Another one bites the dust:
vladimir-nikolayevich-sungorkin-ally-of-vladimir-putin-dies-of-apparent-stroke-on-business-trip
vladimir-nikolayevich-sungorkin-ally-of-vladimir-putin-dies-of-apparent-stroke-on-business-trip
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
The modern Russian army is a shadow of the Red Army of WWII. Laying mines takes time. The Russians have mined some defensive positions, but the army is mostly untrained people now. Those who do have training have been slotted into roles where they have no training. The Ukrainians have made some interesting captures lately. At Izium they captured a bunch of soldiers from the nuclear forces who had been forced into the infantry with virtually no training. They also captured a sailor from the Baltic Fleet who was made a tank driver with a week's training.
That unit did what it did 30 years ago. Nobody in the current unit had anything to do with it, in fact most members of the unit were born after 1990. The Russians don't rotate units on the front, they don't have the manpower and it's not part of their practice. Soldiers go to the front and they are there until they die, the commanders move the unit somewhere else or their contract expires (and then some aren't allowed to go home). The Guards unit was there until it wasn't.
Ukr has static units they are using to hold captured ground. These units have been along the Belarus and Russian border in the north for months. They will be inserted into the border at Kherson to defend it from the Russians. Ukr probably also has a mobile reserve in the north to respond to any Russians crossing the border anywhere.
I expect after the war is over those who were passive collaborators will get amnesty. The Ukr government has warned people in captured territories that getting a Russian passport is treason, but there were those who complied but did nothing to help the Russians. Those who actively helped the Russians will probably be punished.
Mandela needed to offer amnesty because the whites in SA still had all the wealth. Getting them to work with the majority black population was going to go smoother than confiscating all the wealth and it was more of a win-win. The active collaborators in Ukr have little to offer the country.
China has shown no interest in taking over and directly ruling non-Chinese people. They are out to economically rule the world. They will do Belt and Road in Siberia if Russia breaks up and will control the region economically, but it will be locals in charge.
The FSB does not control the nuclear arsenal. Russia, being paranoid, has more hoops to leap through to launch nukes. It is possible that an FSB official replaces Putin if he's ousted. The FSB is one of the more powerful organizations in Russia.
The army has degraded since the Soviet era. The paratroops who should have been the elite have proven themselves to be poorly trained and weak. The Guards units got that designation in WW II for units that performed well in the war, but those designations are ceremonial now. A Guard unit today is just as bad as any other unit in the army.
Well the russians have committed another violation of the geneva convention, attacking dams. It may flood the largest open pit coal mine in UKR and that would put most of the thermal plants into a bad spot, they don't have much local stockpile apparently.
Ben Hodges, (someone put up a nice video by him the other day) former head of US forces in Europe and involved in training UKR forces, has called for the us to start preparing for the end of Russia.
Tiger
Active Member
If Prigozhin is alive, is he cleaning house, or if he is not, who is cleaning house? There aren't really any known names on that list, yet.
Maganov, lukoil, was a pretty big wig. Supporters and detractors of putin have been killed. It's curious. Most are Gazprom executives. Did they fail to hook Europe enough? Not bribe enough people?
Or Putin needed to claw back some of his distributed personal assets.
There are stories about Putin being rich and he probably is fairly wealthy, but he's not motivated by the number of zeroes on his personal wealth, he's motivated by power. When you are a modern day Czar of Russia regular wealth is not significant.
The oligarchs who have had accidents are probably people who questioned Putin's war too much. Among the Russians in his inner circle many of the oligarchs understand the outside world the best and they have probably realized from the start what a monumental disaster this war is going to be. Even if the war had gone in Russia's favor the economic fallout was always going to be far more severe than anyone who only have an inside view of Russia could understand.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Russian attack on Ukraine dam near Kyriv Rih, etc
Closing in on Kherson city
Crimea border shut for anyone who is liable to conscription
Closing in on Kherson city
Crimea border shut for anyone who is liable to conscription
The destruction of this dam only temporarily impacts the UKR (and russian) ability to maneuver on the approach to Kherson. A bit of desperation tactic perhaps. Maybe designed to allow some local reallocation and positioning of troops. However, it seems more likely that it is part of an unbridled and criminal attack on civilian infrastructure and lives such as the recent attacks on thermal power plants. Many commentators seem to think this will lead to some escalation and counter attacks by UKR in russia.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The dam attack is a clear Geneva contravention imho. One of many.
More indirect evidence that Ukraine across Oskil, including at Borova
More indirect evidence that Ukraine across Oskil, including at Borova
It is interesting to read through warmonitors thread on USA contributions to UKR so far
threadreaderapp.com
Thread by @WarMonitor3 on Thread Reader App
@WarMonitor3: Pentagon🇺🇸 published the full official list of military aid to Ukraine as of September 8: 🧵 -More than 1400 MANPADS "Stinger" -More than 8,500 Javelin ATGMs -Over 32,000 other anti-tank systems -Over 7...…
threadreaderapp.com
have you seen any reports on flooding in the mines downstream?
Hope I did that right, it's the very large open pit mine that could be flooded because of this.
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Well the russians have committed another violation of the geneva convention, attacking dams. It may flood the largest open pit coal mine in UKR and that would put most of the thermal plants into a bad spot, they don't have much local stockpile apparently.
the-geneva-conventions-how-russia-breaches-them-and-blames-ukraine-for-it-voxcheck-explains
Despite the clear violations in Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya, and the present Ukraine conflict, Russia has almost totally avoided prosecution. Russia itself is not a signatory, although the USSR was. Russia never has had any compunction to avoid war crimes. Further there are numerous regular war events that have had clear violations by many countries, including the US.
Notwithstanding the laudable aims of all the Geneva Convention articles, and the Hague ones before those, in modern warfare civilians and civilian infrastructure are always damaged. It is rationally indisputable that the US Hiroshima and Nagasaki events and the UK and Allied firebombing of Dresden, for example also violated all rules of war.
Absolutely I am in no way condoning anything being now done by Russia. I am reluctant to be definitive in a one-sided view, principally because all sides in WWII and after have been regularly violating those agreements. The truth is a matter of degree and context, thus these systems really are not functional today, sad though that is.
FWIW: during the Vietnam war I was there. I carried a Geneva Convention mandated 'Certificate of Non-Combatant Identity' although my entire function was military logistics support. Was that legal? Had I been captured I am confident that document would have had no significance. Close calls, several, but not captured. Therefore i did not know. In short, even those documents were misused by the USA, without question. Factually, I had no idea about the definitions until a couple of decades later.
In short, I abhor the Russian invasion and all it represents. Criticizing them on this basis is a 'pot and kettle' case for anyone who ever participated in modern war. Once genuine civilians, whatever that means, are legitimate acusers.
All that said, I would be thrilled were Hodges to be proven correct!
This article explains some of the issues regarding the Geneva Conventions, including reference to the specific articles now being breached by Russian military forces:
the-geneva-conventions-how-russia-breaches-them-and-blames-ukraine-for-it-voxcheck-explains
Despite the clear violations in Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya, and the present Ukraine conflict, Russia has almost totally avoided prosecution. Russia itself is not a signatory, although the USSR was. Russia never has had any compunction to avoid war crimes. Further there are numerous regular war events that have had clear violations by many countries, including the US.
Notwithstanding the laudable aims of all the Geneva Convention articles, and the Hague ones before those, in modern warfare civilians and civilian infrastructure are always damaged. It is rationally indisputable that the US Hiroshima and Nagasaki events and the UK and Allied firebombing of Dresden, for example also violated all rules of war.
Absolutely I am in no way condoning anything being now done by Russia. I am reluctant to be definitive in a one-sided view, principally because all sides in WWII and after have been regularly violating those agreements. The truth is a matter of degree and context, thus these systems really are not functional today, sad though that is.
FWIW: during the Vietnam war I was there. I carried a Geneva Convention mandated 'Certificate of Non-Combatant Identity' although my entire function was military logistics support. Was that legal? Had I been captured I am confident that document would have had no significance. Close calls, several, but not captured. Therefore i did not know. In short, even those documents were misused by the USA, without question. Factually, I had no idea about the definitions until a couple of decades later.
In short, I abhor the Russian invasion and all it represents. Criticizing them on this basis is a 'pot and kettle' case for anyone who ever participated in modern war. Once genuine civilians, whatever that means, are legitimate acusers.
All that said, I would be thrilled were Hodges to be proven correct!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is a "flow-through" style dam, without a large water reservoir backed up behind it. Thus the damage potential from flooding is comparatively lower than the typical hydro-electric dam.
Xi and Putin hold first meeting since Ukraine invasion began
Putin said he supports Chinese claims on Taiwan, Xi said nothing about Ukraine.
"China released a statement after the meeting noting that it was "ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests," per the Times."
Putin said he supports Chinese claims on Taiwan, Xi said nothing about Ukraine.
"China released a statement after the meeting noting that it was "ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests," per the Times."
petit_bateau
Active Member
Only people saying that the various open and deep coal and iron mines/stocks/etc will flood; none that they have flooded. I have seen images of bridges being adversely affected downstream and in one case washed away. @Artful Dodger is saying it is a run-of-river dam but I really have not had a chance to pay attention.
Tables have turned over the decades re: Russia/China. Xi needs nothing from Putin, but will happily take their discounted fossils.
Must feel small and increasingly smaller to be Putin's Russia, not just compared to China, but compared to the rest of the world. Death of empires...
petit_bateau
Active Member
Hungary ......
www.theguardian.com
Hungary is no longer a full democracy, says European parliament
MEPs back resolution stating country led by Viktor Orbán has become ‘hybrid regime of electoral autocracy’
www.theguardian.com
Like I said, China is just sending over thoughts and prayers. They have zero intentions for any international conflict like Russia with Ukraine. Plus Russia will turn Taiwan into a wasteland because that's just their style....not the type of "help" China is looking for....
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Everyone keeps talking about the wrong dams. It's not the Kremenchuk up in central Ukraine or the Kakhovka down on the Dnipro River near Kherson. This was the Karachun dam on the Inhulets River in Kryvyi Rih. It did have a large reservoir. You can see it on Google Maps and catch a glimpse of it at this end of this clip:have you seen any reports on flooding in the mines downstream?
Hope I did that right, it's the very large open pit mine that could be flooded because of this.
After flowing through parts of Kryvyi Rih, the Inhulets continues past a large quarry then into farmlands and small towns until it flows into the Dnipro a few miles upstream of Kherson.
