Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Major escalation in Armenia/Azerbaijan border conflict. One has to wonder if this is locally triggered (quite plausible) or is a more Machievellian "apres moi le deluge" move by Putin ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569433843102277633

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569668896558579718

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569671258631016449

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569442037958844419

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569486610915545088

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569484083704602624?

https://twitter.com/caucasuswar/status/1569488085494398979?

The Azerbaijan/Armenia thing has been brewing for a while. The Russians had troops in Armenia to keep the Azerbaijanis from invading, but I think the Russians pulled their troops.

Meanwhile on the matter of the Friends of Putin fanclub member #1, Orban in Hungary,,

Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy, MEPs set to declare​

In a draft report reviewing developments since Parliament activated Article 7, MEPs argue that EU values are under systemic threat in Hungary.
The draft text -which MEPs will discuss on Wednesday and vote on on Thursday

Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy, MEPs set to declare | 12-09-2022 | News | European Parliament

In a draft report reviewing developments since Parliament activated Article 7, MEPs argue that EU values are under systemic threat in Hungary.

www.europarl.europa.eu

(Or maybe Lukashenko, Orban, and Assad get to squabble over who is the #1)

Hungary has been headed down this road for a while. If a country falls out of EU conformance can they be kicked out of the EU?

 

[petit_bateau]

This is - I think - about half way to pinching out the northern part of Kherson

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569705184242110464

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569714972266995715

(The Azeri/Armenia thing goes back a very long way. What is relevant is that it is flaring up again, now. What next ? In the EU there is no good nechanism to kick a country out, it is (rightly so) a very difficult and contentious process).

 

[petit_bateau]

I try to resist commenting on what Ukraine might do next. In contrast I'm happy to relay what is actually widely known to be happening; or what are blindingly obvious facts.

So ...... on the matter of blindingly obvious facts ......... something to be aware of is that Tokmak is to the south what Kupiansk is to the north. The railway between Crimea and the Donetsk basin swings inland at this point and is closest to the existing line of contact. If that railway is cut by the Ukraine at any point along that line, then it becomes much more difficult for Russia to manage the southern theatre and the northern theatre in a mutually supporting manner, i.e. instead of it taking a week or so to move any reserves/stores/etc between theatres along that rail line it becomes a matter of an extra week or so to go via the Russian railway network. If Ukraine could go further and reach the Sea Of Azov coast then they would also cut the M14/E58 road highway. From Tokmak any attacker heading coastwards has a choice of directions whilst retaining force cohesion, whilst any defender is almost inevitably having to withdraw and split its forces as it withdraws.

Factors the Ukraine command team will be wanting to take into account are that they will ideally wish to deprive Russia of key infrastructure/assets/nodes whilst incurring the least casulaties, and the least additional front line themselves, and having the minimum of exposed salient.

EDIT. Another (imho) relevant factor is that Ukraine will not want to engage directly too close to the ZPPN nuclear complex at Enerhodar, but will want to retake it through manoeuvre and encirclement at a distance. I have put that in a square box on one of the maps.

View attachment 851967
View attachment 851970


View attachment 851966

and as we were saying, that movement aims straight at Tokmak

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569545935671406592

 

[wdolson]

This is - I think - about half way to pinching out the northern part of Kherson

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569705184242110464

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569714972266995715

(The Azeri/Armenia thing goes back a very long way. What is relevant is that it is flaring up again, now. What next ? In the EU there is no good nechanism to kick a country out, it is (rightly so) a very difficult and contentious process).

The Armenians have never had it easy. I grew up with a number of Armenians in Los Angeles, there is a sizable ex-pat community there.

and as we were saying, that movement aims straight at Tokmak

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569545935671406592

Looks like they are going after the rail arteries as you said. Melitopol also has political value. It's one of the larger cities seized since February.

Mark Hertling has some words of caution from a general who has run offensive operations. The Ukrainians need a rest before continuing
Thread by @MarkHertling on Thread Reader App

The pace will probably take a pause soon, but they don't want the Russians to recover their equilibrium either.

 

[nativewolf]

Great article in the Atlantic;

Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke

Ukrainian leaders announced one counteroffensive against Russia—but had another in the works.

www.theatlantic.com

For someone that can't but appreciates those that do...the quality of work in the Atlantic is a pleasure to read.

 

[petit_bateau]

Worth reading

In Case of Nuclear War West Has Options Putin Will Not Like at All - Sikorski

Radosław Sikorski is one of those Western diplomats who truly feels and understands Ukraine. Former Minister of Defense and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland worked with Ukraine on behalf of the Polish government for many years in a row

www.eurointegration.com.ua

 

[elasalle]

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, the Kremlin insists it will achieve its goals in Ukraine. But the collapse of Russian defenses has sparked criticism and prompted calls for Putin's resignation. Follow here for news updates.

www.cnn.com

Wasn't even aware Russia had such options? Brave men. Hope no one has an accidental fall from window.

 

[petit_bateau]

Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569776560630005760

 

[wdolson]

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, the Kremlin insists it will achieve its goals in Ukraine. But the collapse of Russian defenses has sparked criticism and prompted calls for Putin's resignation. Follow here for news updates.

www.cnn.com

Wasn't even aware Russia had such options? Brave men. Hope no one has an accidental fall from window.

Russian politics is an odd beast that is alien to the west. I came across this a couple of hours ago. It's about how Putin managed to take over

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499048492358111235

Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569776560630005760

The Russians are reacting like the French in May, 1940. People like to make jokes about the French being bad fighters which historically is untrue, but they were caught flat footed in 1940 and weren't able to recover from the shock before the Germans had captured too much of the country to hold on.

It looks like the Russians are going to try and make a stand in Crimea. The last time there was a serious fight for Crimea the Germans had these
Schwerer Gustav - Wikipedia
Karl-Gerät - Wikipedia

Fortunately for Ukraine the Sevastopol fortress doesn't exist anymore, but the border between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine is some of the most defensible terrain in Ukraine. A fairly narrow land bridge and some man made bridges.

The Ukrainians could isolate Crimea by taking out the Kerch bridges and sinking any ship that tries to send in supply. With a concentrated combined arms attack they could probably get across the isthmus, but it would likely be costly.

With the calls for Putin's ouster the Russians may choose to replace their head of state, blame the entire thing on Putin, and try to rescue as much of the army as possible. In that case they will probably be in the mood to give back all of Ukraine's territory in exchange for sanction relief or something along those lines. Any Putin replacement is going to be desperate to get the economy back to as close to normal as possible as quickly as possible. That will be their only hope to prevent a popular uprising. If they lose the war and the economy doesn't improve rebellion is almost certain. And with the army hollowed out, their ability to stop a rebellion is badly compromised.

 

[Skipdd]

I did not see this posted here yet. This is a positive trend. Interested in the thoughts of others regarding how much economic pain Russia can handle before that becomes an incentive for them to move toward peace. The nationalists within Russia and/or the extremists will only exacerbate the economic issues.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569536372012195841

 

[unk45]

Although I have little contribution to make to this thread I do want all of you to know how much I appreciate your insights.

Until a few months ago i had good Russian contacts, but all of them have left Russia. They all suggested that nearly all the talented IT people and finance specialists had left Russia, primarily because many of them had dual citizenships, and many were actually not Russian citizens despite being native Russian speakers.

All the indications seem to show the near annihilation of the Engineers, physicists and technicians who have kept Russia thriving. They also kept the military infrastructure working smoothly.

It all feels quite like 1990, but more serious because the economy became so heavily dependent on imported technology, parts and food. Now, for the first time there is open loud opposition to the Putin regime. That last happened when the Soviet union was dissolving. It last happened before then with the 1906 Constitution following the defeat in the Russo Japanese war.

Overt Russian dissent seems to have always been the spark that set off revolution of some kind. Open declarations now seem to be closely analogous. The past does not necessarily inform the future...but this certainly seems real to me.

For those better informed than am I: is this really the beginning of the end?

 

[RobStark]

Medvedev says security guarantee demands by Ukrainian negotiators is essentially a NATO Article 5 guarantee.

Medvedev so terrified by security guarantees for Ukraine that hes talking about an apocalypse

STANISLAV POHORILOV - TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022, 19:09 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has called the recommendations of the Kyiv Security Compact for the strategic partnership of Ukraine and the guarantor states "a prologue to WWIII".

www.yahoo.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Putin's man in Mariupol was I believe the fellow live streaming from his car as he skittered away to wherever. Right? So if that's being recaptured.....

Simply looking at a Google map and thinking of the rail system, recapturing Melitopol means Russian forces could soon be split between those contained in Crimea and those still holding on in Donetsk/Luhansk.

So fairly quickly after a regroup, Ukrainian forces can keep those in Crimea hemmed in while they finish clearing out the east. That's an insane turn of events in not even a month.

One thing I'm thinking looking at the Putin posts above.....a month from now we could see Putin in a really tight spot. Support seems to be all but gone. If they're holding on by a thread in Crimea and there's massive unrest in the Russian streets.....does Biden poke his head into this with a "step down Putin" speech? There are of course US elections on the near horizon.

Or maybe other world leaders with a nod of approval from the US? The return of Crimea and a Putin ouster would instantly get Russia a full reversal on sanctions.

Oil goes to $40. Putin goes on trial for war crimes. Russian economy recovers. Everybody wins.

They have to know the alternative is permanent isolation until oil & gas really start to die in 2025-26. Just like coal did. They'll be the West Virginia of Eurasia with nothing even to pivot to.

 

[Skipdd]

Medvedev says security guarantee demands by Ukrainian negotiators is essentially a NATO Article 5 guarantee.

Medvedev so terrified by security guarantees for Ukraine that hes talking about an apocalypse

STANISLAV POHORILOV - TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022, 19:09 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has called the recommendations of the Kyiv Security Compact for the strategic partnership of Ukraine and the guarantor states "a prologue to WWIII".

www.yahoo.com

I’ve learned quite a bit from those on this thread and from the many others cited who post on Twitter. Based on that, I wonder if Medvedev’s statements are intended to just establish himself as the successor to Putin, by appealing to the nationalists and hawks, and/or he seriously intends to follow through with his threats. Surely he understands that at this point, the West will not be cowed by this, and understands we will not stop until Russia leaves Ukraine. Period. And that the use of nuclear devices through any means will result in serious consequences for Russia, well beyond economic ones (my opinion).

 

[Skipdd]

Putin's man in Mariupol was I believe the fellow live streaming from his car as he skittered away to wherever. Right? So if that's being recaptured.....

Simply looking at a Google map and thinking of the rail system, recapturing Melitopol means Russian forces could soon be split between those contained in Crimea and those still holding on in Donetsk/Luhansk.

So fairly quickly after a regroup, Ukrainian forces can keep those in Crimea hemmed in while they finish clearing out the east. That's an insane turn of events in not even a month.

One thing I'm thinking looking at the Putin posts above.....a month from now we could see Putin in a really tight spot. Support seems to be all but gone. If they're holding on by a thread in Crimea and there's massive unrest in the Russian streets.....does Biden poke his head into this with a "step down Putin" speech? There are of course US elections on the near horizon.

Or maybe other world leaders with a nod of approval from the US? The return of Crimea and a Putin ouster would instantly get Russia a full reversal on sanctions.

Oil goes to $40. Putin goes on trial for war crimes. Russian economy recovers. Everybody wins.

They have to know the alternative is permanent isolation until oil & gas really start to die in 2025-26. Just like coal did. They'll be the West Virginia of Eurasia with nothing even to pivot to.

No speech. Instead of rhetoric, just actions.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

No speech. Instead of rhetoric, just actions.

In an election year? Such a wasted opportunity!

Now that we're nearly out of this global pandemic, I really hope no nuclear weapons are deployed in the next two weeks. <-- 2022 has set quite a low bar

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Germany has acted foolishly the last 6 years or so, allowing corruption to let them get hooked on Russian gas. But they clearly can work their way around it, at least for this winter.

Russia’s Energy Blackmail Is Backfiring | OilPrice.com

Putin has ordered the shutdown of the Nord Stream One gas pipeline too early, giving the EU plenty of time to prepare for emergencies

oilprice.com

The US API supply report this afternoon showed a massive build in US commercial crude supplies. Futures pricing didn't even blink of course.

Let's see what happens when the EIA report comes out in the morning.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not unexpected news given the Russian conduct exposed after lifting the seige on Kyiv:

Ukraine war: Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas | BBC (5 hrs ago)

Ukraine war: Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas

The BBC hears accusations that Russian forces electrocuted prisoners and shot civilians in the Kharkiv region.

www.bbc.com

 

[navguy12]

Medvedev says security guarantee demands by Ukrainian negotiators is essentially a NATO Article 5 guarantee.

Medvedev so terrified by security guarantees for Ukraine that hes talking about an apocalypse

STANISLAV POHORILOV - TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022, 19:09 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has called the recommendations of the Kyiv Security Compact for the strategic partnership of Ukraine and the guarantor states "a prologue to WWIII".

www.yahoo.com

He quotes Revelations.

As I read David Kertzer’s The Pope At War, it seems every scoundrel starts quoting scripture when they have exhausted all other courses of action while failing to accomplish their own agendas.

 

[wdolson]

Although I have little contribution to make to this thread I do want all of you to know how much I appreciate your insights.

Until a few months ago i had good Russian contacts, but all of them have left Russia. They all suggested that nearly all the talented IT people and finance specialists had left Russia, primarily because many of them had dual citizenships, and many were actually not Russian citizens despite being native Russian speakers.

All the indications seem to show the near annihilation of the Engineers, physicists and technicians who have kept Russia thriving. They also kept the military infrastructure working smoothly.

It all feels quite like 1990, but more serious because the economy became so heavily dependent on imported technology, parts and food. Now, for the first time there is open loud opposition to the Putin regime. That last happened when the Soviet union was dissolving. It last happened before then with the 1906 Constitution following the defeat in the Russo Japanese war.

Overt Russian dissent seems to have always been the spark that set off revolution of some kind. Open declarations now seem to be closely analogous. The past does not necessarily inform the future...but this certainly seems real to me.

For those better informed than am I: is this really the beginning of the end?

Putin is terrible at military strategy, but he is a good politician. I won't count him out until his corpse approaches room temperature. That said, it could be the beginning of the end. We'll know in a few weeks.

Medvedev says security guarantee demands by Ukrainian negotiators is essentially a NATO Article 5 guarantee.

Medvedev so terrified by security guarantees for Ukraine that hes talking about an apocalypse

STANISLAV POHORILOV - TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022, 19:09 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has called the recommendations of the Kyiv Security Compact for the strategic partnership of Ukraine and the guarantor states "a prologue to WWIII".

www.yahoo.com

He probably is posturing for some political reason, but my first thought was "what do you expect?" Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum* that they signed. Ukraine wants a new agreement with teeth. Duh

*The Budapest Memorandum was an agreement between the UK, Russia, the US, and the ex-Soviet republics that ended up with nukes. The republics would give up their nukes in exchange for security guarantees. Russia ignored that in 2014 and went even further this year. Ukraine wants the guarantees to have teeth, or nuclear weapons themselves. If the west abandons them after this war, they will build their own weapons.