Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, according to newly declassified American intelligence, a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states for military supplies.​

​

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html

 

[wdolson]

Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, according to newly declassified American intelligence, a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states for military supplies.​

​

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html

If they are buying artillery shells that's an indication their supplies are running low. Or at least their reliable ammunition is running low.

 

[alloverx]

Germany to keep 2/3 nuclear plants in reserve over this winter thru April.
Greenpeace wants more coal-burning plants instead.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A couple of relevant things I picked up whilst doing the daily energy news

First, Russia carries on bullying behaviour...

... including their own Oilygarchs:

RUSSIA - Oil & Gas OLIGARCHS DYING in Series of Russian SUICIDES & MURDERS From Start of Ukraine War

 

[petit_bateau]

This positional update with maps bears reading as it is giving a pretty good indication of where the Ukraine thrusts in Kherson are taking significant ground with two thrusts achieving progress in NE (Novovoskresenske etc) and NW (Kostromka etc) of Kherson. Also a couple of indications of Ukraine taking offensive stance in the Donetsk though not yet enough to draw firmer conclusions. The Russian loss rate has noticeably increased.

Invasion Day 194 – Summary

The summary of the 194th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 5th September 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: Ukrainian Army continues the offensive operation in Kherson Oblast and is slowly…

militaryland.net

 

[petit_bateau]

OneWeb loses 36 satellites due to Russian invasion

OneWeb takes $229m hit from satellites retained by Russia

Launch postponements also a part of the writeoff as company pins hopes on SpaceX

www.theregister.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why not a Gigafactory in Ukraine? It would certainly get press! Perhaps out near the Polish border so the supplier base could reach over there?

IAEA team details damage to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; Zelenskyy rings NYSE opening bell

Russian officials continue to threaten to cut Russia's energy supplies to the West.

www.cnbc.com

 

[kabin]

If they are buying artillery shells that's an indication their supplies are running low. Or at least their reliable ammunition is running low.

Or an indication they are in it for the long haul.

 

[JRP3]

Why not a Gigafactory in Ukraine?

Yeeaahhh...let's wait until the war is over.

 

[petit_bateau]

Couple of helpful facts sheets. And rumours of a couple of other significant UKR advances, one near Kherson, another near Izium.

confirmed today 20 x Gepards now delivered, 10x more following

Fact Sheet On German Military Aid To Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Flawed But Commendable: Germany’s Ringtausch Programme

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[wdolson]

This positional update with maps bears reading as it is giving a pretty good indication of where the Ukraine thrusts in Kherson are taking significant ground with two thrusts achieving progress in NE (Novovoskresenske etc) and NW (Kostromka etc) of Kherson. Also a couple of indications of Ukraine taking offensive stance in the Donetsk though not yet enough to draw firmer conclusions. The Russian loss rate has noticeably increased.

Invasion Day 194 – Summary

The summary of the 194th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 5th September 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: Ukrainian Army continues the offensive operation in Kherson Oblast and is slowly…

militaryland.net

The Ukrainians appear to be most intent on causing the most Russian casualties than taking a lot of ground right now. They may have a largish offensive capable unit in the last stages of preparation for action. With the units they have if they keep up pressure and inflict as much damage as possible while keeping losses low, that ties down Russian units in place as well as run up attritional losses. The one area we aren't hearing much about an offensive is the place where I would unleash a blitzkrieg offensive if I had the forces, just east of the Dnipro.

Why not a Gigafactory in Ukraine? It would certainly get press! Perhaps out near the Polish border so the supplier base could reach over there?

IAEA team details damage to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; Zelenskyy rings NYSE opening bell

Russian officials continue to threaten to cut Russia's energy supplies to the West.

www.cnbc.com

After the Russian threat is gone, the smart thing to do would be to turn Ukraine into the cheap manufacturing center for Europe. They could easily follow the track of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

Or an indication they are in it for the long haul.

An indication they were in it for the long haul would be a massive expansion of their military industrial base, starting with their chemical industry. It does appear they switched their chemical production from fertilizer to explosives, but there is no indication any new chemical plants are being built. Their biggest chemical plant burned down in April or May.

Buying ammunition from much smaller countries with no industrial capacity is a desperation move.

Ukraine id dependent on the west for ammunition, but they admit to being desperate and their supply pool is vast with some of the biggest arsenals on Earth giving them ammunition. Ukraine is also fighting a war of necessity, this is an optional war for Russia. Except for political fallout on Putin personally, Russia would be much better off if they pulled out the army and went home.

 

[iPlug]

Looks like we will continue to have Europe's back for LNG as they accelerate the transition to renewables over the coming years. I don't believe this accounts for any expansion of existing export terminals, so suspect export capacity will grow even more rapidly than this.

U.S. LNG export capacity to grow as three additional projects begin construction

 

[petit_bateau]

COBRA counter battery radar arriving courtesy Germany

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567284811319967744

"Cobra will be extremly helpful, it can detect in a radius of ~100 km up to 40 counter artillery system during a single scan, transfer positions directly to MLRS or Pzh2000& hit all within minutes. Would be correspond well with vulcano ammunition what hit targets up to 70 km"

Kherson and Izium (see Balakliya) updates, which means Russia has very little chance of moving forces/reserves between fronts

Thread by @HeliosRunner on Thread Reader App

@HeliosRunner: 1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fully going...…

threadreaderapp.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567297092900503552

Ukraine Strikes Russian Armed Forces With Kvitnik Semi-active Laser Guided Ammunition - MilitaryLeak.COM

Ukraine's artillery is using the Kvitnik 152 mm semi-active laser guided ammunition to hit russian armed forces. Over the past few decades, Ukraine has made a

militaryleak.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567291552111755265

 

[Dangerous Fish]

This is an interesting take on the recent 'leak' that North Korea might be supplying Russia with artillery and rockets.

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: Since everyone is talking about this 'controlled leak' to NY Time of US intelligence that Russia is buying DPRK artillery munitions. It's time for a logistics thread 🧵 This is conditionally good news ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[wdolson]

Latest Perin is on the political will in Ukraine as well as the rest of the world. Russia's only hope is to weaken the will of the rest of the world to support Ukraine and in that goal, they are failing badly

 

[petit_bateau]

More on the Izium push

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567434170460160003

UKR may be on video for a daylight shootdown of RU Su25, see (and listen) for the 5sec launch point from trailing a/c : it is not a SAM imho; shows how RU definitely are on back foot in the air above the LOC. Plenty of evidence of similar greater ability to put a/c in the sky above LOC by UKR forces vs RF forces widespread. The Izium report above notes RF air caution, and the Kherson has plenty of evidence of good UKR air strikes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567424626157883392

helpful SWJ

Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), August 23, 2022; a…

realcontextnews.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Allegedly...

Note that this claims to be valid for AUG 28, so before the current UKR offensive – an offensive that has killed how many of the Military Dictators henchmen – some more than 5,000?...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567446119596040192

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

Ukrainsk offensiv även på Charkivfronten - högsta ryska förlusterna än så länge under offensiven - inga ryska anfall

Ukrainas offensiv har nu utökats till att inte bara vara på södra fronten och Chersonfronten, utan även på Charkivfronten. Ryssland fortsätter ta extrema förluster och gårdagen innebar de största ryska förlusterna under offensiven hittills. Inga ryska motanfall är rapporterade.

cornucopia.se

 

[navguy12]

COBRA counter battery radar arriving courtesy Germany

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567284811319967744

"Cobra will be extremly helpful, it can detect in a radius of ~100 km up to 40 counter artillery system during a single scan, transfer positions directly to MLRS or Pzh2000& hit all within minutes. Would be correspond well with vulcano ammunition what hit targets up to 70 km"

Kherson and Izium (see Balakliya) updates, which means Russia has very little chance of moving forces/reserves between fronts

Thread by @HeliosRunner on Thread Reader App

@HeliosRunner: 1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fully going...…

threadreaderapp.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567297092900503552

Ukraine Strikes Russian Armed Forces With Kvitnik Semi-active Laser Guided Ammunition - MilitaryLeak.COM

Ukraine's artillery is using the Kvitnik 152 mm semi-active laser guided ammunition to hit russian armed forces. Over the past few decades, Ukraine has made a

militaryleak.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567291552111755265

Interesting that the desperate Russian chap in the Twitter exchange calls for tactical nucs…

 

[madodel]

Interesting that the desperate Russian chap in the Twitter exchange calls for tactical nucs…

That of course is the problem with winning against a psychopath. Everything imaginable is on the table for them to stave off ultimate defeat. If Putin is going down he will take Europe and the World with him if he can.

 

[Skipdd]

That of course is the problem with winning against a psychopath. Everything imaginable is on the table for them to stave off ultimate defeat. If Putin is going down he will take Europe and the World with him if he can.

Hence the weekend B-52 flyover, (post #5,027) where 2 B-52s with escorts flew over Sweden towards Latvia and Estonia, but were initially thought to be pointed toward St Petersburg and Moscow. I don’t think the West will standby if any use of tactical nukes occurs. And further, strong messaging is being deployed.