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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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No one seems to be firing back in any of these videos.
There is return fire in some of those videos. Also there are a lot of other videos out there where the fire is defnitely in both directions with pretty unpleasant consequences for everyone. This includes engagements that are definitely occurring in the last 24h, i.e. opsec control of some of this seems to have broken down to an extent. I'd rather not come across to any links to such videos here. It is not ideal finding them anywhere quite frankly.

If you want to have a read of how things are on the Russian side here is one, that of the paratrooper who has since gone public about his concerns. This is definitely genuine. It is rather long, and contains viewpoints that will create future issues.

 
Prospects

Finally got a chance to read through the prospects article. It makes some assumptions about Russia that I think have been proven false. Russia is using S-300s for surface to surface missile strikes now because it appears they have exhausted pretty much everything else in the inventory. Before the war their production of precision missiles was measured in 100-200 a year and production of most has probably halted due to a lack of parts.

The Russian's claim of huge reserves of weapons was partially true, they have kept firing dumb munitions in large volumes, but they are vastly out shooting production and the day to pay the piper is coming.

They are so desperate for weapons the Ukrainians overran a KS-19 battery a few days ago. This is a museum piece with the last ones made in 1957. They were retired in the 1980s and a few have been used far avalanche control. These are probably the avalanche control guns.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

The Russians are good at fronting, They have been doing it since the 1940s. They are struggling to put up the front they are still the #2 army in the world, but reality is catching up with them.

The Ukrainians are setting up a Kesselschlacht (kettle battle) near Izium and the Russians are reacting glacially. This is a situation akin to the situation the US and Commonwealth faced in the Ardennes in 1944, but the Russians are not really doing much to stop the hemorrhaging. With the highest level HQ in the theater captured, the Russians appear paralyzed.

Between Izium and Kherson the Russians are probably going to lose a staggering number of troops and equipment. There personnel supply is a tiny fraction of what they could bring under arms in the 1940s, but even if they did conscript every military age male in Russia, they may struggle to equip them with even the most basic equipment and they stripped their training organizations so they have no way to adequately train the new soldiers.

If Russia decides to be stubborn they could suffer a fate akin to Paraguay in the Paraguayan War in the 1860s. 69% of Paraguay's population died and 90% of the dead were male. The country has never recovered.
Paraguayan War - Wikipedia

Russia is destroying their future by continuing this war. As the war grinds on it will be increasingly difficult to keep the army in the field. This is due to manpower shortages, reserve equipment shortages, and soon ammunition shortages. Because the Russians are so good at fronting they are going to be like a professional athlete who keeps playing thanks to drugs masking their pain until they have a massive career ending injury that leaves them crippled.

There is return fire in some of those videos. Also there are a lot of other videos out there where the fire is defnitely in both directions with pretty unpleasant consequences for everyone. This includes engagements that are definitely occurring in the last 24h, i.e. opsec control of some of this seems to have broken down to an extent. I'd rather not come across to any links to such videos here. It is not ideal finding them anywhere quite frankly.

If you want to have a read of how things are on the Russian side here is one, that of the paratrooper who has since gone public about his concerns. This is definitely genuine. It is rather long, and contains viewpoints that will create future issues.


I read ChrisO's series of articles. Excellent information there.
 
I've just read this re the captured senior officer. However what I have not seen is any evidence that the actual full size HQ got captured intact, and b) that it contained any/all of the records that the author is assuming are there. Maybe it does (if so, great), but let's not get ahead of ourselves.



Here is the latest map of the thrust in the north. Wow.

 
May also be progress by Ukraine near Lyman, though I have not seen much in the way of confirmation.

1662716730247.png
 
From Yesterday:
Hodges [who served as commanding general, United States Army Europe (My edit.)] highlights four important strategic considerations Russia made in advance of their invasion that now appear to be miscalculations. As a result, he believes that by the end of 2022, Ukrainian forces will push the Russian military back to the 23 February line [IF the Democratic West follows through with the promised weapon deliveries (My edit and underline.)]. /...
 
Seems awfully fast, but Kyiv Independent reports Kupianskalready captured. Russians must be in retreat in this area, not putting up much of a fight.

Yeah, there's no way Russia simply walks away from Kupyansk. It's a crucial logistics hub for the entire front around Izium. It even supplies Severodonetsk and Lysychansk which they fought so bitterly to take a couple months ago. They have to defend Kupyansk.

Kupyansk was far enough behind the front that it may not have much in the way of pre-existing defenses. If the situation is really bad I could see Russia pulling back across the Oskil. The bulk of the rail lines are on the east side. But one of two key rail routes into Russia (the one to Belgorod) runs through the west side of the city. Sacrificing that would be very painful, and a sign of true desperation. And even the rails on the east side of the Oskil will be under constant attack if Ukraine controls the west bank.

This offensive has been breathtaking. Let's hope Ukraine isn't over-extending themselves.
 
Yeah, there's no way Russia simply walks away from Kupyansk. It's a crucial logistics hub for the entire front around Izium. It even supplies Severodonetsk and Lysychansk which they fought so bitterly to take a couple months ago. They have to defend Kupyansk.

Kupyansk was far enough behind the front that it may not have much in the way of pre-existing defenses. If the situation is really bad I could see Russia pulling back across the Oskil. The bulk of the rail lines are on the east side. But one of two key rail routes into Russia (the one to Belgorod) runs through the west side of the city. Sacrificing that would be very painful, and a sign of true desperation. And even the rails on the east side of the Oskil will be under constant attack if Ukraine controls the west bank.

This offensive has been breathtaking. Let's hope Ukraine isn't over-extending themselves.

Looks like the Russians made a rookie mistake and don't have any reserves anyplace close to Izium. The front could collapse and their only play is to move troops back from the south.

Without reserves in theater the Ukrainians will dictate the terms of battle until the Russians manage to get reinforcements into the area. The front is likely going to have Kupyansk in the rear area by the time the Russians have any new troops in the area and there will be new crisis like trying to break into the Izium pocket to worry about.
 
There is return fire in some of those videos. Also there are a lot of other videos out there where the fire is defnitely in both directions with pretty unpleasant consequences for everyone. This includes engagements that are definitely occurring in the last 24h, i.e. opsec control of some of this seems to have broken down to an extent. I'd rather not come across to any links to such videos here. It is not ideal finding them anywhere quite frankly.

If you want to have a read of how things are on the Russian side here is one, that of the paratrooper who has since gone public about his concerns. This is definitely genuine. It is rather long, and contains viewpoints that will create future issues.

Thanks for the link - I read thoroughly for 30 minutes, then started skimming, but quite interesting.

I think that in my anger at Putin for this terrible war, it's still important not to hate Russians themselves - all humans act on the info they have. He talks about the difficult position the military is in. For pages and pages he speaks against Russian military incompetence, but does point out that he personally knew (and constantly was around) the guy who Western media said got permission from his wife to rape women - pointed out it was a cleverly cut propaganda piece (he essentially says it was gallows humour - there was neither opportunity for this guy to rape anyone, and he states the unit would have shot his leg first if anyone tried to). Here's his conclusion:

"The media on both sides of us is just pouring lies to encourage us to kill each other as fiercely as possible, and we, like fools, believe in everything and rejoice in a new portion of *sugar* that is thrown at us like fans. Again, of course I can't vouch for the entire army. As no one adequate from the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to vouch for all his own. Does anyone have any doubts that in the Armed Forces of Ukraine there were also those who did not deny themselves moroderism, considering it their trophies? The worst thing is that under artillery fire,

aviation and missiles are dying children! Our Slavic children! There are very few of us Slavs in the world! But do you believe that an evil Russian soldier is deliberately pointing guns at them? He was given coordinates, he has no idea where he was shooting, he was told that there was an enemy, of course this is not an excuse, but you should not make all the survivors and killers. The main enemy of both Russians and Ukrainians is propaganda, it only further fuels hatred in people.

I do not want to justify anyone, but if we do not understand that our madness with a veil of hatred in front of us from the crazy propaganda of the destruction of each other, if we Slavs do not calm down and do not sober up from hatred, then we simply will not be, not Ukraine, not Russia.

Hatred and murder will destroy us, we must reach out to each other."

This is so important to keep it mind. Us humans have huge challenges ahead of us - wars like these hurt us all when we should instead use our resources to tackle hunger & poverty, climate shifts, disease, etc etc.

This is why I'm a Tesla and solar fan - a guy like Musk, as socially obnoxious as he can be, is trying to help all of us, not divide us in order to control us. And energy independence & decentralization reduces the power of oligarchs (of all stripes) - dictators somehow survive if the West relies on their oil/gas/$$$...

Anyway, hopefully this war can end soon - for the sake of all humans.
 
The difference is every Russian soldier knows they are attacking another country while the Ukrainians are defending theirs.
And yet, propaganda told them they were freeing Ukraine from Nazis...I think it was petit_bateau (or another European, sorry, many months ago) who shared some of the propaganda and explained that "Nazi" doesn't mean to them what it means to us.
Arguably, it takes an inexcusable level of stupidity and gullibility to fall for that, but <insert forbidden political rants against QAnon, anti-vax, climate change deniers, etc.>.
 
And yet, propaganda told them they were freeing Ukraine from Nazis...I think it was petit_bateau (or another European, sorry, many months ago) who shared some of the propaganda and explained that "Nazi" doesn't mean to them what it means to us.
Arguably, it takes an inexcusable level of stupidity and gullibility to fall for that, but <insert forbidden political rants against QAnon, anti-vax, climate change deniers, etc.>.
Exactly. Many Russians wanted a strong man and they accept if not embrace fascism. Not all. I have a friend who managed to get out of Russia a few months ago. He had to give up almost everything he had except his cat to do it. So I certainly don't hate Russians. But I do hate fascists. Sadly the poorly educated are easily conned into believing lies.