SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
More from Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges and the Renew Democracy Initiative:
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
BitJam
Active Member
Russia still hopes for a quick victory
Anders defines a "quick victory" as winning within the next six months.
Anders defines a "quick victory" as winning within the next six months.
Tiger
Active Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
More on Bakhmut. Allegedly:
But don't think this is Bakhmut. Don't know when and where (the film below where he says the ground is frozen)...
But don't think this is Bakhmut. Don't know when and where (the film below where he says the ground is frozen)...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Really hoping that the reason Bakhmut isn't getting reinforced more is b/c the Ukrainians are about to counteroffense like they did 2 months ago and surprise the Russians.
The Ukrainians don't want to lose any territory, but for them Bahkmut is a bleeding operation. The Russians are dumb enough to go all in there so the Ukrainians have a reasonable force there with the goal of causing as much damage to the Russians as possible.
On a strategic level it's a very dumb move for Russia. They need all their troops to defend the ground they have left. Getting about 500 a day killed in Bahkmut (I'm assuming the bulk of the heavy losses the Ukrainians are reporting each day are around there) is just bleeding away forces they need for defense on a useless goal. if the Russians capture Bahkmut it means nothing to the overall war picture.
On a strategic level it's a very dumb move for Russia. They need all their troops to defend the ground they have left. Getting about 500 a day killed in Bahkmut (I'm assuming the bulk of the heavy losses the Ukrainians are reporting each day are around there) is just bleeding away forces they need for defense on a useless goal. if the Russians capture Bahkmut it means nothing to the overall war picture.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
I assume that Putin just wants ANY sort of victory to pretend things aren't all doom and gloom. So from that PR perspective, his best chance seems to be to take a target that U would be willing to give. It's stupid long-term, but the other 'benefit' is that it kills off more criminals and minority groups that Russia no longer needs to worry about.
Man, this feels so callous and jaded...
Day 281, December 1st. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast • WarTranslated
Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak English voice-over video by Privateer Station: Original video in Russian: 🔥 Battlefield update: 🔥 Zaporozhye: reports of 🇷🇺 regrouping, likely they are building a defense. 🔥 Avdiivka-Bakhmut: 🇷🇺...
wartranslated.com
Arestovych and Feygin say that Ukraine will not lose Bakhmut. Russia already lost momentary advantage.
I know we all follow ISW but they shared this from criticalthreats.org...
"The wise-seeming counsel of seeking compromise with Russia at a point of high leverage for Ukraine is a dangerous folly now. It merely puts off and makes even more dangerous the risks we fear today. It might make sense to buy time in this way if time favored us. But it does not—time favors our adversaries. Accepting risk now to reduce the risk of worse disaster in the future is the wisest and most prudent course of action for the US, NATO, and Ukraine."
THE LONG-TERM RISKS OF A PREMATURE CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE
"The wise-seeming counsel of seeking compromise with Russia at a point of high leverage for Ukraine is a dangerous folly now. It merely puts off and makes even more dangerous the risks we fear today. It might make sense to buy time in this way if time favored us. But it does not—time favors our adversaries. Accepting risk now to reduce the risk of worse disaster in the future is the wisest and most prudent course of action for the US, NATO, and Ukraine."
He talks about plan A or plan B. My partner commented it's plan C: there is no plan. Russia is flailing around like a 5 year old who just learned chess and is moving pieces around at random.
It is, but that's Putin's way of doing things.
In other news Trent Telenko has an observation about Russian fuel trucks. I'm not sure I'm convinced from his one data point, but the Russians are fielding antique fuel trucks which is another indication things aren't going well.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
Tiger
Active Member
"Putin explains Scholz why he terrorises Ukrainians with strikes on energy facilities"
www.agenzianova.com
switzerlandtimes.ch
"According to the Kremlin, the preferred way to resolve the situation in Ukraine is diplomacy, but the United States must recognize the recently annexed Ukrainian regions"
Telephone conversation between Putin and Scholz: focus on the Ukrainian situation
Telephone conversation between Putin and Scholz: focus on the Ukrainian situation Read all the latest news in real time on Agenzia Nova
www.agenzianova.com
Putin accuses Scholz of "destructive line" in a phone call | Switzerland Times
hour-long conversation Putin accuses Scholz of “destructive line” in a phone call In a telephone conversation with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Germany and its allies of…
switzerlandtimes.ch
"According to the Kremlin, the preferred way to resolve the situation in Ukraine is diplomacy, but the United States must recognize the recently annexed Ukrainian regions"
Ukraine: Putin opens to talks but says no to USA - World conditions - World Today News
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains ‘open to talks to secure Russia’s interests’explained the spokesman of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, because Moscow ‘considers the peaceful diplomatic route as the preferable way to achieve its objectives’. But for Russia, it is impossible to accept the...
www.world-today-news.com
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"Putin explains Scholz why he terrorises Ukrainians with strikes on energy facilities"
Telephone conversation between Putin and Scholz: focus on the Ukrainian situation
Telephone conversation between Putin and Scholz: focus on the Ukrainian situation Read all the latest news in real time on Agenzia Nova
Putin accuses Scholz of "destructive line" in a phone call | Switzerland Times
hour-long conversation Putin accuses Scholz of “destructive line” in a phone call In a telephone conversation with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Germany and its allies of…
"According to the Kremlin, the preferred way to resolve the situation in Ukraine is diplomacy, but the United States must recognize the recently annexed Ukrainian regions"
Ukraine: Putin opens to talks but says no to USA - World conditions - World Today News
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains ‘open to talks to secure Russia’s interests’explained the spokesman of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, because Moscow ‘considers the peaceful diplomatic route as the preferable way to achieve its objectives’. But for Russia, it is impossible to accept the...www.world-today-news.com
The denial of the truth in that one is strong...
re trent's thing on oil trucks. Russia has logs of modern road trucks, hundreds of thousands. They have road trucks with tanks. The issue is simply the last mile which is a pita but not the end of the world. Theet don't have good offroad trucks (well they don't have quantity). In the winter this won't matter as you could drive almost anything across a frozen field, my f350 does this constantly, our road tractor trailers are driving across hay fields and corn fields to get to log landings. It's really just the mud. In 4 weeks you'll be able to drive a road tanker across any field in Russia/Belarus/Northern Ukraine. Bridges will still matter, those trucks won't cross streams. Anyway, I think he's overblowing the magnitude of the issue but on track with the logistical problems of a nation designed to wage war with trains. It is bizzare to me that they copied the german army train centric force projection when what won WWII was the truck fleet that the USA deployed both in the USSR and in Africa, Italy, and Europe.
If we want to stop this war we need to help Ukraine destroy every rail crossing from Russia to Ukraine and indeed those rail logistics just inside the russian borders. That will paralyze things and favor interior lines which favors Ukraine. Russia has spent their energy terrorizing civilians rather than destroying rail logistics inside Ukraine. Terrorists and idiots.
If we want to stop this war we need to help Ukraine destroy every rail crossing from Russia to Ukraine and indeed those rail logistics just inside the russian borders. That will paralyze things and favor interior lines which favors Ukraine. Russia has spent their energy terrorizing civilians rather than destroying rail logistics inside Ukraine. Terrorists and idiots.
To be fair the Russians were one of the most dependent armies on rail at the start of WW II. They only moved from rail to trucks a bit when they got many, many thousands of trucks from the US. They still had a very weak domestic truck market after the war using the WW II American trucks until they completely died.
The Germans were so dependent on trains because they had fuel problems. They could run trains on coal, but oil was in short supply from June 1941 to the end of the war. In 1944 they demechanized to a large degree and a lot of units that used truck transport ended up reverting to horse drawn wagons.
Telenko has pointed out in the past that the Russian logistics chain is stuck in the 1940s. Throughout the Cold War the threat from the Warsaw Pact on western Europe overhung everything, but in reality with their poor logistics, any invasion of western Europe would have broken down a few kilometers from the end of the Soviet rail system.
Several years ago I read an article comparing trucks from the various nations that participated in WW II. American made trucks are pretty common among war vehicle collectors today. Many armies kept their US made trucks from the war into the 1970s, including France. But trucks made by other countries fetch a high price on the collector's market and are hard to find. The reason is most of the non-American trucks wore out before the war was over.
At the start of the war the US had the most reliable military trucks in the world because the US had the largest internal market for civilian trucks. With a large country and a huge part of it dedicated to agriculture, there was a huge internal demand for trucks. When the US Army went looking for a new military truck, all the US truck makers put forward militarized versions of their civilian trucks, which met 90+% of the Army's needs off the shelf. Because of all that experience making trucks in a highly competitive environment, US made trucks were extremely reliable.
Most other countries in the war were geographically smaller with full rail networks and had less demand for civilian trucks. Horse transport was still common in rural areas in most of these areas. Their armies had to buy trucks that were designed from the ground up and they ended up less reliable than their American counterparts.
The Allied countries just switched to using American trucks for the most part with some small domestic production. The Germans were caught between a fuel shortage and a truck shortage by late 1943, so they demechanized the non-combat units and pressed every horse they could find into service. They also became even more dependent on rail for long distance movement.
The old Avalon Hill game, The Russian Campaign has a big emphasis on control of rail lines. They were vital for both sides from the beginning of the war on the Eastern Front.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Gotta laugh (not that I'm at all sure Navalny will be the answer, even if he survives)
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Being parked in Kazan, east of Moscow, seems preferable to being sent to Ukraine. Being mobilized and then doing nothing is probably annoying, but if they're fed and warm, it seems they should just play cards and keep quiet. Maybe the part about being fed and warm is a problem.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I hope this is true, probably not, but...
It is The New York Post, which is not the most reliable journalism outlet.
