-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
alstoralset
Man from another place
Some promising developments:-
I still think it is possible to negotiate a deal both sides can live with.
It if all about where lines are drawn on maps, and the percentage split of any gas royalties.
The rebel areas where Putin's justification, and they seem to be the more effective and mostly highly motivated fighters on the Russian side.
10-15 years down the track with Ukraine making good economic progress as part of the EU, they may decide they want to re-join Ukraine.
In terms of regime change in Russia, none of the Russian soldiers will be happy about being sent to this war, the Russian public will not be happy especially when they have more of the facts. Even if all sanctions were dropped today, the economic impact on Russia will last for decades. many Western businesses will not come back, the EU will move away from Russian gas ASAP,. Whether Putin survives the next 1-2 years, makes little difference, his place in history is secure.
After a negotiated peace Russia will be no threat to Ukraine, and definitely no threat to NATO, however their nukes of all kinds remain a threat, that is why a deal is a good outcome.
I still think it is possible to negotiate a deal both sides can live with.
It if all about where lines are drawn on maps, and the percentage split of any gas royalties.
The rebel areas where Putin's justification, and they seem to be the more effective and mostly highly motivated fighters on the Russian side.
10-15 years down the track with Ukraine making good economic progress as part of the EU, they may decide they want to re-join Ukraine.
In terms of regime change in Russia, none of the Russian soldiers will be happy about being sent to this war, the Russian public will not be happy especially when they have more of the facts. Even if all sanctions were dropped today, the economic impact on Russia will last for decades. many Western businesses will not come back, the EU will move away from Russian gas ASAP,. Whether Putin survives the next 1-2 years, makes little difference, his place in history is secure.
After a negotiated peace Russia will be no threat to Ukraine, and definitely no threat to NATO, however their nukes of all kinds remain a threat, that is why a deal is a good outcome.
I think they could stop now, all indications are Ukraine has more than enough weapons to get the job done,.This is not The Onion
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/4BLUAO5U6RM6NHEQV5FUQ2VEMQ.jpg)
Russia calls on EU, NATO to stop arms supplies to Ukraine
Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries on Saturday to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine, the Russian RIA news agency said.www.reuters.com
The economy of Russia is over like you said. And sanctions may only roll back to a certain extent if Putin agrees to pay for the damages he has done to Ukraine or else there's very little goodwill from the rest of the world. What Putin did here was absolutely amateur hour and the coalition of harsh sanctions was absolutely a masterpiece of deterrent.
Also China can kiss any hopes of invading Taiwan goodbye. The world is ready to topple any economy without firing a single shot on principle alone. If Russia concedes here, the world comes out way ahead from a safety standpoint as the interconnect of globalization will prevent most future conflicts going forward.
You know based on this video, those who were following Russia's development surrounding Ukraine has determined that an invasion was inevitable last November. While we were all searching for clues to why the market massive sold off(especially growth stocks) thinking it was perhaps tax loss harvesting or maybe fed rate increases...the real answer may have been because of this war since nothing the Fed has said seems to be new for over a year now.
CLK350
Member
China is playing the long game, also remember Mao's adage "when weak, talk big, when strong just act". These days China is strong, so no need for aggressive talk* w/o action. My take is China could decide any moment to take over Taiwan, but it's not in her interest now, economic price would be too great re multiple tech agreements etc. China is only shaking her fists to assert her displeasure at the faction in power in Taiwan now, which wants "independence" rather than the previous well understood quid pro quo of the ultimate One China.
(*) For example, China isn't hesitating to take control of the South China Sea, nobody is really standing up to her.
BTW My guess is that the "independence/ separatist" movement is really funded by some external troublemakers (the CIA used to do that, BTW, toppling governments to install more pro US governments .. with rather poor success .. Iran, Vietnam, Peru, etc etc see Confessions of an economic hitman )
All IMHO of course, and I may be completely wrong
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You would head to Nur-Sultan, Kazahkstan (obviously). It's about 1,350 km by train.
Then Tehran, or whereever you've got family / support.
new_sneakers
Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
If you are talking about the DPP, although they have members that follow the "independence" angle, the current government is actually more centrist. Although they have control of most of the government, overall they have not pushed for "independence" beyond the status quo. Instead they emphasize that Taiwan already has de facto independence as the "Republic of China", and it is unnecessary to declare independence (although obviously they are still making efforts to get more recognition internationally).
Taiwan independence movement - Wikipedia
There are however efforts by some in DPP to amend the constitution to cut all possible ties with China: "Chen’s proposal included eliminating the constitution’s call for eventual reunification, delineating the state’s territory as only that under its current control, and the removal of all provincial-level governments". However, the terms for amending the constitution was made very onerous, so it won't be easy (article details it).
Taiwan parties split over constitutional reform – SupChina
However, after the current president leaves office, the direction may change depending on if those "independence" factions gain more power within DPP.
This is highly unlikely in the Taiwan case. Look at a bit of history on Taiwan and its indigenous peoples.
Taiwanese indigenous peoples - Wikipedia
A large majority of their population speaks Taiwanese Hokkien (not just Mandarin like mainland China):
Taiwanese Hokkien - Wikipedia
There was also the period of Japanese occupation and many people have Japanese blood or strong Japanese sympathies (look no further than their first democratically elected president: he served in the Imperial Japanese Army during WW2):
Lee Teng-hui - Wikipedia
Then there is the fact the current government started out as one party state with a large imported population from the retreating KMT after they lost the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan was under martial law during the white terror period, with very strong anti-communism tendencies:
White Terror (Taiwan) - Wikipedia
Basically it's a mix of different cultures/bloodlines and languages, and while there is a large portion that shares ties with mainland China, there is also a large portion that have little to no ties. The calls for independence is because the population's ties to mainland China comes with a dark history, and the younger population feels even further removed, given they have been living under a society that has completely different values.
Also, the fact that there never was any probability of communist control of Taiwan (outside of a military takeover), made it unnecessary for the USA to do a coup like in other places. The natural direction Taiwan was heading (democracy and more ties to other democratic powers) pretty much already ensures Taiwan will have close ties to the US, especially with the saber rattling of mainland China in the background.
Last edited:
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I should add also that a major difference between Taiwan and Ukraine, in terms of US military support, is that we have the Taiwan Relations Act, which is direct descendent of a previous Mutual Defense Treaty (from before we recognized the PRC as governing mainland China).
Taiwan Relations Act - Wikipedia
Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty - Wikipedia
This act requires:
"the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities"
and also:
"to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."
Full text here:
https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/
So while it does not explicitly state we will put in troops, it puts us under legal obligation to provide defensive arms and also maintain the ability to come to their defense if they were ever put in danger (even if we may not decide to use it; that is the "strategic ambiguity" part). It's not quite like NATO (where the NATO members are obligated to send military force), but it's getting close other than the ambiguity part.
We have no such equivalent long term agreement with Ukraine, which is why our hands are tied and Russia does not really have to be concerned about the possibility of the US sending troops.
So although the media has made a lot about US not sending their military into Ukraine being something that may make China more confident about invading Taiwan, it's not really the case given the legal backdrop is different (even putting aside the fact the response/effect in terms of sanctions and the failures of the Russian military should actually dissuade China from trying). A more apt analogy to the Taiwan situation is if the US refused to send their military to defend a NATO member that was invaded, something like that might embolden China.
Last edited:
May or may not be stronger than the Budapest memorandum in which the U.S agreed to give Ukraine assurance of their own security.
Germans telling Russians they are not fighting Nazisms since they would know, they were experts in Nazism.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
The Budapest memorandum is not even close. The only similar provisions are this:
"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;"
This part only assures that the US would not invade Ukraine, but does not state the US must defend Ukraine if they were invaded by others.
"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;"
This part only kicks in if nuclear weapons are used, and it only mentions "assistance" that must be obtained through UN Security Council action.
The US is already providing "assistance", but a nuclear weapon has not been used yet (and hopefully won't be), and any action must go through the UN Security Council (where it would be vetoed by Russia anyways).
Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances, 1994
There are people making handwavy arguments about US/UK not doing their part under this memorandum, but it doesn't hold up to scrutiny (even though Russia certainly isn't holding up their end).
And to bring it back to the point, that memorandum does not have agreements about providing defensive weapons to Ukraine (as such their military equipment is way outdated compared to what Taiwan has), nor does it require the US maintain the capability of coming to their defense.
Last edited:
Some news tonight about Poland possibly providing fighter jets (old Migs) to Ukraine. That could be a slippery slope for NATO involvement.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Great video rollup of tweets regarding Ukraine, Starlink, and Elon from our very own @DaveT 
Elon Musk speaks with Ukraine President Zelensky (Ep. 552) | Dave Lee on Investing (Youtube)
Elon Musk speaks with Ukraine President Zelensky (Ep. 552) | Dave Lee on Investing (Youtube)
IMO that is just a bit of extra pressure on Russia ahead of the next round of negotiations...
But it if did happen, it may allow Ukraine to attack earlier and relieve some city sieges.
The Russians are going to protest, but they haven't been able to do anything about previous arms supplies, or foreign fighters.
Best way to handle this is say, nothing has been decided.
CLK350
Member
Thanks for clarification/ corrections - this whole situation is quite murky, I was shooting from the hip* - my general impression is that previously (under KMT rule) Taiwan was doing quite well, raising everybody's standard of living (not genociding its minority native people, quite the opposite actually) - there was no need really to clamor for a change in the status quo. That being the agreed upon notion of "One China" where both sides agreed to coexist and accept their differences with the notion that eventually aka in a few decades there would be no real reason not to unite Taiwan to China (presumably when the standards of living would be equal in each country). So the previous animosity and claims from ea side to liberate the other was gone.
Regarding the statement re USA making a coup against Taiwan I was referring to the attempted coup of the CIA (in the 50's ? ) to overthrow and replace Chiang Kai Shek by a USA approved other leader more amenable to "US interests" (meaning probably some US corp like United Fruit/ Chiquita ). That coup was foisted as the general in charge of the coup had second thoughts and confessed to Chiang Kai Shek
(*) For when I have time, let me know (if you know) of a good overview of the current situation in Taiwan w/ recent past.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I guess you are talking about General Sun here:
Sun Li-jen
There was no actual evidence of a coup attempt. It was because Chiang's son Ching-kuo (who was the head of secret police at the time in 1955 in Taiwan) was educated in the Soviet Union and pushed organizing the ROC military like the Soviet army. Sun instead was educated by Virginia Military Institute and was opposed to this. Sun was more well liked by the Americans during WW2, so accusing him of a coup was a convenient way to get rid of him. He was placed into house arrest for more than 3 decades (until Ching-kuo died in 1988). He passed away in 1990. Sun was exonerated posthumously in 2001 after a government investigation.
There actually were two possible attempts where the Americans could have assassinated Chiang during WW2, due to Americans feeling like he was not putting his full effort into fighting the Japanese (he saved some troops so that he can fight Mao after the war) and because he was pretty much a dictator (he had secret police). The Americans felt he would get in the way in the fight against the Japanese. The US general at the time Stilwell did like General Sun way more than Chiang. However, after fighting the Japanese with Chiang (where his forces put up an almost suicidal resistance), they gave up on the idea by 1944, and Stilwell's replacement Wedemeyer even admired Chiang. Chiang warnings about a communist take over of China after the war pretty much came true.
Long article here:
Assassinating Chiang Kai-shek
However, there is no credible evidence that there were US-backed coup attempts against him after he fled to Taiwan. By then, America's top enemy were the communists and a staunch anti-communist like Chiang was just the right person to lead Taiwan.
In terms of Taiwan independence, the wiki article actually has a good overview, including some recent opinion polls and the various administrations of Taiwan:
Taiwan independence movement - Wikipedia
Last edited:
