Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Dangerous Fish]

Could this all be because the Germans are afraid their tank may not do well in actual combat? The M1A1 has actually seen combat so the US knows how well it fights.

I don't think that's the reason. It seems to me to be more game playing than anything else.
I realise Germany have are now 3rd in terms of their contribution to UKR defence, but the way they have conducted themselves doesn't make them look good.

Meanwhile, the UK just committed to supplying another 600 Brimstone missiles and Denmark are sending those howitzers.
Overall, there does seem to be more of what UKR needs pouring in.

I still come back to ATACMS, though. I appreciate GLSDB could do a lot of good, but a lot can happen between now and when it's likely to arrive on the battlefield. A swift ending is what's needed, not a long drawn out slog.

Hit the combined Russian forces really hard in the coming weeks/months and their collective resolve will crumble. Mass surrender/desertion maybe? A coup at the top? Who knows how it might end, but it needs to end.

And what's going on here?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616081111351980032

An AA system on a Moscow roof top indeed. Justification for a forthcoming full mobilization perhaps? "We must protect the Motherland at all costs!!!!!"

 

[nativewolf]

Thought tanks were only useful in Ukraine when the ground is cold and hard.

Can a Bradley navigate through mud?

Tracked, so yes . They will do as well as anything in snow/mud.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Thought tanks were only useful in Ukraine when the ground is cold and hard.

Can a Bradley navigate through mud?

The mud will eventually dry out...

The ground could freeze before that happens, but that is starting to seem more and more unlikely...

 

[JRP3]

Bradley is much lighter than a tank, correct? If so less ground pressure should mean it's less likely to sink in mud unless tracks are proportionally smaller.

 

[petit_bateau]

Bradley is much lighter than a tank, correct? If so less ground pressure should mean it's less likely to sink in mud unless tracks are proportionally smaller.

Tracks are indeed proportionately smaller. Most APC/IFV ground bearing pressures are fairly similar to their companion MBT ground bearing pressures. Specifically the M1A1 is 13.8 psi and the M2A2 Bradley is 9.3 psi . I'm not sure how much add-on armour etc is included in these numbers.

M1 Abrams Main Battle Tank

IFV M2 Bradley

And to put that in perspective a human male walks at about 8psi.

Ground pressure - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

=========================================

For those who don't understand why all Germans - even/especially Scholz - is so careful about authorising each successive set of arms for the Ukraine defence, it is because it is specifically hard-wired into the German Constitution that it is an illegal (criminal) act in many circumstances. This is the German Constitution that was specifically written by the Western Allies (esp USA, UK, France) after WW2 to avoid the issues that plagued the post-WW1 outcome. So the German Government needs to be able to prove that no war of aggression might be prepared for by releasing (any) of these items. Otherwise as individuals they literally go to jail for signing the release authorisations. And remember folks that we in the West wrote that constitution and then indoctrinated 70-years of Germans to absolutely respect it.

---

German Constitution:Article 26
[Securing international peace]

(1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

(2) Weapons designed for warfare may be manufactured, transported or marketed only with the permission of the Federal Government. Details shall be regulated by a federal law.

And then:
War Weapons Control Act (Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz, KrWaffKontrG)

Section 6 Denial of a Licence

(1) There shall be no entitlement to the granting of a licence.

(2) A licence may be denied especially if

1. there is a reason to assume that its granting would militate against the interest of the Federal Republic of Germany in maintaining good relations with other countries;

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] For those who don't understand why all Germans - even/especially Scholz - is so careful about authorising each successive set of arms for the Ukraine defence, it is because it is specifically hard-wired into the German Constitution that it is an illegal (criminal) act in many circumstances. This is the German Constitution that was specifically written by the Western Allies (esp USA, UK, France) after WW2 to avoid the issues that plagued the post-WW1 outcome. So the German Government needs to be able to prove that no war of aggression might be prepared for by releasing (any) of these items. Otherwise as individuals they literally go to jail for signing the release authorisations. And remember folks that we in the West wrote that constitution and then indoctrinated 70-years of Germans to absolutely respect it.

---

German Constitution:Article 26
[Securing international peace]

(1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

(2) Weapons designed for warfare may be manufactured, transported or marketed only with the permission of the Federal Government. Details shall be regulated by a federal law.

And then:
War Weapons Control Act (Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz, KrWaffKontrG)

Section 6 Denial of a Licence

(1) There shall be no entitlement to the granting of a licence.

(2) A licence may be denied especially if

1. there is a reason to assume that its granting would militate against the interest of the Federal Republic of Germany in maintaining good relations with other countries;

I don't understand how the defense of Ukraine can be illegal under German law...

Why not just sign a contract with Zelenskyy that Ukraine isn't allowed to use German tanks on territory that isn't Ukraine (or some such)?...

And what is Ukraine going to do? Form an armor column and set off towards Moscow?...

I'm more inclined to think that it's the Dictator's and others threats of Nuclear weapons that are at play here... And unfortunately that is somewhat understandable. Germany isn't a nuclear power. And unfortunately as it would be, the only other Nuclear power that can really stand up to the Dictator is the United States. There's also the UK and France, but they don't seem to have the numbers of tanks that are needed here. They also don't have anywhere near a comparable number of nukes... There's also China. But they are not on our side.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't understand how the defense of Ukraine can be illegal under German law...

Why not just sign a contract with Zelenskyy that Ukraine isn't allowed to use German tanks on territory that isn't Ukraine (or some such)?...

And what is Ukraine going to do? Form an armor column and set off towards Moscow?...

I'm more inclined to think that it's the Dictator's and others threats of Nuclear weapons that are at play here... And unfortunately that is somewhat understandable. Germany isn't a nuclear power. And unfortunately as it would be, the only other Nuclear power that can really stand up to the Dictator is the United States. There's also the UK and France, but they don't seem to have the numbers of tanks that are needed here. They also don't have anywhere near a comparable number of nukes... There's also China. But they are not on our side.

*** Because a tank is an offensive weapon. That is exactly what they were designed for. And have been repeatedly used for ever since they were designed. ***

!!! Especially by the Germans, for offensive warfare !!!!

German Constitution:Article 26 : [Securing international peace] : (1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

*** This is precisely why one has to very carefully write the legal opinion inside German government that allows Scholz to sign an export authorisation in good faith. (Because we all know that once they've been exported any such contract as you suggest signing, is not enforceable). ***

 

[BitJam]

Let's talk about Ukraine, tanks, and sliding cards....

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

*** Because a tank is an offensive weapon. That is exactly what they were designed for. And have been repeatedly used for ever since they were designed. ***

!!! Especially by the Germans, for offensive warfare !!!!

German Constitution:Article 26 : [Securing international peace] : (1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

*** This is precisely why one has to very carefully write the legal opinion inside German government that allows Scholz to sign an export authorisation in good faith. (Because we all know that once they've been exported any such contract as you suggest signing, is not enforceable). ***

But if Ukraine doesn't have any offensive weapons – then how are they going to be able to retake the parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied by the Dictator?... And apparently the Germans are OK with sending tanks if the US also sends tanks... So the sending tanks part doesn't seem to be the problem here...

 

[bobby g]

I hope we give them these, but don't announce it. Would be fantastic to wake up one morning and hear of 2 dozen bases in occupied territory just go BOOM.

Announcing is good, two weeks after delivery and training. Boom and then announcement.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge​

A joint statement by the defence ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.

From: Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP
Published 19 January 2023

[...]

Therefore, we commit to collectively pursuing delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defence, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defence. This substantial assistance to Ukraine comes from our own national stocks, and resources illustrating the mutual understanding of the severity of the situation and our commitment to urgently increase and accelerate support for Ukraine. Having made this “Tallinn Pledge”, we shall head to the Ukraine Defence Group meeting in Ramstein tomorrow 20 January and urge other Allies and partners to follow suit and contribute their own planned packages of support as soon as possible to ensure a Ukrainian battlefield victory in 2023. [My underline and bold.] [..."

Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge

A joint statement by the defence ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.

www.gov.uk

 

[nwdiver]

Sweden is sending ~50 CV90s to Ukraine. According to this Canadian Soldier they're the best IFV in the world.

This hesitancy to send Ukraine the ~300 MBTs and ~600IFVs it's requesting is insane. It's like grandparents hesitant to use their 529 because they 'might' have another grandkid. Why spend BILLIONS on military kit if you don't want to use it for the specific purpose you developed it for?

 

[Surfer of Life]

Sweden is sending ~50 CV90s to Ukraine. According to this Canadian Soldier they're the best IFV in the world.

This hesitancy to send Ukraine the ~300 MBTs and ~600IFVs it's requesting is insane. It's like grandparents hesitant to use their 529 because they 'might' have another grandkid. Why spend BILLIONS on military kit if you don't want to use it for the specific purpose you developed it for?

From 5:45 on I see a minuscule, exposed, spindly track drive sprocket on the right end of the tread. Looks extremely vulnerable.

All I know is what I see with my own eyes.

 

[SageBrush]

*** Because a tank is an offensive weapon.

My snarky side asks why they were built in the first place

 

[wdolson]

These are probably part of the transport of 1275 pieces of heavy equipment that arrived a week ago by boat in Vlissingen in The Netherlands. It was said they will be used in Poland/Lithuania by the 13th Light Brigade of the US Army. Here's a report from a Dutch newspaper with a lot of pictures.

Amerikaans spektakel: leger is begonnen met uitladen van 1275 tanks in Vlissingen

In de haven van Vlissingen is het Amerikaanse leger begonnen met het uitladen van 1275 tanks, artilleriegeschut en ander militair materieel. De gevechtsvoertuigen gaan naar Polen en Litouwen, waar ze gebruikt worden door een Amerikaanse legereenheid uit Texas. Zij lossen collega’s af voor een...

www.pzc.nl

I think you mean the 13th Light Cavalry? Currently the 2nd squadron of the 13th Cav is active and that's part of the 1st Armored Division (3rd brigade). One brigade doesn't use anywhere near 1275 vehicles. A Cavalry unit is basically armed recon. Each squadron made up of 4 companies and a headquarters section. One is armor and the others are infantry with Bradleys. A company of tanks is around 14, I think an infantry company has a few more than that. So a squadron has around 100 vehicles.

1275 may be close to the total number of vehicles in the entire 1st Armored. If the US really has shipped that many to Europe, there may be a plan to hand a lot of them off to Ukraine. It's a curious thing if there really were 1275 vehicles unloaded.

Thought tanks were only useful in Ukraine when the ground is cold and hard.

Can a Bradley navigate through mud?

Ukraine now has a lot of paved roads and paved areas where vehicles can park without having to wade through the mud. The Bradley is a lot lighter than an Abrams, but as @petit_bateau pointed out, it has higher ground pressure because of smaller treads.

And what's going on here?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616081111351980032

An AA system on a Moscow roof top indeed. Justification for a forthcoming full mobilization perhaps? "We must protect the Motherland at all costs!!!!!"

They are probably installing that to protect against long range drone attacks.

 

[nativewolf]

I think you mean the 13th Light Cavalry? Currently the 2nd squadron of the 13th Cav is active and that's part of the 1st Armored Division (3rd brigade). One brigade doesn't use anywhere near 1275 vehicles. A Cavalry unit is basically armed recon. Each squadron made up of 4 companies and a headquarters section. One is armor and the others are infantry with Bradleys. A company of tanks is around 14, I think an infantry company has a few more than that. So a squadron has around 100 vehicles.

1275 may be close to the total number of vehicles in the entire 1st Armored. If the US really has shipped that many to Europe, there may be a plan to hand a lot of them off to Ukraine. It's a curious thing if there really were 1275 vehicles unloaded.



Ukraine now has a lot of paved roads and paved areas where vehicles can park without having to wade through the mud. The Bradley is a lot lighter than an Abrams, but as @petit_bateau pointed out, it has higher ground pressure because of smaller treads.



They are probably installing that to protect against long range drone attacks.

It has lower ground ground pressure, much lower . 4psi lower which is about what lgp equipment presents such as a CMI 250 forestry mulcher . Bradley is quite good but not good enough to go through a soft swamp.

 

[heltok]

I'm reading the news. So many donations of new military equipment the last days. What changed? Did someone at Bilderberg decide that it's now okay to give this new equipment? Was it this guy:

 

[BitJam]

Thought tanks were only useful in Ukraine when the ground is cold and hard.

Tanks are also useful in the summer. They can't be used effectively in the two muddy seasons in the fall and in the spring.

 

[madodel]

*** Because a tank is an offensive weapon. That is exactly what they were designed for. And have been repeatedly used for ever since they were designed. ***

!!! Especially by the Germans, for offensive warfare !!!!

German Constitution:Article 26 : [Securing international peace] : (1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.

*** This is precisely why one has to very carefully write the legal opinion inside German government that allows Scholz to sign an export authorisation in good faith. (Because we all know that once they've been exported any such contract as you suggest signing, is not enforceable). ***

Yeah, would be embarrassing for those Leopards to all of a sudden show up in the Ardennes. ;-)

 

[wdolson]

It has lower ground ground pressure, much lower . 4psi lower which is about what lgp equipment presents such as a CMI 250 forestry mulcher . Bradley is quite good but not good enough to go through a soft swamp.

A Bradley might make it through some mud, but may bog down in other muddy areas.