No, they are not transferring back to the Baltic. At least not yet.
We'll see what happens with them.
Useful RUSI article re Russian air force status
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
rusi.org
Good article. The Russian involvement in Syria was really a small operation. This has a list of unit strengths on the right bar down a ways. They committed aircraft by the handful only. A total of 8 Su-34 for example.
I was surprised they are using the aircraft at low altitude. I read that the presence of MANPADS in such high numbers was going to drive the helicopters out completely and push the fighter bombers to above 10,000 feet. Apparently they are going in low instead. Dumb move when your opponent's AA is prevalent at low altitude.
The Russians should own the skies at this point. Things would be even worse for them if the Ukrainians got those aircraft from eastern Europe. I expect the Ukrainians will be re-equipping with F-16s after this. It will take a year or so for the pilots to get trained, but their air force will be much more modern and compatible with NATO. The US has something like 4000 F-16 in mothballs that can be put back into service in a matter of weeks.
Russian troops in the north are starving, their convoy is stuck dead in the water, they are running out of smart weapons, their vehicles are breaking down or being abandoned all over Ukraine, and their air force is a wet squib. Their military may be large, but it's quality is on par with the Arab armies Israel has fought over the years.
I've been surprised at how bad they are, and most of the experts I read are too. I knew the Russian military was not as good as most of NATO, but I didn't know they were this bad.
I absolutely, positively do not want to find out, but if all their other equipment is so poorly maintained and poor quality, I wonder how bad their ICBMs are? They have been sitting unused for many decades at this point. The warheads have to be renewed from time to time (the fissionable material degrades). Of course USAF doctrine keeps up on the maintenance like clockwork, and I'm sure France and the UK do the same. Who knows what state Russia's arsenal is in?
Again, it's one of those things I (and probably everybody) does not want to find out. But I was wondering about that earlier.
Isn't the tall chap Bashar al-Assad ?
en.wikipedia.org
Does this make it two Su-34 lost by the Russians ? Using that aircraft to drop dumb bombs in this environment is lunacy
I think you're right. I thought he looked familiar.
I have heard about 2 Su-34s brought down so far.
The rumors are the Russians used up all their smart munitions so they are using their best fighter bomber to drop dumb munitions willy nilly.