--> Read an analysis about this on a Swedish blog about the war. Made a quick English Google translate.
NOTE: THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS IN RED AT THE END OF THE TEXT BELOW:
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ANALYSIS – UKRAINE MAY NEED TO WITHDRAW TO BETTER DEFENSE POSITIONS IN DONETSK IN COMING WEEKS – WESTERN SUPPORT TOO SLOW
Russia has tactically adapted and changed its operational behavior and the new tactic of meat waves of [regular soldiers] storming Ukrainian positions in the best Stalinist fashion –
quantity is a quality in itself – unfortunately works for several reasons. On the one hand, the meat waves will act as minesweepers and gradually grind down prepared Ukrainian defense lines until Ukraine's fieldworks no longer gives any advantage. On the one hand, it is a shift from modern mobile maneuver warfare to a more static model, which makes it easier for Russia to manage the logistics, which in principle become fixed infrastructure. Russia can also, due to the slow advances, constantly improve its own positions via field work and thus become increasingly better at resisting indirect fire and other long-range combat. [They] can place static logistics hubs and command locations out of reach of HIMARS, because the front is static, and you can make maximum use of infrastructure such as rail, combined with established logistics routes [for the last ’stretch’ to the frontlines].
In short, the meat waves favor Russia, and the only price [they] have to pay is massive losses in manpower, [men that Russia doesn’t give a [beep] about anyway].
Ukraine's defense line in Donetsk is thus worn down right now, while there will be no break in the attacks against the Ukrainian defenders. The defenders are thus exhausted and have increasingly poor defensive positions, while Russian troops die and the next attack wave of new soldiers are thus not tired.
See serious commenters like
Jay in Kyjiv like
and this one. There are many more examples.
This has led to Russia being on the verge of breakthroughs south and north of Bakhmut and what the blog called
the Donbas Bulge this spring is becoming a new small
Donetsk bulge east of Siversk, which like Bakhmut is in danger of being cut off. To the extent that they are not cut off, the logistics become increasingly tough for both the [Donetsk] bulge and Bakhmut.
At the same time, there is increasing talk that Russia is building up for a major offensive around the anniversary of the invasion. This at the same time as the Ukrainian defense positions are worn down and the minefields are gone under the feet and bodies of the meat waves.
Ukraine can neutralize all this by retreating to new defensive lines, which have presumably been dug and mined in recent months.
Sometimes you have to give up terrain and territory to win. […]
A retreat to new, fresh defense lines, with [new undamaged] defenses, mines, etc. accomplishes several things.
On the one hand, it forces Russia into mobile maneuver warfare. When Russian units have to leave their field work behind, they become vulnerable to long-range combat and will be forced to group unprotected.
[On the other hand], the logistics lines that in practice have become fixed infrastructure in recent months stop working and must be replaced by vulnerable new dynamic logistics lines. A new line of defense further west also moves further away from the railway on which Russia is completely dependent to deliver troops, materiel, ammunition and supplies.
In short, a retreat would stretch Russian logistics lines and make them more vulnerable.
The area from which you retreat will be mined and you will, of course, conduct a delay battle in this delay area while the new defense line is [manned]
.
Above all, a planned Russian armored offensive around the 24th will be neutralized - it will not be against Ukrainian troops without mines left in front of their defensive positions, but directly against defended minefields. Ukrainian troops will thus not run the risk of being defeated, but the losses end up on the Russian side. […]
However, such a small retreat will be played up as a huge victory in Russian propaganda, but it is an operationally correct decision. It's not about winning the battle for Bakhmut, but the war for Ukraine.
The risk is that the Kremlin's useful idiots and paid influence operators in the West, including among politicians, will take every small Ukrainian operational retreat as an excuse to demand concessions from the Kremlin ("negotiated settlement"). Don't let them do it. […]
So don't be surprised if Ukraine retreats on the northern Donetsk front in the coming weeks.
It's not a Russian victory, it makes operational sense and don't let it become an excuse for Kremlin henchmen to demand concessions from Russia, Moscow, the Kremlin and Putin (as in “negotiate”). [..."
The original text (in Swedish):
Ryssland tar återigen extrema förluster på rekordnivå. Dagens artikel innehåller en mindre trevlig analys, då Västs saktfärdiga stöd och Rysslands köttvågstaktiska anpassning gör att Ukraina de kommande veckorna kan behöva retirera till nya försvarslinjer på norra Donetskfronten innan Ryssland inled
cornucopia.se
www.theguardian.com
kyivindependent.com
github.com
