Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

Of course the system in the US that saves lives today has been evolving for 80 years. It's much more involved than just having the personnel there. The Russians seem to think they can get the survival rates the US does with more people on the job. They don't have the infrastructure the US has and there is zero chance they can put it together.

More personnel will save some lives but won't approach American levels of survivability.

Time and money required here. But there is at least a third ingredient that is required - caring.

They don't place a high value for human life (unless you are one of the elites in the kleptocracy). Dead soldiers don't need expensive, often lifelong physical/mental health care that continuously reminds others of the costs of war. Best to ignore them/let them die quickly and tell your population to keep quiet else go to prison.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"Andrei, who turned 18 last week, was called up — in papers seen by AFP — after being detained during the anti-mobilisation protests in Moscow."

Detained Russian protesters face conscription or jail

Mikhail Suetin expected to be detained when he protested against Russian mobilisation, but he never imagined he would be ordered to enlist in the very army he was denouncing.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[iPlug]

Significant silver lining for the likely global recession markets are predicting is that the continued decline in oil prices decreases funding for the Putin/Russia war machine. Mentioned this earlier in the thread, but oil prices continue to fall.

At the moment, WTI Crude (~$78.5/bbl) and Brent Crude (~$86/bbl) are down 5-6% today. That's far from the peaks of the war.

Russia sells at Urals Crude prices which have most recently been trading ~$23-24 lower then Brent. Thus, currently Russia is only getting ~$62-63/bbl.

This is also an upside that will ease the high energy prices Europeans have been paying. Natural gas prices are falling too given less demand from East Asia among others.

If the likely recession becomes a definite recession, these prices would be expected to fall further.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I could see many civilians wanting to leave to, I think they'd leave the bridge open and make the towns a bit hot to encourage the die hard russian supporters to find another home.

Long term there is some truth to the fact that there is a large population of native russian speakers In many videos after Izium the villagers were speaking russian. Ukraine needs a path forward like the Amnesty worked out by Mandela for SA. They need to rebuild these area and integrate these oblasts into Ukraine by pulling them in vs punitive means. My $0.02. I don't want to see a west bank or ireland

.../ Perun points out that all those babushkas crying when liberated by the Ukrainians are Russian speakers. The claim the Ukrainians were discriminating against Russian speakers was just propaganda.

The Russians were able to get some people in the Donbas to fight against Kyiv because the Donbas is the poorest region in Ukraine and there were some people who figured Russia couldn't be much worse. Now after 8 years of low scale war and 7 months of brutal war that has killed a huge chunk of the male population of Donbas there are probably quite a few of the survivors who are thinking peaceful poverty in Ukraine probably beats genocide under Russia.

[1] Crimea was always more pro-Russian. In the vote to leave the USSR the leave vote was weakest in Crimea. It's also notable that we haven't heard stories of Crimean men being pressed ganged into cannon fodder units like the men of the Donbas. Crimea might be somewhat more tepid about returning to Ukraine, but there are probably plenty of pro-Ukrainians there too. The partisans have been active there and it's difficult to run a partisan operation without civilian help. [My number within square brackets.]

1. And here's an indication of what that support might have been in-between circa 2010-2014 before the Dictators illegal sham 'referendum':

.../ Andrey Illarionov, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former Russian government adviser, cited results of previous polls over past three years showing the Crimean support for joining Russia between 23 and 41 percent to conclude that the actual support for the reunification of Crimea with Russia was about 34 percent and that at least two thirds of Crimea did not vote for it. He called the referendum a "grossly rigged falsification" and the outcome "cynically distorted".[146] /...

Source: 2014 Crimean status referendum - Wikipedia

And keep keep in mind that this "about 34 percent" figure is to be viewed through the lens of the Russian Dictator doing everything he could to influence the populace through his propaganda and his 'intelligence agencies' for X amount of years leading up to his 2014 invasion...

And this was then...

So I wonder how this years invasion and Genocide has influenced this 'support'... Especially if the people in Crimea where to magically be granted their full set of human rights – including freedom of speech and freedom of press – both of which are basically completely non-existent since circa 2014...

 

[heltok]

Video with some new recruits getting their first briefing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573247133448376320

They have banned pedestrians from crossing the border, so some people are using scooters, to not be pedestrians:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573264887622541315

 

[RobStark]

"A source close to one of the country’s (Russian)federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source."

Russia to conscript 1.2 million people — Meduza

Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

meduza.io

 

[petit_bateau]

Significant silver lining for the likely global recession markets are predicting is that the continued decline in oil prices decreases funding for the Putin/Russia war machine. Mentioned this earlier in the thread, but oil prices continue to fall.

At the moment, WTI Crude (~$78.5/bbl) and Brent Crude (~$86/bbl) are down 5-6% today. That's far from the peaks of the war.

Russia sells at Urals Crude prices which have most recently been trading ~$23-24 lower then Brent. Thus, currently Russia is only getting ~$62-63/bbl.

This is also an upside that will ease the high energy prices Europeans have been paying. Natural gas prices are falling too given less demand from East Asia among others.

If the likely recession becomes a definite recession, these prices would be expected to fall further.

On the oil side it is worth bearing in mind that there are Russian export capacity constraints, and that Russian crude trades at a discount, plus more sanctions come into force in (from memory) November. So that and the Fed/etc's demand destruction are definitely affecting Russian cashflows. On the gas side we are a long way from normal, unless there is a new normal (which I think not, though it may take a while to work through, say a couple of years). But the worst of the recent spike is behind us - for now at least.

WTI $78.7/bbl
Brent $86.1/bbl
NL TTF gas €185/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Energy Sector News

WTI $87.4/bbl Brent $93.7/bbl NL TTF gas €192/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote) ZPPN shutting down completely...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[wdolson]

Trent Telenko has some further thoughts on conscription. The screeching you hear is the bottom of the reserve equipment barrel getting scraped to equip the first round of draftees with rifles from WW I. If they really plan to draft 1.2 million will they be doing what they did in the darkest days of 1941 when the Russians sent troops into combat with no weapons with orders to take a weapon from a dead comrade when they fell? That's the sign of an army on the ropes. They survived 1941 because they were getting Lend Lease arms from the UK and US.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

My partner saw ab article that Putin is behaving very erratically the last few weeks. He has declared he's going to directly take control of the war and he refuses to pull troops out of Kherson even though the general staff is convinced it's a lost cause.

And in different news there are rumors Putin is going to introduce prohibition

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573334462070652928

 

[Dangerous Fish]

And in different news there are rumors Putin is going to introduce prohibition

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573334462070652928

Apart from certain Moscow-based residents no doubt.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573582019979841536

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573582019979841536

That's not the only example

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573639984007057413

Good news for Putin is that if civil war breaks out the only weapons available will be sticks and broken glass.

 

[elasalle]

Trent Telenko has some further thoughts on conscription. The screeching you hear is the bottom of the reserve equipment barrel getting scraped to equip the first round of draftees with rifles from WW I. If they really plan to draft 1.2 million will they be doing what they did in the darkest days of 1941 when the Russians sent troops into combat with no weapons with orders to take a weapon from a dead comrade when they fell? That's the sign of an army on the ropes. They survived 1941 because they were getting Lend Lease arms from the UK and US.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

My partner saw ab article that Putin is behaving very erratically the last few weeks. He has declared he's going to directly take control of the war and he refuses to pull troops out of Kherson even though the general staff is convinced it's a lost cause.

And in different news there are rumors Putin is going to introduce prohibition

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573334462070652928

Ukraine should just do some sorties where they drop vodka from the skies

 

[madodel]

Ukraine should just do some sorties where they drop vodka from the skies

They might hurt people with shards of glass. Need to bubble wrap that cargo.



Maybe AFU could offer the conscripts real working weapons if they join the resistance.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"Russia sacks top general in charge of logistics
Russia's partial mobilization announced on Wednesday will likely be one of his first big logistical challenges.."

Russia sacks top general in charge of logistics

KYIV: Moscow replaced its top logistics general on Saturday after a series of setbacks as Kremlin-held regions of eastern and southern Ukraine voted for a second day on becoming part of Russia.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

"Russia sacks top general in charge of logistics
Russia's partial mobilization announced on Wednesday will likely be one of his first big logistical challenges.."

Russia sacks top general in charge of logistics

KYIV: Moscow replaced its top logistics general on Saturday after a series of setbacks as Kremlin-held regions of eastern and southern Ukraine voted for a second day on becoming part of Russia.

www.bangkokpost.com

Poor Putin, so many corrupt, inept underlings. Luckily he's micromanaging everything now including "not a single step back" from Kherson

 

[petit_bateau]

Tank analysis I agree with (pretty much all warfare is a full-team-game)

The Tank Is Not Obsolete, and Other Observations About the Future of Combat - War on the Rocks

After six months of war in Ukraine, some observers have insisted that “we are seeing the very nature of combat change” and that tanks, along with fighter

warontherocks.com

I've done second opinions on a few USVs in my time ... this looks perfectly viable

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

Exchange ratio on these going to be problematic

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573334805604978691

Main exchange ratio trends good

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573059652371218436

It has long been my opinion that the real story of what has been happening to the Russian war in Ukraine is well understood within Russia. So all the denials of "we have to believe our very limited media" are window dressing. How else to explain the immediate change of heart when it is your son being called up. How else to explain that the conscription effort is deliberately avoiding the main cities (unless you are an anti-war activist) and instead biased towards the hinterlands. My personal opinion is that alternative means of news dissemination are working just as well in Russia now as they did during Soviet times, that is to say they work pretty well. This is an ugly fact as it means the chance of a succeesful anti-Putin rebellion are low, as most are cowed, many agree, or both. That of course may change.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573258049657225216

 

[bkp_duke]

Latest Perun video.

 

[nativewolf]

The tank analysis lends weight to the need to reinforce our tank supply to the UKR with M1A1s, send some of ours and get to work fixing up the mothballed fleet in the deserts (they are all fairly obsolete, no power packs, no reactive armor, 105mm vs 155, electronics need to be replaced, etc etc). But anyway, the mothball work would be done in a union factory in Ohio so why the hold up Joe? Lets fix up 1000 for them, send them 1000 and fix 1000 for the USA forces is what I mean.

OTOH I think the recent Trent rant on the implications of Iranian loitering munitions is excellent. Really good. His ranting is over the top sometimes but he's on point with this one:

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: This is a "The World has changed" video. The Iranian Shahed-136 drone in the Russian's hands is acting as a small propeller cruise missile several hundred kilometers from the nearest Russian position....…

threadreaderapp.com

hundreds of loitering drones are cheaper than 1 f35. They force the forward logistics so far back that they are not useful. That's just a start, I see real issues with the future of manned aircraft in the battlefield in the future. It offers nothing compared to a remotely piloted platform- just lots of expense in crew protection, we have to hope that someone in the DOD doesn't have head up the arse.

 

[nativewolf]

I would say though that the tank article fails to mention that Hezbollah evicted Israel from Lebanon with 0 tanks and all the vaunted Israel tank prowess did naught. So, I am not sure he is really drawing the right lesson from the 73 war. I think that more drones in the air will make tanks very vulnerable going forward, maybe not in this conflict but future ones. I still believe that more tanks sooner rather than later for UKR should be an objective in 2022/23. Increase the ability to exploit small tactical advantages and URK has been very stingy trading human lives for square kilometers of terrain. More tanks would help, I think. Lots of strykers in the desert too. They are more modern as well.

My further criticism of the Rob Lee tank article is that he doesn't explain why tanks are still needed in the modern battlefield. Again, Hezbollah evicted Israel without any tanks or even any armor. Just feet on the ground, missiles and artillery. Which makes a very good case for shipping UKR 50 more MLRS and 400 more howitzers and all the ammo they can chug plus a huge platform of our latest and best drones. Me Myself and I are often disagreeing with one another.

 

[petit_bateau]

The tank analysis lends weight to the need to reinforce our tank supply to the UKR with M1A1s, send some of ours and get to work fixing up the mothballed fleet in the deserts (they are all fairly obsolete, no power packs, no reactive armor, 105mm vs 155, electronics need to be replaced, etc etc). But anyway, the mothball work would be done in a union factory in Ohio so why the hold up Joe? Lets fix up 1000 for them, send them 1000 and fix 1000 for the USA forces is what I mean.

OTOH I think the recent Trent rant on the implications of Iranian loitering munitions is excellent. Really good. His ranting is over the top sometimes but he's on point with this one:

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: This is a "The World has changed" video. The Iranian Shahed-136 drone in the Russian's hands is acting as a small propeller cruise missile several hundred kilometers from the nearest Russian position....…

threadreaderapp.com

hundreds of loitering drones are cheaper than 1 f35. They force the forward logistics so far back that they are not useful. That's just a start, I see real issues with the future of manned aircraft in the battlefield in the future. It offers nothing compared to a remotely piloted platform- just lots of expense in crew protection, we have to hope that someone in the DOD doesn't have head up the arse.

Lasers. This problem has been very seriously studied since 1943. Other PGMs are of great utility and are the only thing we have right now, but directionally the magazine depth issue and the exchange cost ratio issue combine with technology trends to force deployment of directed energy weapons.

Glide bomb - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For obvious reasons navies were the lead service in deploying these things in the early years, though they have since proliferated

Royal Navy deployed laser weapons during the Falklands War

Despite recent demonstrations by the US Navy, we still think of laser weapons as being things of the future. However, previously-classified British documents prove that not only were the major powers working on laser weapons in the 1970s and 80s, but that they were already being deployed with…

newatlas.com

I would say though that the tank article fails to mention that Hezbollah evicted Israel from Lebanon with 0 tanks and all the vaunted Israel tank prowess did naught. So, I am not sure he is really drawing the right lesson from the 73 war. I think that more drones in the air will make tanks very vulnerable going forward, maybe not in this conflict but future ones. I still believe that more tanks sooner rather than later for UKR should be an objective in 2022/23. Increase the ability to exploit small tactical advantages and URK has been very stingy trading human lives for square kilometers of terrain. More tanks would help, I think. Lots of strykers in the desert too. They are more modern as well.

My further criticism of the Rob Lee tank article is that he doesn't explain why tanks are still needed in the modern battlefield. Again, Hezbollah evicted Israel without any tanks or even any armor. Just feet on the ground, missiles and artillery. Which makes a very good case for shipping UKR 50 more MLRS and 400 more howitzers and all the ammo they can chug plus a huge platform of our latest and best drones. Me Myself and I are often disagreeing with one another.

If you put lasers a long way forwards they still need a power pack, but they also need armour. Plus a sensor suite, a comms suite, and 365 x 24 mobility in all terrain all over the world. We call that thing a tank. The RCWS you see sprouting on turrets will soon include lasers. A modern tank engine (powerpack) is over 1MW.