt with by CBAMs of all shapes & sizes, which is a sort of negative economics (stick, rather than carrot). But that dispriritingly does not mean that industry will inevitably return to where it once was, and in particular the UK is likely now in an unrecoverable position in that regard.

If the Ukraine wins through (as I hope they do) then the EU will in time have in Ukraine a heavy industry cluster to rival that of the Rhineland/Ruhr. I don't expect it to be running on coal or natural gas for much longer. I very much hope that whoever has their hands on the mines(explosives) rigged by the Russians on the nuclear facilities is sensible enough not to detonate them on either the primary side, or the secondary circuit, or even much of the auxiliaries (which last are sadly already being attrited). Both sides are likely going to be holding a lot of hostages quite soon.

 

[JRP3]

It's not a bad idea that will meet a little of the need but only where solar is practical and somebody needs to fork over a ton of money to do it.

Existing parking spaces could handle all needs.

800 million spaces and nowhere to park? — Per Square Mile

It’s sad but true. Americans likely have 800 million parking spaces at their disposal and many of us (myself included) have driven round and round the

persquaremile.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

A Journalist that allegedly has been verified as working for the British daily national newspaper The Times:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564916144657637377

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

110 000 dödade civila i Mariupol - oljedepå i brand på Krym - explosioner i ryska Belgorod - allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare i EU - stora ryska förluster vid fronten - locket på för media om offensiven

Nya siffror från bårhusen i Mariupol visar på 110 000 dödade civila i staden. En oljedepå har fattat eld på ockuperade Krym och det hörs explosioner i ryska Belgorod. Det sker allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare inom EU, vilket sätter fingret på behovet av att stoppa turistvisum. Ryssland tar forts

cornucopia.se

 

[dm28997]

There are 68 million single family homes in the US

Number of U.S. housing units 2021 | Statista

The number of housing units in the United States has been growing year on year and in 2021, there were approximately 142 million housing units in the United States.

www.statista.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Let's steer the discussion back from renewables (although it is somewhat related) to the subject of this thread: the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Allegedly:
The Military Dictator's so called "volunteers" receiving a "blessing" from that country's "Orthodox Church":

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564955181233610752

Credit again goes to (in Swedish):

110 000 dödade civila i Mariupol - oljedepå i brand på Krym - explosioner i ryska Belgorod - allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare i EU - stora ryska förluster vid fronten - locket på för media om offensiven

Nya siffror från bårhusen i Mariupol visar på 110 000 dödade civila i staden. En oljedepå har fattat eld på ockuperade Krym och det hörs explosioner i ryska Belgorod. Det sker allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare inom EU, vilket sätter fingret på behovet av att stoppa turistvisum. Ryssland tar forts

cornucopia.se

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Allegedly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564914424707796992

Credit goes to:

110 000 dödade civila i Mariupol - oljedepå i brand på Krym - explosioner i ryska Belgorod - allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare i EU - stora ryska förluster vid fronten - locket på för media om offensiven

Nya siffror från bårhusen i Mariupol visar på 110 000 dödade civila i staden. En oljedepå har fattat eld på ockuperade Krym och det hörs explosioner i ryska Belgorod. Det sker allt fler ryska angrepp på ukrainare inom EU, vilket sätter fingret på behovet av att stoppa turistvisum. Ryssland tar forts

cornucopia.se

 

[Doggydogworld]

Coal's decline has only been relative. In absolute terms it has been growing all the way to peak coal consumption in 2013. What needs to be achieved in terms of the growth of renewables over the next 20-years is an unprecedented challenge. I think we (here) all agree the Ukrainians are fighting hard on our behalf for that challenge to be taken on, whereas Putin and his many fellow-travellers are fighting for fossil pollution in all its forms to continue.

View attachment 847029

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf

and

View attachment 847030

World Coal Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics showing amount of coal left in the world based on proven coal reserves and current global consumption levels. World Coal Reserves and consumption by year and by country, with charts and list.

www.worldometers.info

Unfortunately, coal usage may set a new record this year, matching or even beating 2013.

Quite a few power plants were built for dual fuel. They could take coal or NG. With North American NG dirt cheap and coal actually costing more, most of those plants have been burning NG for the last few years.

(By the way the 'dual fuel' firing some talk about is generally a oil/gas burner assembly; very seldom the ability to switch across from either of these fuels to coal. Just getting gas/liquid dual firing to work reliably was enough challenge on the GTs I've run. Both US and UK GTs that is.)

It's true dual-fuel usually means NG/oil. But Duke and others did some coal plant retrofits to burn cheap NG alongside or in a few cases instead of coal. WIth higher NG prices they've been shifting back toward 100% coal.

Page 1 after the table of contents shows the number of acres needed per MW of energy produced. Coal, NG, and nuclear all require about 12+ acres per MW. Solar is 43 and wind is 70.

Wind actually uses very little land, since they farm/graze in the 99+% of space that's between turbines. Solar does use land, but works best in vast empty deserts anyway. There is a little solar co-farming/grazing going on in more fertile areas, driven more by curiosity than necessity as there is usually empty land nearby. Rooftop is possible in dense areas, but adds cost. The subsidy alone for residential rooftop in the US can exceed the entire per kWh cost of a large-scale installation.

Storage of renewables is coming online now. Companies like ESS have cheap batteries for this, but it's going to require building TWH of batteries for this.

Battery storage adds a dime a kWh. More if they cycle less than ~250 times/year. Costs are coming down a little with LFP., but it still makes 10x as much sense to intelligently handle intermittency with a huge fleet of EVs rather than brute force stationary batteries.

Densely populated UK has 2% of its land covered in golf courses and .1% covered in solar panels. IF the British Parliament decided to reverse those numbers then the UK would have all the energy it needs from solar.

Not in winter.....

Importing solar from sunny Africa is a long-held dream, but is that really better than depending on Russia for natural gas? At least you can store NG and import it from elsewhere. You're really screwed if an African Putin flips the switch.

 

[petit_bateau]

The International Atomic Energy Agency mission into Russian-controlled territory, which comprises representatives from countries deemed neutral by both sides, was reportedly intended to last four days. But on Wednesday, the Russian-occupying authorities said the IAEA would be given access for one day. They also said the mission would be expected to join the queue of civilians

UN nuclear team in Zaporizhzhia limbo as Russia narrows access to plant

IAEA experts wait to inspect frontline facility while Russia says they must join a queue

www.theguardian.com