We are only talking about the military part. The destruction of his economy was definitely not according to his plan as he is now begging for no new sanctions.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'
These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.
www.bbc.com
He also failed to anticipate the pipeline of weaponry from the West. But more crucially, he underestimated the determination of the Ukranian people to maintain their independence.
Tiger
Active Member
They are not going to put everyone's everyone into gulag, if everyone elopes, they would have to start a gulag country.
And ofcourse extend the offer to extended families too.
Did you watch the video? War is messy and of course nothing goes 100% according to plan as if you had a time machine. However this guy brings up a lot of evidence that support the notion that Putin's time table for this war is not completely derailed unlike what is reported by our media.
Exactly, that's what I just found out, thank you.
Didn't work with my Discover Card but worked with my BOA VISA.
Sky News reporter and team under heavy fire in ambush near Kyiv
Sky News came under fire near Kyiv on Monday. Camera operator Richie Mockler took two rounds to his body armour, Stuart Ramsay was wounded.
Wild footage of Sky News journalists getting caught in an ambush and barely escaping.
Yes, I watched the video. May have tuned out a bit after he referred to Grozny as Gronsy though, honestly. I fail to believe that this war is playing out how Putin intended.
I've seen a few Twitter posts with stats like this..
We also know if Ukraine was full of Muslims and blacks, no one would care and surrounding countries wouldn't be so open to let them in evidence based on historical events.
Well for those interested in donating in some way, my Ukrainian friend here in Bay Area is working on moving funds to help soldiers (including his friends), I'll trust him with my money over other options.
medium.com
Help Ukrainian Heroes survive and fight with Russian invaders
Hi, my name is Denys Nevozhai. I’m a UX designer here in Silicon Valley. I’m originally from Ukraine where my family and friends were…
medium.com
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Bloody hell. If I'm looking at that right, that's a S300 anti-aircraft battery.
Sure as hell could put that to good use.
Depends on if the Russians abandoned it empty or loaded.
If it's fully loaded, that's a nice bit of kit to move to the nearest city.
Probably nukes. It also would have coalesced the Russian people into a cause they can get behind.
The reports were that there were only 4 amphibious landing ships moving west. I believe that is the number of those types of ships borrowed from the Baltic fleet for this operation. It may be they were just transferring back to the Baltic.
A rule of thumb is the ration of wounded to KIA is usually about 3:1 to about 5:1 in war. For the US the ratio has been going up in recent wars because battlefield medicine has saved more soldiers that would have died in previous wars. But if the Russians have lost about 10,000 KIA, they probably have 30-40,000 out of action due to being wounded. Remember there were also reports of COVID being rampant in the Russian troops just before launch. That's probably hurting their combat effectiveness too.
He strikes me as someone trying to get clicks. While he does have some points like Russian military doctrine is much more tolerant of casualties than any western army (the Russians took staggering losses in WW II), he got some facts very wrong and glossed over some others because he was trying to make a point the war situation for Ukraine is worse than it looks.
He kept referring to the big convoy as being 40 miles long. The Ukrainians came out the day after the western media picked up on it being 40 miles long and pointed out that was a mistranslation. At the time the convoy was about 40 miles from Kyiv. The actual convoy about about 4 miles long. This guy says that the convoy has about 15,000 troops like that is a huge number in a theater that already has 150,000 Russian troops in it. Most of that 15,000 are support troops driving the trucks and doing other support duties. I haven't seen any images of tanks in that convoy. The only combat vehicles are some BMP-3s, which are infantry vehicles and some anti-aircraft vehicles probably for protection of the convoy. The bulk of the convoy is unarmored and appear to be carrying supply.
This convoy set out the day after the leaked meeting notes from Putin's meeting in the Urals where they discussed that the supply situation was poor and the army would be out of supply by day 10. This convoy appears to be a response to this meeting IMO.
If the convoy really was 40 miles long, it would have over 10,000 vehicles (assuming each vehicle takes up 20 feet of space). In many parts of the convoy the vehicles are two abreast and I have seen them three abreast. BTW, this is poor convoy discipline. Standard practice in western convoy training is to leave at least one lane open so if a vehicle breaks down or something else happens, the other vehicles can maneuver around it. Having an open lane also allows engineering units to move up and repair or replace damaged bridges. The Ukrainians stalled the convoy by knocking out a bridge the convoy needed to cross. Because they are so bunched up, the engineers can't get to the front of the convoy to fix the bridge.
If there are only 15,000 people in the convoy, that would be a little over 1 person a vehicle.
With the convoy being only 4 miles long and doubled up in a lot of places, my estimate would be about 2000 vehicles, which I believe I saw was someone else's estimate.
Another thing he was talking about was that what we're hearing is from Ukrainian sources and the bulk of pictures are Russian vehicles. However, I have been looking carefully on Ukrainian Weapons Tracker and they are showing Ukrainian vehicle losses too. There just aren't that many of them.
I'm still skeptical that we're getting an unvarnished story. There is a Ukrainian spin to the news, but the objective evidence is that Russians are doing very poorly at taking objectives. From a strategic point of view, Kharkhiv is the hinge pin to NE Ukraine. It was that was in WW II too. There was a major battle fought for the city then. The Russians have completely failed despite Kharkhiv only being a few miles from their launch points.
This guy thinks the southern force and eastern forces and race up and surround Kyiv. The southern force is going OK, but they are moving at a snail's pace. The eastern force has completely failed. The force tasked with taking Sumy in the middle between Kharkhiv and Kyiv appears to be made up of Russian Marines (vehicles with the V on them), but that attack has completely collapsed.
The Russians have around 200,000 men in the fight, minus losses. The Ukrainians have over 600,000 trained soldiers and well over a million militia in the fight. Having more artillery and more planes in the air gives you the opportunity to destroy structures, but ultimately you need boots on the ground to take territory. Russia does not have enough boots.
I have been reading and listening to retired generals and intelligence people. The guy who runs this channel is a former infantryman. Enlisted people are trained to think tactically, ie what do you do if you're marching down the street and an enemy tank comes around the corner. Officers are trained to think more strategically, big picture stuff like what is the objective. To get to flag rank (general or admiral) you need to attend the military war college and study the really big picture stuff like operational planning, supply, and logistics.
The generals and intelligence people all agree, Russia has really botched this invasion. They lay out why the Russians are failing. Their analysis matches mine.
One of the reasons understand this stuff so well is I spent a lot of time in my youth playing Avalon Hill war games. For operational level and strategic level games (larger scale than a tactical game where you are pitting individual tanks and squads against each other) the way combat was usually resolved was with a combat table. You would count up the force value for the attacker vs the force value for the defender and then look it up in a table. Then you would roll a die or dice against the number in the table and if you rolled below that, you won. If you rolled above or tied, you lost. To win a battle as the attacker you needed at least 2:1 more force to even have a chance, and 4:1 was preferable for an almost certain win.
Looking at this from a war gaming perspective, the Russians have advantages in airpower and artillery, but when it comes to infantry units the Ukrainian regular army is a match for the Russians probaby better. The Ukrainian regular army is 200,000 strong. The regular reserves another 200,000, and the retired deep reserve makes up the last 200,000. The Ukrainians get terrain bonuses like defending a city and being on their home turf. Militia are often cannon fodder, but they can weaken an enemy before they make contact with the main force. The fact the militia are there makes fast movement impossible.
When moving into enemy territory any sane army will scout ahead and probe the enemy defenses before moving the main body. If they move the main body without scouting, the defenders will cut them to shreds as they stumble upon enemy outposts completely unprepared for a fight.
The guy who made this video seems to think the Ukrainian forces are non-existent in the middle of the country, so once objectives on the fringes of the country have been taken the rest is a cake walk. With 600,000 regular troops and a big militia, every corner of Ukraine is covered with Ukrainian troops of some kind. If the Southern force does move north, they are looking at a 2 month campaign too get to Kyiv at minimum. Taking the level of casualties they are now, they will be ground down to nothing long before they get there unless they get a massive influx of reinforcements.
Another factor this guy glosses over that the generals and intelligence people haven't is the differences in night fighting capabilities. The Ukrainians have training and the equipment to fight at night and the Russians have virtually no training and no equipment. The Ukrainians rule the night and use the large number of AT weapons provided from the west to hunt Russian vehicles at night.
Even for an army willing to take high casualties, that is going to be very demoralizing on the ground. That is insurgency warfare and it makes any invading army twitchy.
Very few. Even if their families weren't imprisoned, most people don't want to be cut off, possibly forever, from their families and friends and the only home they have ever known.
The ruble just took another big hit- now down to .8 cents. Should be interesting when/if the Moscow exchange reopens. What a nightmare that must be for Russian investors. No amount of state propaganda will be able to overcome the economic carnage.
It's not clear if MOEX will ever reopen at this point. It's now been decertified as an international exchange so even if it opened, no one can now trade on it since it is no longer recognized.
I think this is the key point, if nothing else to convoy is symbolic, destroying it would be a big plus, capturing some of the equipment even better.
The anti-aircraft trucks are probably why Ukraine hasn't extensively attacked the convoy with planes/drones. However, if those anti-aircraft trucks are eliminated, the convoy is a sitting duck.
It think this is why Russia is scrambling to deploy additional forces, and why Ukraine is counter-attacking in some areas, this could be quite a critical phase..
