Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Artful Dodger]

Have to wonder if NATO has dozens of goodies including ATACMS just waiting for immediate delivery to Ukraine from over on the Polish side of the border in the event Putin decides to do something stupid like use a tactical Nuke.

ATACMS won't help going forward. You'd need to neuter the Russian's ability to command their nuclear forces, and quickly. If it were me, I'd send a wing of B-2 Spirits (stealth deniability) with GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to take out all their C3 bunkers.

GBU-57A/B MOP - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Then, depending on which delivery system the Russians chose to use, I'd burn the remainder of them to the ground. But no nukes, just thermobaric weapons. Gets the point across, makes them think carefully about the next move.

Russian Nuclear Disarmament should be the West's objective. voluntary at the peace table, or violently at the tip of the sword. Their choice, but time limited.

 

[kabin]

I hope not but if it ever came to be, I guess Russia would direct the tactical nuke at west-central Ukraine so as not to destroy the eastern area any more than it is.

 

[petit_bateau]

Another good sitrep map. The Zherebets river is the one that flows from North to South just east of Lyman, towards Zarichne and Yampil, exiting into the Sivertsky Donets river. You'll likely recall Yampil from previous fighting when the Ukraine held on to it for a long time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574093348796760064

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Does this mean that some NASAMS systems are now operational in Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574078696117440512

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

Fortsatt ukrainsk offensiv öster om Oskil - stora ryska förluster, flera ryska flygplan nedskjutna - terrorbombning av Odesa

Ukraina fortsätter sin offensiv öster om Oskil och kan vara på väg att skapa en ny rysk ficka i Lyman. De ryska förlusterna fortsätter vara stora och terroristlandet svarar med att terrorbomba Odesa med iranska patrullrobotar (självmordsdrönare). Ukraina sköt ner en helikopter och tre stridsflygplan

cornucopia.se

 

[nwdiver]

Exclusive video of drafted Ruzzians arriving in Ukraine...

 

[madodel]

Far-right German politicians accused of pro-Putin ‘propaganda trip’
Five AfD politicians currently in Russia and planning to travel to occupied Donbas in eastern Ukraine

Putin has found his NAZIs, or should I say they've found him.

 

[iPlug]

ATACMS won't help going forward. You'd need to neuter the Russian's ability to command their nuclear forces, and quickly. If it were me, I'd send a wing of B-2 Spirits (stealth deniability) with GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to take out all their C3 bunkers.

Was arguing ATACMS could be delivered among many items if a tactical nuke were used. A volley of them would likely take out the Kerch bridge, for example.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

For some further context about the Dictators sham "referendums":

I listened to some Swedish Public Service Radio. They had this guest – Jakob Hedenskog, who is an Analyst at Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs:

Jakob Hedenskog

Jakob Hedenskog is an Analyst at Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at UI.

www.ui.se

According to him there has never been any kind of Democratic and Fair election anywhere on Russian soil. And Ukraine isn't Russian soil.

 

[bkp_duke]

ATACMS won't help going forward. You'd need to neuter the Russian's ability to command their nuclear forces, and quickly. If it were me, I'd send a wing of B-2 Spirits (stealth deniability) with GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to take out all their C3 bunkers.

GBU-57A/B MOP - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Then, depending on which delivery system the Russians chose to use, I'd burn the remainder of them to the ground. But no nukes, just thermobaric weapons. Gets the point across, makes them think carefully about the next move.

Russian Nuclear Disarmament should be the West's objective. voluntary at the peace table, or violently at the tip of the sword. Their choice, but time limited.

Would not matter. Russia keeps enough nukes in the water with their fast-attack nuclear subs to wipe out every major US city 3X over. Even with first strike going PERFECT, this is a "war" that no one could ever win.

 

[iPlug]

Would argue a response to a tactical nuke(s) should be proportional using conventional but high powered non-nuclear weapons. Keeps moral high-ground and international support and support of sane population in Russia.

Imagine response target(s) should be in the periphery of and directly linked to the warzone so Russian populations most directly feel this is about Putin's illegal occupation. Maybe Sevastopol naval base gets hit hard and the Kerch bridge is taken out but who executed the counterattack remains a mystery.

 

[bkp_duke]

Would argue a response to a tactical nuke(s) should be proportional using conventional but high powered non-nuclear weapons. Keeps moral high-ground and international support and support of sane population in Russia.

MOABs.

GBU-43/B MOAB - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

US keeps a few dozen of those on hand at all times.

 

[wdolson]

English transaltion of analysis of Russian conscription

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisati...…

threadreaderapp.com

I agree with most of what they said, though they are repeating something many western analysts are saying that the troops on the front line now will be pulled out and rested. Rest and refit is an important part of every western military and Ukraine has adopted it too. The Russians have never done it. Sometimes troops inadvertently get a rest like the Kharkhiv defenders when they are pushed out of position and are forced idle due to equipment losses, but generally troops go into the field and stay on the line as long as the higher ups think necessary. The remaining survivors from the first days of the war are on the frontlines now.

Mark Hertling was writing the other day about the practicalities of rotation. After 90 days on the front a soldier's capabilities start a rapid decline from burnout. By 120-150 days they are pretty much useless. But the Russians don't acknowledge this, nor do they care.

Seems that there is much going on this week. Most importantly for the next 2 months...mud season is here, reporting is that rains are limiting mobility. This is what makes the svarote push more critical and even rybar russian telegram people have commented. That is the key east west road south of russian border. It also threatens another GLOC (strabolisk spelling?), and threatens to free the entire northern border of that oblast. It also reinforces the encirclement of Lyman. So who knows...very obvious but lots of people have seen it and reported on it so there it is. Tactical, strategic, and politically helpful. The UKR just hit the command staff in Svarote and put a general out of work, they are counter attacking every day there and UKR is committing more forces.

Russian aviation took a 2 day beating and it makes one wonder is it increased sorties or increased weapons shipments getting to front lines? If they are being told to fly or else than russia could burn through quite a few airframes simply to do the job of a drone. OTOH they airframes are doing nothing sitting in Kursk. Maybe throwing anything at the Lyman pocket to stave off a retreat or encirclement. It all seems for naught, the encirclement seems a matter of days.

An encirclement there and continued push east of kupernisk (ok if I don't look at the map while typing I am lost in spelling- forgive me UKR) threatens a double envelopment, the whole northern russian defense could collapse.

Watching history unfold

It is.

We may also be seeing the effects from all the AA systems captured in the Kharkhiv offensive. Lots of top shelf Russian kit was captured.

Just takes one well-place bullet headed Putins direction to end this . . .

Be careful what you wish for. There are quite a few in Kremlin circles who are bigger warhawks than Putin. Putin knows mobilization is politically dangerous with the public. The draft was very unpopular before the war. But he caved on this partial mobilization due to the warhawks to his right agitating for a full scale war.

ATACMS won't help going forward. You'd need to neuter the Russian's ability to command their nuclear forces, and quickly. If it were me, I'd send a wing of B-2 Spirits (stealth deniability) with GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to take out all their C3 bunkers.

GBU-57A/B MOP - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Then, depending on which delivery system the Russians chose to use, I'd burn the remainder of them to the ground. But no nukes, just thermobaric weapons. Gets the point across, makes them think carefully about the next move.

Russian Nuclear Disarmament should be the West's objective. voluntary at the peace table, or violently at the tip of the sword. Their choice, but time limited.

Where is the US going to find a wing of B-2s? There are only 20 of them.

All 20 are in one Wing, the 509th, but it's an undersized wing.

The US military war games everything and has an off the shelf solution to every predictable world event. They have a plan for the response to a Russian nuclear strike and I'm sure world leaders have let Putin know enough detail he's going to be very wary of using nukes. But if Putin is retired and a hard liner replaces him all bets are off.

Another good sitrep map. The Zherebets river is the one that flows from North to South just east of Lyman, towards Zarichne and Yampil, exiting into the Sivertsky Donets river. You'll likely recall Yampil from previous fighting when the Ukraine held on to it for a long time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574093348796760064

The Russians do appear to be putting up a fight for Lyman, but I don't think they are going to be able to hold it much longer. When it falls the Ukrainians might be on the move again. A collapse of Luhansk could follow which would likely start a panic among troops in Donesk. The Russians have a large force in Donesk attempting to take ground. An army swooping in from the rear would carry a high risk of encirclement. It could be a repeat of Falaise Pocket with a much less competant army attempting break out.

Would not matter. Russia keeps enough nukes in the water with their fast-attack nuclear subs to wipe out every major US city 3X over. Even with first strike going PERFECT, this is a "war" that no one could ever win.

The Russians have 10 active SSBNs. 6 were built after 1990. Considering their poor maintenance record we don't know how much of that force is actually capable of carrying out its mission.

 

[iPlug]

MOABs.

GBU-43/B MOAB - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

US keeps a few dozen of those on hand at all times.

Seems this could be used - has the largest conventional punch. Imagine would likely need to neutralize air defenses first to ensure high probability target destination reached. Maybe preceded by dozens of missiles taking out air defenses and other elements as part of a massive combination strike.

With MOAB, would have to be delivered with a heavy bomber, and there would be no doubt who delivered it. Depending on who you ask that could be a good or bad thing.

Another thought, given Russia violating so many conventions such as the Budapest Memorandum, maybe the Montreux Convention of 1936 gets dissolved until the end of the war if a tactical nuke is used by Russian and the Black Sea gets opened to NATO naval privileges allowing in submarines.

 

[nativewolf]

Thread by @DefMon3 on Thread Reader App

@DefMon3: Update 🧵September 25th. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. Todays presentation is brought to you by a Russian war hero. Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Yesterdays...…

threadreaderapp.com

according to this thread the fighting in the north is moving just as I thought it would, Svatove then Staroblisk or however it's spelled. That's going to set UKR up for mud season and winter. At some point things get interesting elsewhere.

 

[nativewolf]

Does this mean that some NASAMS systems are now operational in Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574078696117440512

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

Fortsatt ukrainsk offensiv öster om Oskil - stora ryska förluster, flera ryska flygplan nedskjutna - terrorbombning av Odesa

Ukraina fortsätter sin offensiv öster om Oskil och kan vara på väg att skapa en ny rysk ficka i Lyman. De ryska förlusterna fortsätter vara stora och terroristlandet svarar med att terrorbomba Odesa med iranska patrullrobotar (självmordsdrönare). Ukraina sköt ner en helikopter och tre stridsflygplan

cornucopia.se

Seems so

 

[nativewolf]

I agree with most of what they said, though they are repeating something many western analysts are saying that the troops on the front line now will be pulled out and rested. Rest and refit is an important part of every western military and Ukraine has adopted it too. The Russians have never done it. Sometimes troops inadvertently get a rest like the Kharkhiv defenders when they are pushed out of position and are forced idle due to equipment losses, but generally troops go into the field and stay on the line as long as the higher ups think necessary. The remaining survivors from the first days of the war are on the frontlines now.

Mark Hertling was writing the other day about the practicalities of rotation. After 90 days on the front a soldier's capabilities start a rapid decline from burnout. By 120-150 days they are pretty much useless. But the Russians don't acknowledge this, nor do they care.



It is.

We may also be seeing the effects from all the AA systems captured in the Kharkhiv offensive. Lots of top shelf Russian kit was captured.



Be careful what you wish for. There are quite a few in Kremlin circles who are bigger warhawks than Putin. Putin knows mobilization is politically dangerous with the public. The draft was very unpopular before the war. But he caved on this partial mobilization due to the warhawks to his right agitating for a full scale war.



Where is the US going to find a wing of B-2s? There are only 20 of them.

All 20 are in one Wing, the 509th, but it's an undersized wing.

The US military war games everything and has an off the shelf solution to every predictable world event. They have a plan for the response to a Russian nuclear strike and I'm sure world leaders have let Putin know enough detail he's going to be very wary of using nukes. But if Putin is retired and a hard liner replaces him all bets are off.



The Russians do appear to be putting up a fight for Lyman, but I don't think they are going to be able to hold it much longer. When it falls the Ukrainians might be on the move again. A collapse of Luhansk could follow which would likely start a panic among troops in Donesk. The Russians have a large force in Donesk attempting to take ground. An army swooping in from the rear would carry a high risk of encirclement. It could be a repeat of Falaise Pocket with a much less competant army attempting break out.



The Russians have 10 active SSBNs. 6 were built after 1990. Considering their poor maintenance record we don't know how much of that force is actually capable of carrying out its mission.

And USSR did not keep them out for long, they did not/do not trust the commanders. As recently as a few years ago they had 1 sub in the water on patrol. 1. The kicker...they normally didn't go out of the north Atlantic or the north pacific, close to Sakhalia

 

[iPlug]

Pure desperation:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574170287406567428

 

[nativewolf]

The U.S. takes to the skies one of the rarest aircraft - RC-135S "Cobra Ball", which is used for surveillance of nuclear weapons

RC-135 is a family of large strategic reconnaissance aircraft built by the American corporation The Boeing Company and modernized by various companies.

gagadget.com

USA is doing a really good job with this conflict, the posture is mature, forceful, but not provoking. Had the wrong link, sorry. Anyway this is a response to the nuke questions. They had 3 of these flying at one time today, first time in history. Can't say we're watching you much louder than this.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ Putin knows mobilization is politically dangerous with the public. The draft was very unpopular before the war. But he caved on this partial mobilization due to the warhawks to his right agitating for a full scale war. /...

What would have happened to the Dictator if he hadn't mobilized? Wouldn't his army inevitably have lost in Ukraine? And what would have happened to him then?...

This mobilization seems to be all that he can do. But as I understand it – it won't work anyway – or?...

But the Dictator is still going to keep trying until someone or some group of people stops him.

 

[iPlug]

What would have happened to the Dictator if he hadn't mobilized? Wouldn't his army inevitably have lost in Ukraine? And what would have happened to him then?...

This mobilization seems to be all that he can do. But as I understand it – it won't work anyway – or?...

But the Dictator is still going to keep trying until someone or some group of people stops him.

Cornered rat that painted himself into that corner. No threats to Russia's existence rather his own and entirely of his own doing. Only bad options for him to chose from at this point.