I think this is the key point, if nothing else to convoy is symbolic, destroying it would be a big plus, capturing some of the equipment even better.
The anti-aircraft trucks are probably why Ukraine hasn't extensively attacked the convoy with planes/drones. However, if those anti-aircraft trucks are eliminated, the convoy is a sitting duck.
It think this is why Russia is scrambling to deploy additional forces, and why Ukraine is counter-attacking in some areas, this could be quite a critical phase..
The stories continue to be that the convoy hasn't moved much in many days. It's probably a lot priority for the Ukrainians.
Satellite images show 40-mile-long Russian military convoy north of Kyiv alongside burning buildings
I don't think it is a translation error. The convoy started about 4 miles long on Sunday 2/27, but an update on Monday 2/28 had the claim that it was 40 miles long, stretching from Antonov airbase to northern outskirts of Prybirsk, Ukraine. The claim was based on satellite imagery from a US based company Maxar Technologies, so there shouldn't be any translation involved. Google maps plots a 74 km (46 mile) route between the two points.
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Prybirs'k,+Kyiv+Oblast,+Ukraine,+07253/Antonov+International+Airport+(GML),+Hostomel',+Kyiv+Oblast,+Ukraine/
Here's a more updated video that was just released to show stitched images of the convoy. I guess it falls on how you define "convoy". There are huge gaps in between from those images, and not all sections have trucks side by side. Maybe the 4 mile section is more continuous and crowded without breaks.
40-mile-long Russian invasion convoy visible from space in new 3D satellite view (video)
I have been doing the same and agree that seems to be what they are all saying. From the logistics failure to the failure to take total control of airspace within the first day or two (the TB2s should have never been able to still be operational and strike Russian convoys, same with their fixed wing craft and SAM systems).
From captured Russian soldiers that say they went in with 3 days supply of food, some Ukrainian sources have suggested that Russia originally intended to take major objectives by day 3. But I hesitate to really believe that, as I believe that may be typical of a what a tank crew may carry in first place (with expectation of resupply). I wasn't able to find what is the max amount of food a tank crew may carry on an extended mission (anyone know?)
This article from the beginning of the week pointed out in the war in Kuwait in 1991, the U.S. Army’s 1st Armored Division nearly ran out of fuel on the 3 day and had to scramble an emergency convoy of fuel tankers. It also pointed out logistical issues happen in almost every campaign and not to be overly optimistic that Russia has already lost the war based on this (even though the cumulative effects may eventually lead to their defeat). It also pointed out the slow pace of advance at the time was not necessarily unusual (again due to logistics).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-logistics-invasion/
From recent articles, Russia is not the only one that needs to be concerned about logistics, as the Ukrainian forces should be starting to run into food and ammunition supply issues now. Given delivering by air is no longer viable (unlike before the war), it's all going by ground now and mostly through the Polish border. The issue is there is also lots of traffic from fleeing refugees. There is also fear that Russia may make moves to cut off this supply line.
I just noticed that first link was an article from the 28th. It claimed the convoy was extending from Prybirs'k (how its spelled on Google Maps at least) to the Antonov Airport. That's where it was on Monday, and as far as I can tell, it's still there. I have read that Ukrainian troops blew a critical bridge and the Russians have not built a temporary to get around it. The article also kind of contradicted itself saying that the convoy was 3.5 miles long on Sunday and was then 40 miles long on Monday the 28th? That seems kind of odd.
According to this nobody had gotten any satellite imagry since Monday because of cloudy conditions.
Maxar Releases Video Clips Of Russian Convoy Outside Kyiv, Ukraine – SatNews
My partner just read an article from Alexander Vindman and his analysis. The UK Defense Dept HQ has corroborated his analysis. The front part of the convoy now has dead batteries as well as no fuel. The Russians are trying to untangle the convoy by moving elements from the rear. They can only refuel and move 300m of vehicles at a time. It's going to take weeks to untangle this convoy.
I read elsewhere that three Russian commanders have been killed going to the front of the convoy to try and figure out what's going on only to be taken out by the Ukrainians lying in wait.
The Ukrainians are following the axiom that if your enemy is doing a good job of hurting themselves, don't contribute.
There are many cases where assaults outran their supply lines. Armor units are especially vulnerable to this. In France in 1944 after the Allied breakout the Germans were falling back to the German border so fast and the Allied advance was moving so fast that they almost ran out of fuel. Eisenhower got the trucks moving and every available truck was running 24/7 between the ports and the front to keep the advance going.
In an even bigger supply burn out the Russians planned a giant operation to tie down German forces on the Eastern Front and allow the western Allies to get established in Normandy as well as breakout. It was called Operation Bagration and was probably the largest single military operation in history. The Russians spent the spring compiling a massive stockpile of supplies just behind the lines as well as 1.6 million men, 3800 tanks, 2000 assault guns, 32000 rocket launchers, and 7800 aircraft.
They hit the Germand Army Group Center and basically obliterated it. The Russians blew a hole in the German line something like 500 miles long. But they burned up their mountain of supply breaking the line and had no supply left to exploit the opening. If they had, they could have rolled straight on through to Berlin with virtually nothing to stop them.
Russian doctrine in WW II was to hang extra supplies on the outside of tank when doing an assault. The Russians were dependent on American made trucks, which were reliable, but not available in the kind of numbers the Americans had. They never got as efficient at moving supply as the Americans.
Erik Rudel who was Germany's Stuka ace talked in his book about attacking the Russians when they were breaking through to East Prussia. He noted each tank had a couple of barrels of fuel on the back deck for the assault. Getting hit from the air, the diesel in those barrels burned eventually burning the tanks.
My partner just found out more about that supply column. Here is the link to the discussion. Message #13 says why it got 40 miles long.
More information, the Russians are scrounging armor that has been parked out in the weather for three decades and trying to send them to the front. Those tanks will be less reliable than the ones breaking down all over Ukraine.
Additionally people have been analyzing the air dropped munitions the Russians are using. Almost all are dumb bombs. Only a few Russian aircraft have the capability to drop smart bombs anyway. They don't have the sort of laser bomb sites western aircraft have to drop dumb munitions. It's believed that the Russians burned up their entire supply of smart bombs in Syria and they have none left. They also have no ability to make more with the sanctions.
The faster the plane is going, and the higher altitude it is, the harder it is to hit anything. Both hurt aim. The western countries have compensated for these draw backs with laser bomb sights, various things like GPS for targeting, and lots of pilot training.
I have heard several people talk about the training differences. Russian pilots are lucky to get 100 hours of flight time a year. Western pilots get at least 240 hours and spend a lot of time in simulators when not in the air. Western cockpits are also carefully designed with ergonomic engineers (I worked with some at Boeing commercial) to make everything in the cockpit as intuitive and easy to remember as possible. Russian aircraft, not so much.
So the Russian pilots who have had little training are trying to drop dumb munitions flying at altitudes higher than their training (because of Ukrainian AA) and trying to hit targets when going 500 mph with primitive bomb sites. The bombs are going all over the place.
Russia's birth rate is already one of the lowest in the world, well below replenishment. The population of Russia has been gradually declining since 2014 because people straight up stopped giving birth after the annexation of Crimea and sanctions started making it unaffordable to have children in Russia.
That said, Russia is a nation with a population of 144 million people. It would take a very very long time to depopulate Russia unless births dropped to zero. Just look at Japan if you want to see how long it takes to depopulate a nation with a high starting population even with the world's lowest birth rate.
I saw something the other day that about 1 million Russians a year are emigrating even before the war. Russia has also hit the same demographic problem Japan hit in the 1990s, the number of people of retirement age is greater than the working population which creates a net drag on the economy. Japan will recover when the large elderly population passes on.
The life expectancy in Russia is shorter than Japan, so they will be stuck in this economic duldrums for a shorter time, but the sanctions will have a much greater impact, and much faster.
. Legal immigration into UK at least is not cheap and most Russians could not afford it, the EU has similar fee’s as I would guess does the US.
. This is genuinely what her grandma believe. During Covid Russians were told their vaccine was the first to be successful too (when it was at least a year behind most of the West).
