Russia/Ukraine conflict

[bo3bdar]

Just a note of appreciation for this thread. I'm most a lurker now, but I read this often to get a rough idea of strategic thinking on Ukraine, outside of main stream media. I don't have a problem with MSM, but it's not particularly in depth, and you all provide interesting and timely insights, especially with euro insights.


I even appreciate the attempts at a balanced/alternative views from people like @BMW740iL. I like to try to understand deeper dives, not just gloss over details.

However- that post by @BMW740iL is some of the stupid and lamest tripe that I've read in 25 years. This is a complete waste of electrons and ridiculously, imcompetently, obviously Russian propaganda.

Pro tip: if you want someone like me to pay attention to your talking points, you cannot use moronic phrases like:

• Ukraine’s Mighty Wurlitzer has been dutifully amplified by the Western media
• independent experts often observe that Russia did dispatch most of Ukraine’s initial equipment and much of its manpower.
• compared to the highly motivated, well-trained and equipped, and more blonde Ukrainians.
• not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.
• peaceniks and other local groups. They usually skew geriatric and follow instructions

This is obviously written for people who have no concern about living or thinking in a reality based world, especially when things are not going their way.

Still I learned a new thing, the website naked capitalism is completely worthless and never worth reading.

 

[wdolson]

But how soon would this new munition be fielded and in what quantity?

Clearly the us state dept or something like that was setting the information space to announce a new weapons platform to attack crimea. Articles all over today. 300 Stryker would be nice too

These are a new weapon that may have been tested, but has not been deployed or manufactured in quantity. The good news is that it's made up of existing parts so manufacturing should go quickly once production gets going. It will take time to spin up production though. The Ukrainians may start getting some within a month or two, but they probably won't start getting good quantities until April or May.

 

[RobStark]

The Russian Duma rejected a proposal to defer mobilization of candidates and doctors of science.

https://news.russia.postsen.com/local/167821.html

The Kremlin is going to put a rifle in the hands of chemist and physicist and have them make a frontal assault in Bakhmut .

 

[petit_bateau]

Various recent reports that Germany wants US to put its hand in the vice alongside the German and Polish/Finnish/etc hands, i.e. USA must send M1 Abrams if Germany is to approve Leopard transfers. Apparently the UK's Challengers don't represent a big enough hand in the vice

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615797542238789633

Some folk beginning to talk loudly

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615966592252403720

(It has also been confirmed that the UK Challenger/etc package will include 70t bridging equipment, fantastic)

It is now confirmed that 20 of the UK-purchased ex-Belgian 155mm did arrive in Ukraine

Britain redeemed Belgian M109 ACSs from a private company for Ukraine

The United Kingdom redeemed Belgian M109 self-propelled howitzers from a private arms company for Ukraine

mil.in.ua

and have been active

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615446867801694210

All 8 of the Slovak Zuzanna 155mm now shipped to Ukraine. Another 16 in build being paid for by Germany/Denmark/Norway for deliver in 2023

https://mezha.media/en/2023/01/17/ukraine-has-already-received-8-zuzana-2-self-propelled-guns-from-slovakia-another-16-howitzers-will-arrive-during-2023

And the Swedish Archer 155mm also now going

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615755526318739457

.... Serbia repositioning itself, because it can see which way this is going

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615732085444026376

And all this before Ramstein !

 

[lolachampcar]

Russia is beginning to look like a frog in ever warmer water. I do wonder if there is truth to the myth that the frog never realizes they ultimately end up cooked.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Scholz and the German coalition looking weaker and more pathetic every day.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Scholz and the German coalition looking weaker and more pathetic every day.

This justified criticism can also be directed towards Switzerland.

"... ] Despite repeated pleas, Switzerland won’t allow Germany to give Ukraine much-needed Swiss-made air defense ammunition that can help protect Ukrainians from the Russian onslaught. [..."

World leaders should press Switzerland on arms deliveries to Ukraine

American and European leaders should make clear to their Swiss hosts that Bern’s position on the transfer of Gepard ammunition will incur consequences.

www.defensenews.com

 

[madodel]

Scholz and the German coalition looking weaker and more pathetic every day.

Could this all be because the Germans are afraid their tank may not do well in actual combat? The M1A1 has actually seen combat so the US knows how well it fights.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Could this all be because the Germans are afraid their tank may not do well in actual combat? The M1A1 has actually seen combat so the US knows how well it fights.

Do you think Finland would have bought them if they were crap?... Doesn't seem plausible to me...

 

[nativewolf]

These are a new weapon that may have been tested, but has not been deployed or manufactured in quantity. The good news is that it's made up of existing parts so manufacturing should go quickly once production gets going. It will take time to spin up production though. The Ukrainians may start getting some within a month or two, but they probably won't start getting good quantities until April or May.

Blah blah talking points by the manufacturer, I get that. Heck one of the sales engineers is a client. However....it does not exist yet as far as I know. Unless they secretly built 4-500 last year.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine​

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine

By The Associated Press
January 19, 2023, 1:08 PM

BRUSSELS -- The European Union's assembly called on the member states on Thursday to back the creation of a special court to judge any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine.

The nonbinding resolution was approved by a 472-19 vote with 33 abstentions in the European Parliament, and underscored the EU's willingness to make sure Moscow should be brought to justice for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [..."

EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of agression by Russia in Ukraine

abcnews.go.com

 

[wdolson]

This is probably a US Army unit deploying to Poland, but a trainload of Abrams and Bradleys was spotted in Poland

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615871972810067968

Could this all be because the Germans are afraid their tank may not do well in actual combat? The M1A1 has actually seen combat so the US knows how well it fights.

The Leopard has a mixed record. The Canadians used it in Afghanistan, the Germans in Kosovo, the Dutch in Bosnia, and the Turks in Syria. The Turks lost some to anti tank rockets, but I don't know how good the Turks are at combined arms combat. They may have left their Leopards unprotected like the Russians have done with their tanks.

Leopard 2 - Wikipedia

Blah blah talking points by the manufacturer, I get that. Heck one of the sales engineers is a client. However....it does not exist yet as far as I know. Unless they secretly built 4-500 last year.

Prototypes may have been built as a proof of concept, but manufacturing has not started. This is not something the Ukrainians are going to get very fast.

"EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine​

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine

By The Associated Press
January 19, 2023, 1:08 PM

BRUSSELS -- The European Union's assembly called on the member states on Thursday to back the creation of a special court to judge any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine.

The nonbinding resolution was approved by a 472-19 vote with 33 abstentions in the European Parliament, and underscored the EU's willingness to make sure Moscow should be brought to justice for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [..."

EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of agression by Russia in Ukraine

abcnews.go.com

Charging Russians with war crimes has the affect of trapping them in Russia or countries that will not extradite them, but in the real world it's going to have little affect other than that. A few might be fools and try to travel, get caught, and stand trial, but most of the war criminals will either die in combat in this war, or they will go back to Russia and will never get caught unless Russia breaks up and some of the new countries hand over accused war criminals in exchange for something they need or want.

I wouldn't discourage investigating war crimes, but I don't think it will come to much either. It's just the realities of the world we live in. We were able to catch and prosecute the war criminals of WW II because all the Axis powers were occupied by the Allies after the war. Nobody is going to occupy Russia after this war.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine​

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine

By The Associated Press
January 19, 2023, 1:08 PM

BRUSSELS -- The European Union's assembly called on the member states on Thursday to back the creation of a special court to judge any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine.

The nonbinding resolution was approved by a 472-19 vote with 33 abstentions in the European Parliament, and underscored the EU's willingness to make sure Moscow should be brought to justice for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [..."

EU assembly wants special court for Russia's war in Ukraine

The European Union’s parliament calls on the member states to back the creation of a special court to judge on any war crime of agression by Russia in Ukraine

abcnews.go.com

...] Charging Russians with war crimes has the affect of trapping them in Russia or countries that will not extradite them, but in the real world it's going to have little affect other than that. A few might be fools and try to travel, get caught, and stand trial, but most of the war criminals will either die in combat in this war, or they will go back to Russia and will never get caught unless Russia breaks up and some of the new countries hand over accused war criminals in exchange for something they need or want.

I wouldn't discourage investigating war crimes, but I don't think it will come to much either. It's just the realities of the world we live in. We were able to catch and prosecute the war criminals of WW II because all the Axis powers were occupied by the Allies after the war. Nobody is going to occupy Russia after this war.

I'm guessing everyone understands that. It's still the right thing to do. And the future isn't written in stone. I agree that the future of Russia looks grim, but no-one can really know what is going to happen when the Dictator and the minions around him hopefully looses their war in Ukraine.

 

[madodel]

Do you think Finland would have bought them if they were crap?... Doesn't seem plausible to me...

I have no idea what criteria the Finns used to evaluate or what their options were. @wdolson has said they have actually been used in combat but apparently not against opponents with their own MBTs. I understand that Germany has a deep dread of getting involved in any war but the opportunity to test a large weapon like that against a real adversary with similar weapon would be something they'd like to do to sell more of them or just to see it being used as it was intended.

 

[nativewolf]

More Bradley’s being announced today per many sites, guess we’ll wait in the official announcement but Bradley’s and MRAPs vs Stryker would seem to be more useful in the context of the battlefield.

Jdam is very powerful game changer but not without platforms. You have to accept attrition.

This weekend will be interesting, mulling over various announcements after the 20th joint meet

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I have no idea what criteria the Finns used to evaluate or what their options were. @wdolson has said they have actually been used in combat but apparently not against opponents with their own MBTs. I understand that Germany has a deep dread of getting involved in any war but the opportunity to test a large weapon like that against a real adversary with similar weapon would be something they'd like to do to sell more of them or just to see it being used as it was intended.

I'm guessing the Finns weighed the Leopards against the offerings from the UK, France and the US just like the Swedish Army did. And the opportunity to test the Leopards against the Dictator's Russia for some opportunity to sell some more unfortunately doesn't seem to do much against whatever is behind their deep dread of getting involved with Leopards. petit_bateau wrote a bit about what's holding Germany back not that long ago in the thread...

 

[RobStark]

I can't find it now, but about six months ago there was a map with the changing Russian objectives. Feb 24 was the entire country, by early March is was half the country, each month it went down to a smaller and smaller objective. Right now it's trying to capture two small towns in Donbas. The Russians have basically gone all in for a town of 10,000 and one of 70,000 before the war.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This is probably a US Army unit deploying to Poland, but a trainload of Abrams and Bradleys was spotted in Poland

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615871972810067968

These are probably part of the transport of 1275 pieces of heavy equipment that arrived a week ago by boat in Vlissingen in The Netherlands. It was said they will be used in Poland/Lithuania by the 13th Light Brigade of the US Army. Here's a report from a Dutch newspaper with a lot of pictures.

Amerikaans spektakel: leger is begonnen met uitladen van 1275 tanks in Vlissingen

In de haven van Vlissingen is het Amerikaanse leger begonnen met het uitladen van 1275 tanks, artilleriegeschut en ander militair materieel. De gevechtsvoertuigen gaan naar Polen en Litouwen, waar ze gebruikt worden door een Amerikaanse legereenheid uit Texas. Zij lossen collega’s af voor een...

www.pzc.nl

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Denmark will send 19 Ceasar self-propelled howitzers. As the defence correspondent at the Danish Public Service Broadcasting Corporation put it: 'That's basically the entire Danish Artillery'...

But then again... They're in a 'somewhat advantageous geographical position', aren't they...

UKR already has some 24 of these, so they will hopefully be in action soon...

Source (in Danish):

Danmark vil sende længe ventet våbensystem til Ukraine

Det er "praktisk talt hele det danske artilleri", der bliver sendt til Ukraine, siger forsvarskorrespondent.

www.dr.dk

CAESAR self-propelled howitzer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[scratch]

More Bradley’s being announced today per many sites, guess we’ll wait in the official announcement but Bradley’s and MRAPs vs Stryker would seem to be more useful in the context of the battlefield.

Thought tanks were only useful in Ukraine when the ground is cold and hard.

Can a Bradley navigate through mud?