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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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OMG that is scary. Is there no training at all. The troops just scurry around like ants, move their vehicles 100m, stop and get nailed. I would feel sorry for them if they were not in someone else's country.
They are lacking a decent command structure so there's nobody on the ground to tell them they're being stupid. Lots of reports of commanders being drunk/incompetent/running away to safety and leaving the troops to 'get on with it'.

Plus, we will now see mobilised troops with little to no training joining depleted units for 'on the job' training, which will inevitably mean bigger groups of sheeple presenting larger targets to UKR drones and artillery.
 
How about we fly all the world leaders and politicians along with a few thousand robo-fighters to Venus on a couple of Starships and leave them to fight their wars there? Personally, I've had enough of them.
all ?

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How about some more conspiracy theories?

"Russian judge reported to be among victims of Crimea Bridge blast

Sergei Maslov, 42, is believed to have been driving his black Cadillac Escalade... The judge previously oversaw court cases involving the daughter of Putin’s accomplice Ramzan Kadyrov and state energy giant Gazprom."

 
For those of us who might not know, Finland and Estonia share deep bonds, not least because of shared language:
Their common roots are Uralic, shared with Hungarian, although Finnish and Estonian stem from Proto-Finnic. Those ties couple with Estonia's superb educational system:
For reference much of Estonian talent has produced very substantial direct benefits for Ukraine, Finland and also such things as Skype, telecommunications technologies and cryptology.
The cooperation between Finland and Estonia has been deepening as they both have historically close, not always pleasant, relationships with Russia.
In my own opinion the current events are producing even tighter cooperation than was historically the case because Finland applied to join Nato. The two share historically porous borders with Russia. Of course Sweden and Norway have those borders too, but they are not so tight,
Estonia does have a very large ethnic Russian community that used to have difficulty assimilating. That seems to be changing:
The Russian aggression has been alienating ethnic Russians in unexpected ways. That will be a threat to Putin's rule since similar changes on outlook seem to have been happening with ethnic Russian in the other Baltics, and even in Georgia and Moldova.

Another consequence, if rumors are accurate, is that the opposition in Belarus is growing rapidly as Lukashenko ties himself more closely than ever with Putin. If those rumors are indicative we'll see some interesting sabotage as Russia/Belarus joint operations expand.

All this is pointing towards much increased guerrilla-style operations against Russia/Belarus military cooperation.
This logic depends very much on the capabilities of Finland and Estonia both of which as small and underestimated, but with very deep understanding of Russia and total determination to stop Russian expansionism. Their tools are intellectual power and extensive understanding of the enemy.

I would very much like to know the point of view from @petit_bateau and @wdolson and others who know these countries. I have worked in both and have very high respect for their abilities, but their shared exceedingly laconic habits make inferences tricky.
 
For those of us who might not know, Finland and Estonia share deep bonds, not least because of shared language:
Their common roots are Uralic, shared with Hungarian, although Finnish and Estonian stem from Proto-Finnic. Those ties couple with Estonia's superb educational system:
For reference much of Estonian talent has produced very substantial direct benefits for Ukraine, Finland and also such things as Skype, telecommunications technologies and cryptology.
The cooperation between Finland and Estonia has been deepening as they both have historically close, not always pleasant, relationships with Russia.
In my own opinion the current events are producing even tighter cooperation than was historically the case because Finland applied to join Nato. The two share historically porous borders with Russia. Of course Sweden and Norway have those borders too, but they are not so tight,
Estonia does have a very large ethnic Russian community that used to have difficulty assimilating. That seems to be changing:
The Russian aggression has been alienating ethnic Russians in unexpected ways. That will be a threat to Putin's rule since similar changes on outlook seem to have been happening with ethnic Russian in the other Baltics, and even in Georgia and Moldova.

Another consequence, if rumors are accurate, is that the opposition in Belarus is growing rapidly as Lukashenko ties himself more closely than ever with Putin. If those rumors are indicative we'll see some interesting sabotage as Russia/Belarus joint operations expand.

All this is pointing towards much increased guerrilla-style operations against Russia/Belarus military cooperation.
This logic depends very much on the capabilities of Finland and Estonia both of which as small and underestimated, but with very deep understanding of Russia and total determination to stop Russian expansionism. Their tools are intellectual power and extensive understanding of the enemy.

I would very much like to know the point of view from @petit_bateau and @wdolson and others who know these countries. I have worked in both and have very high respect for their abilities, but their shared exceedingly laconic habits make inferences tricky.
Don't forget that Turkish is in that group and the "Stan" ones all the way to and including XinJiang. I have heard those are mutually intelligible (the Stan ones that is)
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: unk45
Agree that all countries need to do more. Some more than others.

If we are grading on a curve, the U.S. passes comfortably but should aim higher. Some European countries are still barely passing (some say not passing). As for China and India who could, instead of their posturing to date, be positively impactful…

The West has removed Russia's tank army as a threat. Now it will do the same to its Air Force. We're witnessing the deliberate dismantling of Russian military power, the way the waves smash upon the rocks.

Putin is achieving what George Patton could not. The Universe maximizes Irony.
 
For those of us who might not know, Finland and Estonia share deep bonds, not least because of shared language:
Their common roots are Uralic, shared with Hungarian, although Finnish and Estonian stem from Proto-Finnic. Those ties couple with Estonia's superb educational system:
For reference much of Estonian talent has produced very substantial direct benefits for Ukraine, Finland and also such things as Skype, telecommunications technologies and cryptology.
The cooperation between Finland and Estonia has been deepening as they both have historically close, not always pleasant, relationships with Russia.
In my own opinion the current events are producing even tighter cooperation than was historically the case because Finland applied to join Nato. The two share historically porous borders with Russia. Of course Sweden and Norway have those borders too, but they are not so tight,
Estonia does have a very large ethnic Russian community that used to have difficulty assimilating. That seems to be changing:
The Russian aggression has been alienating ethnic Russians in unexpected ways. That will be a threat to Putin's rule since similar changes on outlook seem to have been happening with ethnic Russian in the other Baltics, and even in Georgia and Moldova.

Another consequence, if rumors are accurate, is that the opposition in Belarus is growing rapidly as Lukashenko ties himself more closely than ever with Putin. If those rumors are indicative we'll see some interesting sabotage as Russia/Belarus joint operations expand.

All this is pointing towards much increased guerrilla-style operations against Russia/Belarus military cooperation.
This logic depends very much on the capabilities of Finland and Estonia both of which as small and underestimated, but with very deep understanding of Russia and total determination to stop Russian expansionism. Their tools are intellectual power and extensive understanding of the enemy.

I would very much like to know the point of view from @petit_bateau and @wdolson and others who know these countries. I have worked in both and have very high respect for their abilities, but their shared exceedingly laconic habits make inferences tricky.

Since this kicked off I have not had an opportunity to talk privately with my Finnish contacts. So the comments I can make are based on previous understandings from them and from many others, plus observing what has happened publicly since. My comments therefore are not really from a Finnish perspective.

1. Everybody now understands that you are either inside NATO or outside NATO. Everyone can now see that the alliance umbrella has no grey zone: you either receive mutual protection or you don't.
2. In Sweden and Finland, all the "lets just be friends" category of "neutral is good" middle-pathers have had their illusions shattered. This also applies to many of the Russia-lovers, and the Putin-lovers (not quite the same things) in those countries. Many of the people who were once in those two groups have also looked at my point #1 and rapidly decided they want under the NATO umbrella. Hence the very strong support for very rapidly joining NATO. *
3. The EU gets this as well. The cadre of variously-different 'neutral' countries in EU have received and understood the message that they need to be quiet whilst the realpolitik is done. This applies especially to Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Austria and in a slightly different way to Denmark. The silence from them is most noticeable and welcome.
4. The Baltic rim states all know full well they hang together or they hang apart; and it is demonstrable to all of them that they must link arms tightly so as to manage the Baltic state called Germany. Their arms are linked very firmly now and growing tighter daily, most especially at the eastern side.
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5. But some people never miss an opportunity to advance their own agendas however crudely. In this respect both Orban in Hungary and Erdogan in Turkey are blatantly doing this. My personal expectation is that both Orban and Erdogan will stretch their blocking tactics out for as long as they can, ideally in their eyes until after the active phase of the conflict is over, and then still continue to block. All the time they will seek to extort concessions and blackmail everyone for their own political ends - they are shameless, predictable, crude, and realy don't care. I hope that this approach can be demonstrated to them as being counterproductive, but that too will require firmness and solidarity.
********
6. Others are also seeking to advance their own agendas. I personally am most ashamed by the UK's trash-talking of the EU and the way that the Cons keep trying to wedge-out the ex-Soviet Baltic states (Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia) as well as of course Poland.
7. All the adults now get it that the very hard work done in both NATO and in EU since 2014 in a co-operative and interlinked manner has just about gotten Europe to the point where it can withstand the Russian pressure and thereby this has enabled the effective support to Ukraine**. Without that, none of this would have been possible, and Ukraine simply would not have had the opportunity to demostrate its own bravery and democratic ambition. There is an understanding that comes out of this, that if the West/free-world is going to step forwards coherently in Asia-Pacific then the US (which cannot do so on its own) needs to understand that if Europe is to stand more fully on its own feet so as to free up more resources to pivot to Asia, then the vehicle for that is the EU. Basically at some point the USA needs to stop trying to **** that EU effort up, and tell its stooge (the UK) to also stop trying to **** that up. This of course is complicated because the people in the US who were trying to **** that up were the people backing Brexit and seeking to use the UK as the wedge. So they've really screwed the pooch now. The EU of course understands this, they are not naive. I hope a way can be found or there will not be enough bandwidth to handle the Asia-Pacific.

There is a lot more I could say but is this enough. You'll have seen lots of EU grand projects accelerating in Eastern Europe - rail links, ports, pipelines, roads, renewables, grid. Very large sums of money are showing that the EU is staying the course, even more so than the 2014-2022 period demonstrated. And then of course Ukraine must be integrated after this phase is over.

* These two categories of people exist in many other countries in NATO / EU and likewise many have gone through the same mental resets. I see this as quite a widespread phenomenen but I get very solid feedback from especially places like Greece and Germany. They now understand that together really is better.

** The support since the recent (2022) cycle of Russian invasion has of course come from the wider coalition of the free world, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia. But those wider countries weren't anywhere near as directly involved in the close-in work done in the 2014-2022 period, simply because they are not in either NATO or EU.

Here are two useful press updates on the Orban & Erdogan blockers:


 
I edited it to say we have a few posters form Finland and their thoughts would be really interesting. I was just a young American when I lived in Finland, right at the end of the Cold War. Lots of contempt for Russia, I met all of two pro Russian communist during my stay there. Out of maybe 2-3 hundred people. I was given tours of the anti tank defenses along the lake shores and witnessed first hand the long mandatory draft that turned boys into men. Finland’s system of higher education is quite limiting and very rigorous. Maybe too much so in my opinion. Engineering is superb. Constantly improving solutions. It’s why we use Ponssee in our work today.

They are already discussing shared naval defense with Estonia. Together they would cut the Russian Baltic fleet freedom to operate via very effective naval cruise weapons, shore launched. They have also discussed a train connection via a tunnel I suppose.

Estonian and Latvians do hate their Russian neighbors. That was very interesting to see in person.

The more interesting point here is that it pushes Latvia Lithuania and Estonia closer to Poland who is emerging as a counterweight to Russia. Poland has gained strategic weight as the conflict drags on especially once people understood the tremendous rearmament program was well thought out and timely. They are a decade ahead of Germany and will shortly field the most effective army outside of the uk and USA in NATO
 
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How about some more conspiracy theories?

"Russian judge reported to be among victims of Crimea Bridge blast

Sergei Maslov, 42, is believed to have been driving his black Cadillac Escalade... The judge previously oversaw court cases involving the daughter of Putin’s accomplice Ramzan Kadyrov and state energy giant Gazprom."

No, he's okay. I heard he jumped out the window at the last moment. /s

Budmo!